This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a smaller college hoops slate on Tuesday, but at least we still have some prominent programs in the mix. Here are my best bets for today's action.
Hofstra at 
Duke
Hofstra enters Tuesday with a 6-3 record, which isn't bad, although it's already lost two games to teams that rank beneath them in the overall efficiency department, usually not a good sign of things to come. The Pride doesn't have any quality wins, either, so it still has a lot to prove.
Duke, similarly, also has three losses on the season. Two of them came on the road by a combined nine points to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, and the third came against Arizona. The final score in the latter shows a five-point loss, but in reality, the Blue Devils had the Wildcats on the ropes. With under a minute to go, Duke held a two-point lead, giving it a 74 percent chance of winning the game according to KenPom. The final sixty seconds did not go in favor of the home team, but Duke proved it could still compete with any title-contending team in case there was any doubt.
Since Arizona snapped Duke's 17-game home winning streak, the Blue Devils resumed dominating lesser teams at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke started a new home winning streak, now up to four games, by defeating each opponent by at least 18 points. Its most recent performance, a 24-point victory over Charlotte, suggests Duke is back to firing on all cylinders since stumbling during its road trip a couple of weeks ago.
Looking at how Hostra compares against Duke, it's hard to find any areas where it might have an edge. Duke is substantially better in efficiency, rebounding, and turnover percentage on both ends of the court. It's always possible that Hoftra might catch fire and keep the game close, but I'm not counting on it. I'm laying points with the dominant home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -15
Cal Baptist at 
Oregon
Cal Baptist is coming off a brutal home loss at the hands of Utah Tech, 72-69. We never want to overreact to one game, but Utah Tech is ranked 232md on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so this outcome is tough to ignore. Collectively, the Lancers have faced the fourth-easiest schedule in the country, per KenPom, making it hard to draw many positive conclusions about the team after just eight games. On paper, Cal Baptist is right around the D1 average in offensive and defensive efficiency, making it appear things are fine, but the untested status of the team leaves me skeptical.
Oregon, in contrast, is building upon consecutive victories, both boosting the team's stock. First, the Ducks defeated Michigan in overtime on December 2nd and then defeated UTEP, 71-49, this past Saturday. Oregon isn't quite as sharp on defense, but it's putting up great offensive numbers. The Ducks are making 53 percent of shots inside the arc and over 37 percent from outside, making them an all-around effective scoring team. However, it's the latter that appears most relevant to Tuesday's game.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, Cal Baptist's perimeter defense immediately comes into question. Opponents are making nearly 34 percent of three-point shots against Cal Baptist, but the more alarming number is the frequency. The Lancers' opponents are taking three-point shots at the seventh-highest rate among all D1 teams in the nation, and this stat is compounded by the fact that Lancers' opponents have the eighth-highest assist rate. Based on this data, it's clear that Cal Baptist is leaving the perimeter wide open and opponents are going out of their way to try and take advantage. Unfortunately for Cal Baptist, Tuesday's opponent has several shooters who are shooting over 35 percent from behind the arc this season.
Given Cal Baptist's defensive weakness and Oregon's skill set, I have to go with the Ducks in this game. The spread is a bit high, but three-point shooting will help cover the number in no time at all. I'm laying the points with Oregon in this matchup.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over for the same reasons just mentioned. Oregon has been comparatively weaker on defense and while it just held its last opponent to 49 points, it's worth noting that UTEP ranks near the bottom of the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon allowed at least 70 points in regulation to each of its last three opponents before UTEP, so I'm betting they'll bend enough to help us hit the over en route to a cover as well.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -13 and Over 136.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Duke -15
- Oregon -13
- Cal Baptist at Oregon - Over 136.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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