This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
It's time to get serious about the bubble, and that means ignoring anyone who says this is a weak bubble. I've already heard it a few times on national networks, and for some reason, it upsets me every time (maybe it's a personal problem?). The bubble is always weak because it's the bubble. These teams are not good. That's why they're fighting to get into the tournament.
There are less than two weeks before major conference tournaments begin, and there's a wide range of teams who can still make the tournament. Teams like Kansas State, Florida and West Virginia are far from the bubble as of writing, but any of those teams could go on a winning streak and be in contention for the First Four in two weeks. That's what happened with Rutgers in its recent winning streak, and unfortunately for smaller conferences, it's not the same situation. Teams like Dayton and VCU are in that same spot, but they don't have the same opportunities to gain Quad 1 wins, and they're stuck having to win their conference tournament.
As discussed a couple weeks ago, I prefer using KenPom and Strength of Record as my go-to metrics, while I include NET because it's what the NCAA uses.
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
THE BUBBLE
Notre Dame (NET 55 , KenPom 58, SOR 30)
Man, the bubble is weak! Is Notre Dame good? Probably not. But the ACC is bad and the Fighting Irish should win their final three regular season games and maybe a tourney game or two. That's probably enough. Their worst loss is at Boston College, and they're 5-7 in the first two quadrants, which is good enough.
North Carolina (NET 41, KenPom 42, SOR 27)
The Tar Heels have been in the conversation for at least a month because they only recently got their first Quad 1 win. Still, they're 5-7 in the first two quadrants, and as long as they don't lose at NC State on Saturday (which is possible), they should be fine. They're currently one of the last teams in, and as long as they don't lose a Q3/Q4 game the rest of the way, they'll be in.
Michigan (NET 33, KenPom 31, SOR 43)
The difference between the Big Ten and the ACC is that Notre Dame and UNC have a lot of easier games, which leads to a better record. There's a reason metrics exist, because Big Ten teams will keep piling up losses, as is the case with the Wolverines, who still have Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State left on the schedule. A lot can happen between now and then. If the Wolverines lose three of those games, they'll be in trouble. If they win two, they'll be in the same situation as now.
Creighton (NET 59, KenPom 64, SOR 38)
I watched the Bluejays early in the season, and I didn't like what I saw. After some adjustments, I think they've figured things out in conference play, and that's why they're in position to go dancing. The downside is that they could lose their final three games and finish with 11 losses (12 including Big 12 tourney). I think they need one more legit win to feel safe because there's definitely someone on the committee who doesn't like that home loss to Arizona State. The recent injury to Ryan Nembhard could also turn into a massive problem.
San Diego State (NET 31, KenPom 23, SOR 59)
Outside of Gonzaga, the MWC is better than the WCC, and people need to realize that when comparing a team like SDSU to BYU. Sure, BYU beat SDSU earlier in the season, but it was in Provo, so is that going to decide who makes the tournament between those teams? The Aztecs almost got a big win at Boise on Tuesday and will try again at Wyoming next Monday. They have great metrics because they have no bad losses, and as long as that continues, I think they'll be fine.
Indiana (NET 43, KenPom 48, SOR 57)
The Hoosiers aren't in a much better situation than Michigan, but they have more winnable games outside of the final trip to Purdue. If they can win at Minnesota and then beat Rutgers, I think they'll be fine. If not, it could be another year of the NIT for them, which would be disappointing after a 16-5 start.
Memphis (NET 46, KenPom 41, SOR 61)
I don't understand the Memphis buzz. The Tigers moved into the field because they got one legit win at Houston, a team that has inflated metrics because it doesn't have two of its best players due to injury. As for Memphis, it has five losses against teams ranked outside of the KenPom top 97 and only has two wins against projected tourney teams. Not enough. I don't think they get in unless they win every game the rest of the way and make the AAC tournament final. It doesn't help that Memphis was swept by SMU, another AAC team on the bubble.
Rutgers (NET 83, KenPom 72, SOR 53)
I moved the Scarlet Knights into my bracket last week, and I think they can beat Wisconsin again and then win one or two more. A lot of people will point to the bad losses, but I keep coming back to their Strength of Record at 53. If they can win two of their final three, that number will only get better.
THE CUT
SMU (NET 45, KenPom 54, SOR 46)
I like the Mustangs, but they're being weighed down by some bad early-season losses, and that doesn't include a 23-point loss at Oregon. Unfortunately for them, a lot of that has to do with two transfers, the Weathers brothers, who didn't have as big of roles early on. SMU will try to sweep Houston, but even if it doesn't get that one, I think entering the AAC tournament at 22-7 will keep it in contention.
Oklahoma (NET 50, KenPom 45, SOR 66)
The Sooners took a massive fall and need to win their final three games to have a chance. While a 14-14 record doesn't look nice, nine of their losses are in the upper tier of Quad 1, so you can't really blame them. They also blew out Arkansas on a neutral court. I think the Sooners could sneak in, but they just need to win some games against lower-tier Big 12 teams.
Oregon (NET 67, KenPom 71, SOR 75)
It always seems like Oregon finds a way into the tournament, but it's going to take more this season. The Ducks have two big games coming up, home against USC and then at Washington State. Lose both and they're done, but win both and things get interesting come conference tourney time.
BYU (NET 51, KenPom 53, SOR 56)
I've been against the WCC since I started my bracket, and BYU's run of five losses in seven games only backed up my thoughts. The Cougars need help to get into the field and that means they'll either need to make the WCC final or get two other legit wins because having six WCC losses isn't going to cut it.
VCU (NET 57, KenPom 69, SOR 40)
The Rams are sneaking onto the bubble, and playing in the Atlantic 10 will do that. They could win the rest of their regular season games and be sitting pretty at 22-7 with a winning Q1/Q2 record. I wouldn't be surprised if they got to a 12-seed if other teams falter. Not to mention the narrative around VCU after it had to forfeit last year's Round of 64 game because of COVID-19.
Florida (NET 56, KenPom 56, SOR 60)
The Gators are 5-11 in the first two quadrants and have a Q4 loss by 15 points home against Texas Southern. I don't really like them as a team outside of Colin Castleton, and I'm not sure they can make it if they can't get past Vanderbilt next week. Their first game or two in the SEC tourney will also prove important.
Metrics prior to games on Thursday, Feb. 24.
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
