This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
On the eve of Selection Sunday, we'll take a look at the bubble teams vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. Beware the dreaded bid-stealers -- conference tournament winners that otherwise would have not made the Big Dance on resume alone will shrink the bubble.
We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy and which teams should be left out in the cold. As a refresher, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is used, which takes into account a variety of factors, including individual game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. In addition, wins (and losses) are now separated into Quadrants, depending on the caliber of opponent as well as the location of wins. To simplify, Quadrant 1 wins are the most valuable and come against the strongest competition. Kansas currently has the most Quadrant 1 wins with 15. By contrast, Quadrant 4 losses are the worst result, coming against inferior squads. Most teams have wins and losses in at least three quadrants, so it is important to not just look at Quadrant 1 wins, though those are certainly most likely to help a school's cause.
What matters more, big wins or bad losses? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? How about a .500-record overall? How important is how a team is playing at the time of Selection Sunday? We'll tackle these questions and more in the Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer.
UPGRADE
Pittsburgh – The Panthers nearly won a share of the ACC regular season championship, yet somehow are still considered a bubble team. In general, the ACC is not highly thought of this year, which hurts the Panthers right off the bat The Panthers have a mediocre NET rating of 57, though notched four Quadrant I victories. Pittsburgh beat both co-champions of the ACC, Miami and Virginia, as well as fellow bubble team North Carolina (twice). Their road record of 7-5 is particularly impressive for a bubble-type squad. On the downside, the Panthers have two damaging losses to Florida State (9-23 on season) and Notre Dame (11-21 on the year). In addition, the Panthers are on a two-game slide heading into the ACC Tournament. The Panthers likely have already done enough to secure an at-large berth, but another win or two certainly wouldn't hurt either.
Utah State – Assuming the Aggies do not win the Mountain West Conference and secure an automatic berth, their evaluation will be extremely intriguing. The Aggies have a NET rating of 21, which is by far the highest amongst bubble teams in this article. For comparison's sake, Utah State's NET rating is higher than every team in the ACC as well as Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland in the Big Ten. The Aggies have just one Quadrant 1 win, though. An 8-1 Quadrant 2 record is helpful, but two losses in Quadrant 4 are not (Weber State and SMU). However, both losses came fairly early on in the season. The Mountain West could end up with four teams in the NCAA Tournament, so a 13-5 conference record is nothing to scoff at. Had the Aggies at 24-7 overall won at least one of their matchups with San Diego State, they would likely be a shoe-in for the big dance. It still appears they may be in, but nothing is guaranteed.
Mississippi State – The Bulldogs have a NET rating of 46, possessing four Quadrant 1 wins. A Quadrant 3 loss to Georgia is the only "bad" loss on the resume, but that is hardly a horrific defeat. The chief concern for the Bulldogs is the sub-.500 conference record. MSU finished just 8-10 in the SEC. The non-conference resume for the Bulldogs may carry the day for them; Mississippi State beat Marquette, the top seed in the Big East, and TCU, which has a NET rating of 28 and seven Quadrant 1 wins. A recent win inside the conference over a ranked Texas A&M squad will also help the cause. Making some noise in the SEC Tournament could assuage some fears the committee may have about the Bulldogs and assure them of inclusion.
CHECK STATUS
Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights have a NET rating of 42, playing in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball. This likely makes their 10-10 Big Ten record a little more palatable. They still managed five Quadrant 1 triumphs, though also collected three Quadrant 3 losses, including defeats at the hands of Nebraska and Minnesota. The Scarlet Knights are also playing poorly heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers has lost six of its last eight games. Will big wins over Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland carry the day? Or will a trio of dismal losses along with poor play down the stretch destroy Rutgers' tourney dreams? The loser of Thursday's clash with Michigan may be ticketed for the NIT.
Oklahoma State – The Cowboys (43) have virtually the same NET rating as Rutgers. Oklahoma State's record is a tad worse at 17-14, and the Cowboys are also sitting at that dreaded sub-.500 record in conference play. However, they have six Quadrant 1 wins. In addition, Oklahoma State has just one Quadrant 3 loss, as compared to three for Rutgers. However, the Cowboys won their regular season finale against lowly Texas Tech to end a five-game losing streak. The competition as stiff in the Big 12 this season, as the Cowboys posted a 6-11 record in Quadrant 1 contests. The Cowboys should be rewarded for playing in a tough conference, and not punished, but their resume still screams "bubble team" as we head down to the wire.
Nevada – The NET rating is not the be-all, end-all, but the Mountain West received plenty of love this season. Nevada currently has a NET rating of 36, yet both the Wolfpack as well as the aforementioned Utah State Aggies are still considered bubble squads. Nevada is 21-9 overall, garnering four Quadrant 1 victories. They split the season series with Utah State, as well as Boise State and San Diego State. The Wolfpack did lose three Quadrant 3 contests, though, including a lackluster loss to 9-21 Wyoming down the stretch. If solely based on the NET rating, the Wolfpack would likely be in. The Mountain West also had four entries into the big dance a season ago, so having four again this season would not be outlandish. But will the committee go with a bigger conference school, or a brand name, instead? Stay tuned.
DOWNGRADE
North Carolina – It would be quite a story if the preseason No. 1 team in the country did not make the NCAA Tournament. A run in the ACC Tournament would do wonders for the resume of the Tar Heels, though their NET rating is still a very respectable 49. The biggest sticking point for UNC is its lackluster record against quality opponents. North Carolina is a dismal 1-9 in Quadrant 1 matchups, though the one victory did come against co-ACC Champion Virginia. They are 6-3 in Quadrant 2 contests, and do not have any bad losses. At 19-12 overall, a couple more wins in the conference tourney would likely secure UNC's place in the big dance. An early exit could spell doom.
Michigan – There are a staggering nine Big Ten 10 programs with between nine and 11 conference wins this season. Sorting through those squads will be no easy task for the committee. Michigan has 11 conference wins (as compared to 10 for Penn State and Rutgers, and nine for Wisconsin). However, the Wolverines overall record is just 17-14 on the season. The NET rating of 54 shows a reward for a difficult schedule along with three Quadrant 1 wins, but the Wolverines also lost 11 Quadrant 1 games as well. In other words, Michigan had plenty of chances to pad its resume, but largely floundered despite ample opportunity. A midseason loss to Central Michigan, which finished 10-21 on the season, is also a large blemish. With two-straight losses entering the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines likely have some work to do if they want to be included in March Madness.
Arizona State – While we could have discussed Wisconsin or Penn State here as well, the Sun Devils are a particularly fascinating squad to evaluate. ASU is likely only on the bubble because of the half-court prayer hit against Arizona to upset their in-state rivals. Without that win, the Sun Devils would have a NET rating lower than its current slot (62), only three Quadrant 1 wins, no signature triumph and a .500 record in the Pac-12. Instead, ASU sits at 20-11 overall, 11-9 in conference play, and a buzzer-beating win over a top-10 caliber opponent. Still, the Sun Devils likely have some work to do, as a stunning early-season loss to Texas Southern does not bode well. ASU did beat fellow bubble teams Michigan and Oregon, but residence in the Pac-12 will hurt the Sun Devils (and Ducks too for that matter) when compared with similar schools in the Big 12 and Big Ten. Two wins in the Pac-12 Tournament may be needed to feel better about the resume.
