ROLEX GRANDE PRÊMIO DE SÃO PAULO 2023
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Course: Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
Course Length: 4.31km
Laps: 71
Grand Prix of Sao Paulo Race Preview
We've come to a fascinating part of the season, which may seem like a stretch because both championships are locked up. However, that is also what makes this part of the season interesting, as we see teams push toward their 2024 season in terms of concept and car setup. Given the cost cap, that can only go so far, but it's a tiny hint. So far, that hint suggests that Red Bull and Max Verstappen will face a stiffer challenge in 2024 of what is to come. Lewis Hamilton has finished second in consecutive races, though he was disqualified in first. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc has started consecutive races on pole. Finally, Lando Norris has finished on the podium in four of seven races since the summer break.
With that in mind, there's some optimism that Mercedes will earn their first race win of 2023. They've won six of the last eight Sao Paulo Grand Prix, including each of the last two when Verstappen was in an evenly matched and superior machinery, respectively.
The other prominent storyline is Sergio Perez's status at Red Bull. Daniel Ricciardo was excellent in his AlphaTauri last weekend, while Perez was overly aggressive on Turn 1 of the opening lap at his home race and was forced to retire as a result. The direct comparison of drivers heading in opposite directions is convincing some that Perez won't be back in 2024 despite having a contract in place.
Key Stats at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
- Races: 39
- Winners from pole: 16
- Winners from top-5 starters: 34
- Winners from top-10 starters: 39
Previous 10 Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace Winners
2022- George Russell
2021 - Lewis Hamilton
2019 - Max Verstappen
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Nico Rosberg
2013 - Sebastian Vettel
2012 - Jenson Button
The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace, better known as Interlagos, has been a staple on the F1 calendar since 1990. The only year skipped was in 2020 due to the abbreviated schedule, and it was announced Friday that the circuit will remain on the schedule through at least 2030.
This weekend will feature a sprint set up, meaning we'll get qualifying Friday before both the sprint shootout and race take place on Saturday. As always, Sunday features the traditional grand prix. Pirelli is sending the C2, C3 and C4 tires. The sprint format means the teams have 12 pairs of tires instead of 13, which could be important come Sunday. Drivers will have to avoid significant mistakes even more than is typically the case.
Overall, the circuit is well-rounded in terms of layout with long straights, low-speed corners and high-speed corners. It's also one of the shortest laps of the year. Most teams will likely run a two-stop race, though teams that typically run unique strategies – Williams comes to mind – could stick with a one-stop race.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo (Based on Standard $50k Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $16,400
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Lewis Hamilton- $9,800
Lando Norris- $9,400
Charles Leclerc - $8,600
Carlos Sainz Jr.- $8,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Daniel Ricciardo- $5,200
Esteban Ocon - $4,800
Valtteri Bottas - $4,400
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,000
Zhou Guanyu - $3,400
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull- $14,000
Mercedes - $9,800
McLaren - $9,000
Ferrari - $8,800
Alpine - $3,600
AlphaTauri - $3,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Team Captain – Lewis Hamilton - $14,700
Lando Norris - $9,400
Sergio Perez - $9,000
Charles Leclerc - $8,800
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,000
Constructor – Alpine - $3,600
Despite relative struggles in qualifying of late, Verstappen remains the elite option to build around. Unfortunately, he takes up just under 50 percent of the salary as captain. Because of that, I'll be looking elsewhere.
Hamilton is the obvious candidate given both the team and his own success at Interlagos, and his recent finishes in second place in consecutive races. He was disqualified from the first, but followed it with another strong result one week later. Mercedes' pace and driver/car combo appears to be best positioned to challenge Verstappen.
It may seem like an odd choice to roster Perez given that he's coming off the lowest point of his season after crashing out of his home race on the first turn. However, he is in a position where he'll need to perform to retain his Red Bull seat, and he also still provides exposure to the best car on the grid.
Leclerc has won consecutive podiums. While we know that Ferrari struggles with keeping that similar pace for an entire race due to tire management, that seems to be a dissipating problem. Leclerc found himself on the podium at Mexico, and Sainz also finished third at Circuit of the Americas. The Ferrari has pace, so Sainz would be a fine pivot. For the comparable price, I'll take the driver with a higher ceiling, which is Leclerc.
Tsunoda and Alpine are value options, and they open up the salary to pay up for the top options already covered. Tsunoda has a battle on his hands to beat his new teammate (Ricciardo), after essentially banking five free points while Nick De Vries started the season in the seat. However, he's still capable of a good drive and has shown he has pace. The key will be to avoid big errors, which he was unable to do in Mexico, which prevented him from sticking in a points position.
Alpine has been the cheap constructor to target all season, as they typically have one of Gasly or Ocon inside the top 10. Determining which drive will have success on a specific weekend is unclear so the value can come through the team instead.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Sprint Race Winner – Charles Leclerc (+1300), Carlos Sainz Jr. (+1800)
Podium Finish (Sunday Race) – Lewis Hamilton (-175), Sergio Perez (+175)
Points Finish (Sunday Race) – Yuki Tsunoda, Daniel Ricciardo (both +120), Alex Albon (+145)
Winning Margin – Under 6 seconds (+195)
Much of the logic for these picks follows everything already stated throughout this article. The sprint race helps Ferrari with tire wear, mitigating the primary weakness of the car. Both Leclerc and Sainz are viable, but I prefer Leclerc.
Hamilton has been the "best of the rest" after Verstappen of late. His odds are too short to present value, but he does have a strong chance of earning a podium finish. If Perez can avoid mistakes, he still drives the best car on the grid and should be able to fend off his closest rivals.
AlphaTauri has proven to have the pace to contend for points. They also have relatively short odds, but with the fall of Aston Martin and the inconsistency of pace from the teams around them in terms of competing for points (Alpine and Williams)
This has the potential to be one of the most competitive races of the season, so whoever finds themselves in second place should be able to keep a reasonable gap in Verstappen. If Verstappen isn't winning, the chance of a competitive race only increases
