Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 7

Week 6 was an odd one for me. I blew the Lions-Saints and Ravens-Bears - in my heart of hearts I knew those picks were the psychological equivalent of fake news, but I got taken in by them anyway. By conventional scoring I was 2-6 through the early games, but won all the late ones and Sunday and Monday night to go 8-6. I won my best bet (Vikings), with an assist from the Aaron Rodgers injury, and went 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest.

This week there are seven home dogs in 15 games, and while I used to take them reflexively, I'll only do so now when I'm feeling it. I just happened to feel it with six of them, i.e., every one except the Bears. Actually, I'm not feeling the Packers that much - I have a nagging Saints feeling, but selling the Saints high after a three-TD game from their defense and buying the Packers at rock bottom without Rodgers has to be the right play, doesn't it? I told myself I was done with the sharp/square meta-analysis, and that I'd just stick to the games, but I made an exception there. I'll give myself the radical subjectivity "L" in advance. Even a totally subjective reality is subject to question.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chiefs -3 at Raiders

I hate the Raiders, I think Derek Carr is overrated, and I like what the Chiefs have done this year. That said, give me a back-to-the-wall home dog on Thursday night.

Raiders 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Titans -6 at Browns

I've taken the Browns quite a bit this year, and it's been the wrong call nearly every time. But this is a lot of points on the road for a team with a bad defense. I'm holding my nose and taking the points.

Titans 27 - 23

Jaguars -3 at Colts

The Jaguars defense is good, but unlike Ben Roethlisberger who threw five interceptions into it, Jacoby Brissett will likely play it safe, settle for short throws and scramble. Unless a banged-up Leonard Fournette goes nuts, that should be enough to keep it close. Take the points.

Jaguars 17 - 16

Ravens +5.5 at Vikings

I was dumb enough to back the Ravens last week even though my first instinct was to take the Bears, and I won't do it again. It's possible they get it together offensively, but this is a tough place to do it. Take the Vikings.

Vikings 23 - 9

Jets +3 at Dolphins

The Dolphins are somehow 3-2 despite an awful showing, but I'll lay the wood here. Their defense is playing better, they're at home, and the Jets are probably still bad, their decent start notwithstanding.

Dolphins 24 - 17

Buccaneers +3 at Bills

The Buccaneers are a below-average team, and it doesn't matter much whether Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston is under center. That said, I'll take the points here. The Bills have no passing game of which to speak, and even their once vaunted running game has struggled this year.

Buccaneers 20 - 17

Panthers -3.5 at Bears

My first instinct was to lay the wood, and I'll stick with it. The Bears simply have no one to throw the ball to, and Carolina's defense is stout. Take the Panthers.

Panthers 24 - 16

Saints -5.5 at Packers

How many points is Aaron Rodgers worth? From this line, it looks like about 10, which is probably a bit too much. Take the Packers who put up a fight.

Saints 24 - 20

Cardinals +3.5 vs.* Rams

I don't like the Cardinals, and I'd like to fade the Adrian Peterson hype, but I think this will be a tight game between division rivals. Take the points.

* game in London

Cardinals 27 - 24

LATE GAMES

Cowboys -6 at 49ers

It doesn't matter much to me that Zeke Elliott's playing. The 49ers have gone toe to toe with everyone that's been put in front of them, and while the contrarian in me wants to take Dallas just because, I don't think they're very good. Take the points.

49ers 24 - 20

Bengals +5.5 at Steelers

Both teams play good defense, but the Steelers run block so much better than the Bengals, and Ben Roethlisberger has played far better at home the last few years. Lay the wood.

Steelers 30 - 23

Seahawks -6 at Giants

I could see the Seahawks crushing here, but the Giants defense has the personnel to be elite, and taking the play calling away from Ben McAdoo has got to be worth a field goal by itself. Take the points.

Seahawks 17 - 13

Broncos +1.5 at Chargers

My first instinct was to take the Chargers, and I'll stick with it, though the "buy Denver low" and "never take the Chargers at home" voices are in my head. Take San Diego Los Angeles.

Chargers 21 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Falcons +3.5 at Patriots

I've faded the Patriots once this year - the week they covered in New Orleans. Besides that I've taken them every week, and they've covered only once - by half a point in Tampa Bay. I keep waiting for them to turn it on, and they haven't. The Falcons are lost on offense, but there's no better get-well opponent than New England right now. Then there's the whole Super Bowl-collapse psychology which you can spin either way. This is a coin flip, but I laid the points.

Patriots 30 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Redskins +4.5 at Eagles

The Eagles looked great Thursday night against the Panthers and have extra rest, while the Redskins were life and death with the 49ers at home. Still, I'll take the points in a tough division rivalry game where either team can win. Back the Redskins.

Eagles 27 - 24

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I went 8-6 against the spread in Week 6 to put me at 49-40-2 on the season. I went 3-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 16-14 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.