This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
San Diego State -2½ vs. Colorado State
Colorado State is one of the last remaining unbeatens, but that's about to change. The Rams head to San Diego State to play in their first true road game of the season, taking on an Aztecs defense that ranks No. 9 in the country in adjusted efficiency rating, per KenPom. On the other side of the court, San Diego State's offense, admittedly, is lagging far behind its defense, but in this case, it's less an issue because Colorado State's defense is the Rams' weak spot, ranking No. 101 in adjusted efficiency rating. If Colorado State had a strong defense then I might avoid San Diego State in this spot, but that's not necessarily true in this instance. The Aztecs should cover, and there's a chance that starters Trey Pulliam and/or Lamont Butler return after missing some time, a major bonus.
LSU -2 vs. Tennessee
We have a defensive battle on tap, as Tennessee and LSU enter as the top teams in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. It should be pointed out, however, that LSU's defense is a cut above the rest, as the gap between the rating of No. 1, LSU, and No. 2, Tennessee, is equivalent to the distance between the ratings of No. 2 and No. 9. Meanwhile, the offensive attacks for both teams are nearly just as comparable, both hovering around the middle of the SEC in adjusted efficiency. This isn't surprising for Tennessee, considering the Vols have only had one team finish with a top-12 offensive rating in the last six years under coach Rick Barnes, per KenPom. This is in stark contrast to LSU, which has had three top-12 finishes in each of the last three years under coach Will Wade. Both teams have obviously experienced significant roster turnover in that span, but ultimately, LSU is more likely to start clicking on offense than Tennessee. The Vols' defense will probably keep them in the game for a while, but when all is said and done, Tennessee won't score enough points on the road against what is the best defense in the country, per KenPom.
Georgia at Kentucky Over 147½
This game should feature a good amount of possessions, as both teams prefer a fast tempo. For the Wildcats, the sky is the limit because Georgia easily has the worst defense in the SEC and it's not even remotely close, per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Kentucky enters with the 14th best offensive rating, so it can probably score at will most of the game. The other interesting note is that Kentucky is returning home after suffering their third loss of the season, a road trip to LSU. In Kentucky's last two games following losses this season, the Wildcats scored 100 points and 98 points, respectively. Safe to say we don't need to worry about Kentucky chipping in toward the point total. Georgia's offense isn't the worst in the SEC, so the Bulldogs should do just enough to help us hit the over.
Iowa State +6½ at Oklahoma
This pick is all about Iowa State's defense, which is currently fourth best in the country, per KenPom's adjusted ratings. Excluding Butler, Iowa State hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 60 points in six consecutive games, and overall it hasn't allowed more than 60 points in 10 of 14 games this season. Oklahoma's offense isn't bad on paper, but that hasn't always been true, as it completely no-showed a couple occasions earlier this season, both at home. The first instance was Nov. 24 when Oklahoma played Houston Baptist, ranked No. 350 by KenPom, and the Huskies held the Sooners to just 57 points. The second instance came Dec. 7 when Butler held Oklahoma to just 54 points in regulation, before defeating the Sooners in overtime. Either way, it seems we're in store for a gritty defensive battle between conference foes, which makes it likely we cover this number.
