Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 2

I'm happy with a 10-6 start, though I was 10-3 before the Sunday and Monday night games, and should have been 11-2 before the Raiders were bailed out by a PI call on a pass that was uncatchably out of bounds on a fourth-down try that would have ended the game. Annoying as that was, I'm sure I've conveniently forgotten plenty of bad calls that went in my favor too.

I was 2-2 on my "easy calls" including the Saints loss, and I went 4-1 on coin flips, meaning my 10-6 was a bit lucky on the whole.

This week I had a tougher time picking the sides I wanted. Easiest ones were the Giants, Vikings, Redskins and Bears. Coin flips were the Jets, Cardinals, Colts, Raiders and Lions.

I'll make the Giants a best bet.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Jets pick 'em at Bills

This is a tough call because the principle "fade the obvious public side," i.e., take the Bills, conflicts with everything we know about the personnel of these teams. With Sammy Watkins hobbled, the Bills will run, and the Jets are great against the run, especially now that Sheldon Richardson is back from his suspension. Usually, the principle trumps personnel and matchup analysis which is baked into the line already, but I'll be the sucker who takes the Jets.

Jets 23 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Titans +5.5 at Lions

I'm not necessarily buying into the Lions, but the Titans gave Andre Johnson seven targets last week. They're fumbling around in the dark. Lay the wood.

Lions 27 - 20

Chiefs +2.5 at Texans

I could go either way here. The Chiefs defense is not quite itself yet, and while they were able to mount a comeback against a weak San Diego defense, I expect tougher sledding in Houston. Back the Texans.

Texans 20 - 17

Dolphins +6.5 at Patriots

The Patriots somehow won in Arizona, a team on the short list of preseason Super Bowl contenders, despite missing Rob Gronkowski, Pro Football Focus' best offensive player and Tom Brady, arguaby the greatest player ever. It's mind-boggling, but it also makes them a nice fade this week against a game Miami team that usually plays them tough. Take the points,

Patriots 20 - 19

Ravens -6.5 at Browns

What a crazy line. That means it would be 12.5 if the game were in Baltimore, and based on what? A close win at home against the depleted Bills? I like the Ravens, think they were unlucky last year and believe in the coaching staff. But this assumes too much based on one week. Take the Browns.

Ravens 26 - 23

Bengals +3.5 at Steelers

Essentially, these are equal teams, and the Bengals are getting half a point more than an equal team on the road should. Take the points.

Steelers 27 - 24

Cowboys +3 at Redskins

I wasn't impressed with the Cowboys' dink and dunk offense which requires a lot of first downs to score and whose scores are often of the three-point variety. The Redskins looked shaky in Week 1, but I think they'll bounce back against a weaker opponent. Lay the wood.

Redskins 24 - 20

Saints +4.5 at Giants

I shudder to think of all the running plays Ben McAdoo will call when Odell Beckham could score at will should he ever call his number against the worst and now most depleted secondary in the league. Still Drew Brees is merely average on the road, and the Giants defense is underrated. Take the Giants.

Giants 31 - 23

49ers +13.5 at Panthers

When's the last time a team that led the NFL in point differential (h/t Dalton Del Don) was a 13.5-point underdog? Either the Niners are much better under Chip Kelly, or there's just something flukey about that second, late Monday night game on opening week. (Remember the Niners crushed the Vikings in Week 1 last year too.) Whatever the explanation, this is a good bounce back spot for a rested Carolina team. I'll lay the wood.

Panthers 31 - 13

LATE GAMES

Buccaneers +6.5 at Cardinals

This is a tough call because I like the Bucs as an up and coming team, but I like the Cardinals as a buy-low after a bad loss. Moreover, Carson Palmer looked okay to me. Take Arizona who pulls away late.

Cardinals 28 - 20

Seahawks -6 at Rams

The Seahawks always seem to struggle against the Rams, and this is a good buy-low after the disaster against the 49ers on Monday night. This line was off the board in some places due to Russell Wilson's ankle injury, but I saw one at 3.5, one at seven and one at six. I went with the median. Take the Rams.

Seahawks 14 - 13

Colts +6 at Broncos

Can the Colts protect Andrew Luck? That's what this game boils down to. If Luck has time, he can keep pace with the Broncos anemic offense. If not, it'll be the C.J. Anderson show. I'm on the fence, but I'll take the points.

Broncos 19 - 17

Falcons +5 at Raiders

I'd love to fade both these teams - the overhyped Raiders who were gifted a win on a bogus fourth-down PI call - and the Falcons who after starting 5-0 last year have been one of the league's doormats since. I'll hold my nose and lay the points as Atlanta is especially bad on the road.

Raiders 27 - 20

Jaguars +3 at Chargers

I love that Gus Bradley went for it on fourth down so often and with great success, and while the Jaguars lost the game, they had plenty of chances to win it and outperformed Green Bay on a per-play basis. The Chargers passing game wasn't the same last year after losing Keenan Allen, and their defense fell apart against the Chiefs in the second half. Take the points.

Jaguars 31 - 27

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers -2.5 at Vikings

All last year I waited for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to be the offensive juggernaut they'd been for half a decade, and it never happened. Through one week of 2016, I'm still waiting. Aaron Rodgers got 5.9 YPA including a miracle TD pass to Devante Adams as he was being sacked, and I don't like their chances going against a nasty Minnesota defense on the road. Take the points.

Vikings 20 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Eagles +3 at Bears

The Eagles are a franchise with hope after Carson Wentz' debut, while the Bears are still quarterbacked by Jay Cutler, no one's idea of a franchise's future. Still, I'll sell high here - Wentz is still learning, and Cutler for all his faults can be competent. Take the Bears.

Bears 24 - 20

I went 10-6 in Week 1. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.