Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 7

Using my own lines panned out better last week with a 10-4-1 showing, and I'll keep doing it until I have a reason not to. I should have made the Dolphins an official best bet here, but I did not, and I realize I've neglected that practice and will try to pick 1-2 most weeks.

This week, I was suprised to see a lot of my lines were exactly the same as Vegas', and I'm not only talking about obvious three or seven pointers. As I mentioned last week, the trickiest aspect of this is making sure I'm actually setting my own lines rather than trying to *guess* what they will actually be.

This week I especially like the Chiefs, Bears and Vikings. I'll make the Chiefs my best bet for now and might add another in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Bears +9 at Packers

I have a bounce-back feeling about the Packers, especially with the Bears having to travel on a short week, but I toggled between 6.5 and seven for this and eventually settled on 6.5. So my mind is a bit blown the Packers - given how poorly they've played - are favored by nine. Of course, they'll probably blow Chicago out, but this line is all set-up and no value. Take the Bears.

Packers 23 - 17

LONDON GAME

Giants -3 vs. Rams

I was going to take the Rams here as I set the line at Giants -1.5, but that was assuming it was in Los Angeles! Now that I realize it's in London, 1.5 equals 4.5 when you get rid of the home field. As such I'll take the Giants, but I expect Ben McAdoo to blow this.

Giants 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Vikings -2.5 at Eagles

The Vikings are 18-3 against the spread in their last 21, and while normally that would cause me to fade them, the oddsmakers never get carried away when setting their lines. I had Minnesota minus three, so I'll take the square side. Back the Vikings.

Vikings 20 - 17

Saints +6.5 at Chiefs

I was toggling between 7.5 and eight with the Saints on the road in a tough venue, so laying less than seven is an easy call for me. Back the Chiefs.

Chiefs 30 - 13

Redskins +1.5 at Lions

This was one of the odd lines I set exactly where Vegas did. I hate this game anyway between two mediocre teams that serve no purpose whatsoever, but I suppose I'll take the Redskins.

Lions 31 - 30

Browns +10 at Bengals

I knew this line would be bigger than you'd think based on the Bengals performance to date - a home game against a doormat is just what the ostensibly good team needs to get back on track and is often the recipe for a blowout. I thought I was being aggressive with nine, but apparently not. I guess I'm on the Browns again.

Bengals 27 - 19

Bills -3 at Dolphins

I had the Bills minus 2.5. I love what they've done with Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy, and the Dolphins are still a bad team despite their trashing of Pittsburgh. But the full three is too much for a Bills team that does nothing through the air. Back the Dolphins.

Dolphins 19 - 17

Raiders +1 at Jaguars

This is where I had the line as well. Another game between two teams on which I have no interest betting. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take Oakland.

Raiders 24 - 23

Colts +2.5 at Titans

I'm not sure what business the Colts have being less than three point dogs on the road. I set it at three and was actually surprised these weren't considered equal teams. Lay the wood.

Titans 23 - 20

Ravens +1 at Jets

I had this one as Ravens minus 1.5, and while that's not a huge difference, I like Baltimore to bounce back against what looks like one of the league doormats. Take Baltimore.

Ravens 23 - 19

LATE GAMES

Chargers +6.5 at Falcons

I had this line at exactly 6.5, the same number the Falcons were underdogs to the Seahawks last week. As impressive as Atlanta's run the last two weeks has been, I'll say the Chargers hang around. Take the points.

Falcons 27 - 23

Buccaneers -2 at 49ers

I set this line at four actually, which might be too much, but the 49ers are not good at any aspect of the game, and Tampa, while limited, has at least been tough against the run. Lay the wood.

Buccaneers 23 - 17

Patriots -7 at Steelers

This is exactly where I set the line too. Landry Jones threw four picks in 55 attempts last year, but he moved the ball decently with 9.3 YPA. The Pats are probably the best team in the league, but I think the Steelers show up this week. Take the points.

Patriots 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Seahawks +2 at Cardinals

I had this line at Seahawks -1.5, so I'm taking the points. I'm still not sold on the Cardinals of 2016.

Seahawks 24 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Texans +7 at Broncos

This is also where I set the line. In a low scoring game, seven is a lot, but I'll lay the wood against Brock Osweiler in Denver. Back the Broncos.

Broncos 24 - 13

I went 10-4-1 last week to go 46-45-1 on the season. I'm 0-1 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.