This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
What a disastrous week. I actually missed the live early games due to a dinner party invite I couldn't turn down, and noticed I was 4-5 heading into the late games. Unfortunately I watched all four, and it was a clean sweep. The worst was a horrible beat with the Chargers who were up 13 with the ball with six minutes to go, but that's how it goes when you're having a day like that. Worse still, the Cardinals were my survivor pick.
The Sunday and Monday night games were the kick in the ass on the way out the door. For whatever reason I'm 1-7 on those YTD, more than offsetting the 4-0 on Thursday night. There's no bright side here, but I did neglect to pick any best bets, and those would have been either the Cardinals, Chargers or Giants, all of whom failed to cover.
This week, I wanted to try something different. Rather than fixating on public/sharp or consulting anyone's "objective" analytics, I simply looked up the schedule, made the line as if I were Vegas, i.e., where would I set it to make a profit with the vig, and compared it to the actual lines. Where the Vegas line fell short of mine, I'd take the favorite. Where it exceeded, I'd take the dog. If it were the same, I'd make a gut call. I'm not saying this is a good idea, mind you, only that the angles I had been taking weren't working,
What a disastrous week. I actually missed the live early games due to a dinner party invite I couldn't turn down, and noticed I was 4-5 heading into the late games. Unfortunately I watched all four, and it was a clean sweep. The worst was a horrible beat with the Chargers who were up 13 with the ball with six minutes to go, but that's how it goes when you're having a day like that. Worse still, the Cardinals were my survivor pick.
The Sunday and Monday night games were the kick in the ass on the way out the door. For whatever reason I'm 1-7 on those YTD, more than offsetting the 4-0 on Thursday night. There's no bright side here, but I did neglect to pick any best bets, and those would have been either the Cardinals, Chargers or Giants, all of whom failed to cover.
This week, I wanted to try something different. Rather than fixating on public/sharp or consulting anyone's "objective" analytics, I simply looked up the schedule, made the line as if I were Vegas, i.e., where would I set it to make a profit with the vig, and compared it to the actual lines. Where the Vegas line fell short of mine, I'd take the favorite. Where it exceeded, I'd take the dog. If it were the same, I'd make a gut call. I'm not saying this is a good idea, mind you, only that the angles I had been taking weren't working, so I wanted to shake things up.
By the way, now that I look at my picks, I hate a few of them, particularly the Niners, Browns and Cowboys. The ones I like best are the Rams and Lions.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cardinals -4 at 49ers
I pegged this one at Cardinals minus 3.5, and they're laying four. Hardly a major disparity, but with Carson Palmer struggling (and concussed) and the short week road game, I'll take the home dog. Back the 49ers.
Cardinals 20 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Texans +6 at Vikings
I made the line on this one eight, and it's actually on the other side of the key number. The Vikings seem to exceed their predictive metrics every week - it's why they're 17-3 ATS over their last 20 games, but Vegas (and the public) never seem to adjust. Lay the wood.
Vikings 23 - 9
Titans +3.5 at Dolphins
I made this line three - roughly equal teams - but the Dolphins are laying the extra hook. Take the Titans.
Dolphins 20 - 17
Patriots -10.5 at Browns
I made this line 7.5, but with Tom Brady back Vegas set it all the way to 10.5, meaning it would be 16.5 in New England. I get it, but I expect the Browns to compete, and Brady could have a little rust. Take Cleveland.
Patriots 26 - 16
Jets +7 at Steelers
I had this line at seven, and Vegas agrees. I suppose the Jets are the buy-low here, so I'll take the points.
Steelers 24 - 20
Redskins +3.5 at Ravens
I had this line at exactly 3.5, but I like the Ravens at home, even though they didn't come through last week. Expect Kirk Cousins to turn it over a couple times. Lay the wood.
Ravens 27 - 20
Eagles -3 at Lions
The Eagles are off to a great start, and it's a revenge game of sorts for defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. But I had this game pegged as a pick 'em, and three is a lot for the Eagles on the road. Take Detroit.
Lions 23 - 20
Bears +4.5 at Colts
I put this one at three and a half. Andrew Luck is better at home, but the Colts offensive line is terrible, their defense is suspect and they're coming back from a game in London without a bye week. Take the points.
Colts 30 - 27
LATE GAMES
Falcons +6 at Broncos
I had this at 6.5, so I'll narrowly take Denver. Like Minnesota, they've been underestimated, and I wonder if defense-heavy teams don't get their due. Lay the wood.
Broncos 24 - 13
Bills +2.5 at Rams
I pegged this line at 5.5, so apparently I was way off. I suppose the Bills are getting credit for their shutout of the Patriots, but the Rams defense is better, and both teams have major issues offensively. Lay the wood.
Rams 23 - 16
Chargers +3.5 at Raiders
I hate the Chargers, but I don't respect the Raiders, either, and had this line pegged at three. Take the points.
Chargers 24 - 23
Bengals -1 at Cowboys
I had this as Bengals +2.5, but in truth anything less than three on either side of zero isn't very significant. Put differently, my less-than-three-point dog designation isn't much different than one-point favorite. But I'll stick to my guns and take Dallas at home.
Cowboys 20 - 19
SUNDAY NIGHT
Giants +7.5 at Packers
I had this at 5.5, but I knew the Vegas line would be higher. For whatever reason, the books love the Packers, probably more than they deserve. I usually love the Giants as underdogs, but their coach is such a moron, I'm not even sure about that anymore. In any event, take the points.
Packers 27 - 24
MONDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers +7 at Panthers
The Buccaneers have looked like garbage lately, and I'm not sure what's wrong with Jameis Winston. But I had this line at six (assuming Cam Newton is okay), and that means I'm taking Tampa again. The Panthers defense isn't very good, and the Bucs will get their backdoor cover. Take the points.
Panthers 31 - 27
I went 4-11 last week to go 29-34 on the season. I'm 0-1 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
