Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4

I went 8-8 last week, and there's not much to say about it. I got lucky with the Colts (you should acknowledge good beats if you're going to complain about bad ones) but can't seem to buy a win on Sunday or Monday nights. I went 2-4 on "coin flips" and 1-2 on the games that came easily to me, so it's no surprise I was .500.

This week the games that came to me right away were the Ravens, Jets, 49ers, Buccaneers, Chargers, Giants and Cardinals. Lions-Bears, Chiefs-Steelers, Browns-Redskins and Titans-Texans were coin flips.

I'll pick one or two best bets in the comments. Right now, candidates are the Cardinals, Bucs and Chargers.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Dolphins +7 at Bengals

It's hard to know exactly who these teams are. The Dolphins played tough on the road against the Seahawks and Patriots, but then should have lost at home to the Browns. The Bengals seemed to have a good defense, but got lit up at home by Trevor Siemian. If this game were on Sunday, I'd probably take Miami, but off the short week and emotionally taxing win, I'll lay the points.

Bengals 24 - 16

LONDON GAME

Colts -2.5 vs. Jaguars

This game is in London on a neutral field, and the line is about right. I expect a high-scoring contest but trust Andrew Luck and the Colts a little more than mistake-prone Blake Bortles. Lay the wood.

Colts 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Browns +8 at Redskins

The Browns are a bad team, but they've competed their last two games, and the Redskins secondary is banged up. I don't feel great about it because Kirk Cousins could light them up, but eight is a little too many. Take the points.

Redskins 27 - 20

Bills +5.5 at Patriots

This is a tough one. I'd sell the Bills high off the upset, but the Pats are a public team and doing it with smoke and mirrors without their best players at full capacity. Plus, Rex Ryan is at least familiar with Bill Belichick. I suppose I'll take the points and expect a close game. Back the Bills.

Bills 20 - 16

Seahawks -3 at Jets

The Seahawks are one of the three best teams in the NFL, but they're laying points on the road with a gimpy Russell Wilson, so I'll fade them. Back the Jets.

Jets 16 - 13

Panthers -3 at Falcons

I've been a Falcons hater the last couple years, but they went into New Orleans and took care of the Saints despite getting nothing from Julio Jones. I'm not saying they're a good team, but as a three-point home dog against the Panthers, I'll back them. Take the points.

Panthers 24 - 23

Lions -3 at Bears

I'm sick of taking the Bears because "the sharps must be on them," and now their injury report is like "War and Peace". But I'm going back to the well out of principle once more. Take the points.

Lions 24 - 23

Titans +5.5 at Texans

With J.J. Watt out, these are roughly equal teams. I'll take the one getting more than three on the road. Back Tennessee.

Texans 20 - 17

Raiders +3.5 at Ravens

I like the Ravens at home typically, and while I don't love parting with the hook, I'd make Baltimore a favorite on a neutral field. Lay the wood.

Ravens 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Broncos -3 at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have laid an egg two straight games, but that makes them a buy low at home against the Broncos whose stock is at an all time high after winning in Cincinnati and getting a strong performance from Trevor Siemian. Take the Bucs.

Buccaneers 20 - 19

Cowboys -3 at 49ers

This is another "hold your nose and take the home dog." Don't worry about the how, just trust this line would move much higher if it were up to the public.

49ers 24 - 20

Saints +4 at Chargers

I typically take the Saints at home, fade them on the road. Drew Brees is essentially a league-average QB away from Coors Field, and the Chargers should score points against this defense. Lay the wood.

Chargers 30 - 23

Rams +8 at Cardinals

The Cardinals had an off game on the road against the Bills, but that makes them a good buy-low here. They're one of the teams like the Saints and Ravens I like a good deal better at home too. Back Arizona.

Cardinals 27 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +5.5 at Steelers

I could go either way on this. I like Andy Reid's ability to game plan but Ben Roethlisberger has been a monster at home the last couple seasons, and that should put a fair amount of pressure on Alex Smith to keep up. Even so, this is pretty much a coin toss, and I'll take the points. Back the Chiefs.

Steelers 27 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants +4.5 at Vikings

I like the Giants as dogs, even with their horrible coach. In some ways, Ben McAdoo's dink and dunk style is a cover-and-lose recipe - as long as Eli Manning doesn't go turnover crazy against a tough defense. The Vikings are 16-3 against the spread in their last 19, but I'll take the points.

Vikings 20 - 17

I went 8-8 last week to go 25-23 on the season. I'm 0-1 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.