This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings another day full of thrilling college basketball matchups. Here are my predictions for a few select matchups tipping off later in the day.
Colorado at Utah
Colorado enters Saturday with a 15-6 record and ranked 25th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, the markings of a good season. And yet, it's still missing a signature win. The best victory so far was a 17-point road decision at Washington, but the team will need a few more if it wants to have a real case for having its name called on Selection Sunday. Part of what made the most recent win so impressive was that it came on the road. The Buffaloes have played in six true road games, and they've lost all but that one.
Utah has similarly dropped most of its away contests. But luckily for the Utes, they'll be hosting on Saturday. This is helpful for any college basketball team, but seemingly more so for Utah almost playing at an unbeatable level at the Huntsman Center going 11-0 while defeating opponents by an average of 20 points while scoring 84. In all other games, Utah has gone 3-7 while losing by an average of eight and producing 73. In addition to the locational advantage, the Utes also have a favorable matchup against the Buffaloes.
Utah is built to stop Colorado's two main methods of scoring. The Buffaloes have received 22 percent of its total points off free throws during conference play, the highest percentage in the Pac-12. At the same time, they've also received 55 percent of scoring off two-pointers, the second-highest percentage off shots inside the arc in the conference. Unfortunately for Colorado, Utah's defense is top-notch at guarding both areas. During conference play, the Utes are holding opponents to 47 percent on two-pointers, the second-best percentage. They're also effective at guarding without fouling by posting the 15th-lowest defensive free-throw attempt rate in the nation.
For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with Utah in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah -2.5
BYU at West Virginia
It won't be easy, but West Virginia has a decent shot at keeping this game close.
The Mountaineers might have a brutal record and awful efficiency numbers, but they've played significantly better at home this past month having won their last three home games by defeating Texas, Kansas, and Cincinnati. If West Virginia can play up to its usual standards at home, they should be able to keep this within reach.
West Virginia has at least one notable offensive advantage in the form of its aggressive playing style. The Mountaineers list the highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big-12 during conference play, an important stat as BYU has experienced difficulty with stopping opposing teams without fouling with the second-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate.
At the other end of the court, the Mountaineers again have an edge in turnovers. BYU has struggled to hold on to the ball during league play by recording the third-worst offensive turnover percentage, a bad trait in this matchup because West Virginia's defense has logged the fourth-highest turnover percentage. If both these trends hold up, the host team will most likely win the turnover battle on Saturday.
Given the home-court advantage coupled with the various advantages at both ends, I like West Virginia's odds of keeping the game close. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: West Virginia +7.5
Washington State at Washington
This matchup is a tale of two teams, each going in different directions.
Washington State entered the conference season ranked at No. 64 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and has now won five of its last six games to boost that number up to 44th. The Cougars have taken down Arizona, Utah, and Colorado during this stretch, further illustrating its high-level of play.
Washington, meanwhile, began the conference season sitting at No. 54 on KenPom's overall chart, and has lost three of its last five games to fall to 59th. The Huskies defeated Xavier and Gonzaga earlier in the year, though they haven't played at a consistently high level against Pac-12 opponents.
When comparing the teams, Washington State boasts a couple of key advantages. First, the Huskies' defense hasn't been great with the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during league play and noticeably vulnerable on the inside by allowing conference opponents to make over 52 percent on shots inside the arc. The latter is a key number, as the Cougars do most of their damage inside by making 52 percent of two-pointers, with those accounting for 56 percent of their total points - the highest percentage in the Pac-12.
At the other end, the same trend of inside dominance emerges. Washington has been much more productive with inside scoring by making 53 percent of two-pointers - the second-highest percentage in the Pac-12 during conference play - though it's going against a stout interior defense as Washington State is holding league opponents to under 46 percent on shots inside the arc - the lowest percentage allowed in the Pac-12.
Winning on the road isn't easy, but the Cougars appear well-equipped to handle their in-state rivals. And if you follow trends, it's worth noting Washington State has covered the spread in five of its last six games, according to Action Network. I'm rolling with the Cougars in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State PK
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Utah -2.5
- West Virginia +7.5
- Washington State pk
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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