MSC Cruises Sao Paulo Grand Prix
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Course: Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
Course Length: 4.31km
Laps: 71
Grand Prix of Sao Paulo Race Preview
This week, Formula 1 heads back to Sao Paulo where Max Verstappen delivered a stunning victory last season from 17th on the grid in tricky wet conditions. That win helped him in eventually shoring up his fourth driver's title, and he will need another decisive drive this week if he is to chase down the two McLaren drivers to add a fifth to his collection. After making ground on Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris over the last few races, Norris landed a crucial win at Mexico to wrest the points lead from Piastri while Verstappen finished third.
The defending champion is now 36 points behind Norris, the championship leader, with only four races to overcome the deficit. With time running out, the margin for error is getting smaller each week. Verstappen won the last two Brazilian races and needs to keep winning in order to keep his championship hopes alive, while McLaren are hoping to make the title a two-horse race. This week's trip south to Brazil, with extra points on offer from a sprint race on Saturday, could be a make-or-break race any of the three contenders that could shape the championship picture as the end of the season draws near.
Key Stats at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace
- Races: 41
- Winners from pole: 18
- Winners from top-5 starters: 35
- Winners from top-10 starters: 40
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 210.627 kph
Previous 10 Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace Winners
2024 - Max Verstappen
2023 - Max Verstappen
2022 - George Russell
2021 - Lewis Hamilton
2019 - Max Verstappen
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Sebastian Vettel
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
2014 - Nico Rosberg
Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace is a natural terrain road course with plenty of elevation changes and a mixture of low- to medium-speed corners. After a challenging wet weekend last season, Pirelli will bring a harder tire compound to the track this time after the lone dry practice last year saw significant degradation of the softer tire version. The weather is always changeable at this track and teams have to be prepared for wet weather, though. The most likely day for wet running will be Saturday's sprint race, but being situated in tropical Brazil, anything is possible throughout the weekend.
As for passing at the track, one of the best opportunities to make a move is at the end of the long front straight into turn 1 after the second of two DRS zones on the lap. Drivers will enable drag reduction systems to catch and out brake opponents there as well as into turn 4 where some moves can also be tried, though braking there is not as heavy. The weekend's sprint format offers extra points, but it shortens preparation for Sunday. Teams need to get their programs completed Friday in a single practice session before qualifying for Saturday's sprint race kicks off in the afternoon.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo (Based on Standard $50k Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $13,400
Lando Norris - $13,000
Oscar Piastri - $12,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
George Russell - $11,000
Charles Leclerc - $10,600
Lewis Hamilton - $8,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $5,600
Isack Hadjar - $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
DraftKings Constructor Values
McLaren - $13,700
Ferrari - $11,000
Red Bull Racing - $9,700
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Team Captain - Lando Norris - $19,500
Fernando Alonso - $6,200
Isack Hadjar - $5,200
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
Oliver Bearman - $4,400
Constructor - Red Bull Racing - $9,700
There are a few paths to take in constructing a roster for this week's Sao Paulo Grand Prix. Of the top three driver choices to win this week, Lando Norris seems to have the most momentum, though. Max Verstappen won the last two Brazailian races, but last year's victory came under very unique circumstances. On a normal day, the McLaren car is at least the equal of Verstappen and Red Bull, and this should be a week that Norris can rise to the occasion again. He just took the lead in the championship and put his car on pole at this track last season. Were it not for a treacherous race with unique incidents, Norris might have come out on top in the race, too. In fact, Norris was second in this race the year prior when McLaren was not as good. Therefore, Norris may be the wiser choice this week over Verstappen or Piastri.
In the mid-pack choices, Fernando Alonso, despite his struggles, still makes sense. The veteran retired from the Mexico race, but he had two finishes in the points in the two races prior. The year has been up and down for him with Aston Martin, but he consistently scores points when he is able to get to the finish. After a hard race last time out, both he and the team should be committed and focused on getting him across the finish line in Brazil where he has an average finish of 7.4 from 21 career starts.
Isack Hadjar also continues to be in position for points finishes. He finished 13th a week ago in Mexico after a tough race where he started eighth. The team's strategy had him in the points during the running, but having to switch to used tires at the end cost him some places. With a few adjustments, Hadjar and team should be able to close out opportunities like that and return to finishes in the points. Doing so will help him inch closer to a top-10 finish in the standings in his rookie season.
Nico Hulkenberg is the driver Hadjar is trying to chase down in the standings. The veteran Sauber driver sits ninth in the championship after picking up an eighth-place finish at Circuit of the Americas, one of his six points-paying finishes this season. His success at that circuit, with its varying turns and significant elevation changes, could bode well for his chances this week in Brazil, too. He spun off course in the wet conditions last season, but should have the upper hand on his teammate this time with a clean race.
Oliver Bearman also snagged points at COTA. In fact, the Haas rookie picked up points in each of the last three races and four of the last six. Bearman is finding his groove and has been very consistent, scoring finishes between seventh and 12th in 10 of the last 11 races. This will be his second series race at this track, too. He finished 12th in that difficult race having only found out he would be driving two days prior, which is pretty impressive for any rookie. With a bit more preparation, and better conditions, Bearman should have the potential to score some more points for fantasy players this week.
Finally, after opting for Norris in the McLaren as team captain, we get access to Max Verstappen by way of Red Bull Racing. The defending race winner has been superb at this track, and selecting Red Bull as manufacturer enables fantasy rosters to hedge a captain's pick like Norris with less expense than taking Verstappen directly. Additionally, this choice gives the roster the opportunity to benefit from Yuki Tsunoda, who has scored points in three of the last six races.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Grand Prix of Sao Paulo
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Thursday
Race Winner - Lando Norris +165
Winning Constructor - McLaren -140
Sprint Winner - Lando Norris +175
Safety Car - No +150
The last two races have shown us that Lando Norris and his McLaren car are equal, if not better, than the Red Bull of Max Verstappen, even at tracks where Red Bull should be favored. At COTA, where Norris finished second and Verstappen won, McLaren said afterward that Norris's race was compromised by being behind the Ferrari at the start and that the car was at least as quick as Verstappen's once past. The lap times throughout that race prove that, and Norris went out at Mexico City and delivered a dominant performance to back it up. In short, Verstappen has it all to do to stop the streaking McLaren of Lando Norris, and despite Verstappen's excellent Sao Paulo record, the driver to beat this week is actually Norris. Lando should be the favored driver this week for both the sprint and Sunday's full race, and with positive odds essentially equal to Verstappen as of now, Norris offers the better value.
Selecting McLaren as winning constructor is also a decent proposition this week. In addition to all the positives said about Norris above, wagerers that take this route get the added bonus of winning if Oscar Piastri prevails. With two series-leading cars in your corner, the odds drop commensurately. However, given the perception that Verstappen and Red Bull could be strong contenders this week, the odds are still more favorable than we are likely to get next time at Las Vegas if a McLaren does win this weekend.
A prop wager to consider this week is whether or not there will be a safety car. Odds are heavily negative to have one due to frequent turn 1 contact and the potential for rain. However, Sunday's race looks to be the most stable forecast of the weekend, and a dry race will produce a lower number of cautions and potential incidents. If the field can get through turn 1 cleanly, and the rain stays away, the safety car may stay tucked away in its parking spot throughout this race.
Mapping out your wagers for the Formula 1 race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
