This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
It's the Thursday edition of the RotoWire NBA Gambling Roundtable. It's a relatively small five-game slate, so things are a bit easier to sift through than usual. Still, nothing can ever be normal this season. Heat at 76ers is ravaged by COVID-19-related absences again, and the Rockets just had a wrench thrown into their plans with James Harden now on the Nets, plus John Wall and Eric Gordon also sidelined.
Alex Barutha: Tyler Herro over 23.5 points (-110) vs. PHI -- FanDuel, 1:44 PM CT and Hornets (+8.5, -110) over the Raptors (DraftKings, 2:01 PM CT)
The Heat remain without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn and other core pieces for Thursday's game against the 76ers. During the first matchup of this two-game series, Herro played 39 minutes and scored 34 points on 26 shots during the overtime win. Three days earlier, he scored 31 points on 20 shots against the Wizards. Philly is getting most of its key players back Thursday, but I don't think that will stop Herro from scoring 24 points. He has a 36.1% usage rate with the aforementioned players off the court, averaging 23.7 shot attempts per 36 minutes.
I was shocked to see the Hornets as 8.5-point dogs (+295 to the ML) to the Raptors. The Raptors have not been good. They've had the ninth-easiest schedule and are 2-8 with a -1.4 net rating. Meanwhile, the Hornets have had the sixth-most-difficult schedule and are 6-6 with a -0.1 net rating. Basketball-Reference's Simple Rating System suggests that on a neutral court (which Tampa Bay is, by the way), the Hornets should actually be favored by a possession. I know the Raptors aren't this bad, but I think the Hornets might be this good, and the spread is just far too big.
Joe Bartel: (2:00 PM ET DraftKings) Taken from my DraftKings Sportsbook Thursday edition, I'm targeting the over on OG Anunoby's 19.5 PRA (+100). The Hornets allow the most 3-point attempts to small forwards in the league by a considerable margin and the fourth-year forward has been jacking up more threes than ever. He's still a critical factor defensively which matters even more assuming Gordon Hayward (hip) plays which should afford him plenty of minutes Thursday. There's enough rebounds/assists production built into Anunoby's averages that I'm comfortable taking plus money as opposed to just the points (o/u 11.5, -110).
Ken Crites: Wow, COVID really makes predicting NBA outcomes extra interesting. It's 1:56pm EST, and I'm looking at the Heat at Sixers game, Round 2. There could anywhere from 12 to 19 players OUT for this game, much like Tuesday's matchup. I'm taking the Miami Heat, +10.5 pts.
Yes, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both OUT again for Miami. But on the Philly side, Seth Curry is OUT and Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons are all probable. Things look awfully lopsided for the Sixers. But this same matchup, with the same players out for Miami, resulted in a close overtime game Tuesday.
Do I think Miami will win this time? No, of course not. But +10.5 points is just too tempting. We know coach Erik Spoelstra's team will play hard and will be well coached for the match-up. I'll also take the over on Precious Achiuwa scoring 13.5 points (FanDuel). Expect another 30-plus-minute run for Achiuwa.
Nick Whalen: Jaylen Brown to win Most Improved Player (25/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I don't love the board for tonight's smaller slate, so let's take a look at the futures market. Brown lost a little steam with Boston's last three games being postponed, but at 25/1 I'm still very comfortable betting him for MIP. Through 10 games, Brown is averaging 26.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals, while shooting 54 percent from the field and 42 percent from three. His overall field goal percentage will eventually regress, but the rest of Brown's production feels sustainable. He's even cooled off a bit since putting up 28.0 points on 59 percent shooting over his first seven games.
