This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
With the NBA season fast approaching, now's the time to break down the season win totals and make some bold predictions. Vegas had their first release of the win totals last week and jumping on them before the public does is key to cashing some of these wagers. Last year, I was able to go 5-2 with my win total bets, with my favorite bet cashing shortly after the All-Star break (Charlotte over 33 wins). Using my expansive knowledge of the NBA and studying the numerous offseason moves, there's some huge values out there to be had in the win total market. I'll be ranking my five best plays from top to bottom, so you guys get an idea of who I like the most.
Indiana Pacers OVER 43.5 wins
Most of the talk in the offseason centered around the Warriors' signing of Kevin Durant, but the Pacers quietly had one of the best offseasons of any other team in the league. The additions of Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson and Georges Niang make the Pacers one of the deeper teams in the Eastern Conference. Along with those pickups, the Pacers will return Paul George, who showed last season that he's as good as ever after suffering a devastating leg injury in 2014, and he could enter the fray as an MVP candidate in 2016-17. And if Myles Turner continues to develop after his breakout rookie season, he could become one of the most versatile and dominant big men in the league. Over the past five seasons, the Pacers have averaged 46 wins per year, and this is by far their most talented team over that stretch. In addition, they play in a division in which only one team is expected to win more than 45 games (Cleveland). Not only do I expect Indiana to surpass their criminally low win total, I expect them to battle for the No. 2 seed.
Phoenix Suns OVER 27.5 wins
Yes, the Suns were downright bad last season, but they have a roster poised to improve. Vegas is clearly overlooking their extensive injury woes, which torpedoed what had been an encouraging start to last season. Not only did the Suns lose guards Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight for large portions of the season, but the team played less than 20 games with their projected starting five from the beginning of the season. All the injuries made this a better team though, as youngsters Devin Booker, T.J. Warren and Alex Len made some major strides last season with some unexpected big minutes. Entering the upcoming season, the backcourt trio of Bledsoe, Knight and Booker may very well be one of the best in the league. It's their quiet offseason moves that I like the most though, with the dysfunctional Morris brothers finally gone and veterans like Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa coming in. Those are some former Suns that played in Phoenix during boom times, and having that sort of leadership can only help a young developing team. The Suns also have the benefit of having the Lakers and Kings -- two of the worst teams in the league last season -- in their division.
Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 27.5 wins
I hate to beat up on the lowly Sixers, but this win total doesn't make much sense. Over the past three seasons, Philadelphia has 47 total wins and have failed to surpass 20 victories in any of those seasons, with the team collecting less wins every year. So, what makes this a better team? The addition of Ben Simmons is good for the future, but this is a rookie who can't shoot and could very well lead the league in turnovers, if he handles the ball as much as anticipated. Ish Smith was easily the Sixers' best player last season and led the team in usage, but he's now gone to play in Detroit. What's especially scary is their division, as they'll have to play four games apiece against two playoff teams from last season (the Raptors and Celtics) and the improving Knicks. This was one of few teams in NBA history who finished in the bottom two in points scored, points allowed and rebounds for a season, which catapulted them to their dismal 10 wins last year. It's hard to imagine all these faults improving enough to get them to the 28 wins they need to cash the over.
Chicago Bulls OVER 38.5 wins
Much of the talk around the Bulls is negative with all the departures they had in the offseason, but this is a better team than people anticipate. Yes, the losses of Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol look devastating on the surface, but the team brought in an influx of talent that is not receiving enough credit. Though both Dwayne Wade and Rajon Rondo are on the downside of their career, that duo and the addition of Robin Lopez make a formidable threesome to counter the three they lost. Noah and Gasol leaving also opens up the door for Nikola Mirotic, Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis to play more, and that group has enough diversity in their skill sets to help the Bulls match up with just about anyone. This is a proud franchise as well, with Chicago winning at least 41 games in 11 of their last 12 seasons. Many people criticized last year's hire of coach Fred Hoiberg, but this is finally a roster that he can work with and run the up-tempo attack he favored at Iowa State. The defense won't be too shabby either, with Wade and Butler forming a dominant defensive backcourt in a guard-heavy league.
Miami Heat OVER 36.5 wins
This is yet another veteran team that's being undervalued, and it's a wonder why this win total is so low. Much like the Bulls, the Heat have rarely finished below .500 since the turn of the century. In fact, this is a team that has averaged over 50 wins a year across the last 13 seasons, aside from 15-win rebuilding campaign in 2007. That 15-win season was the only time that Miami has failed to surpass 37 wins in the past 13 seasons. The loss of Dwyane Wade is huge, but if there's a silver lining, it's that his absence will allow young, emerging wing talents like Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson to pick up more minutes. What's hanging over this team is the Chris Bosh situation, as it seems quite unlikely that he'll play again for the Heat or anyone else, leaving the team with a huge void at power forward. Still, the Heat have two talented foundational players in Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside to lean on, with the latter representing the NBA's top rim protector. If one of Winslow, Richardson and Johnson can emerge as a low-level star alongside Dragic and Whiteside, the team can easily jockey for a .500 record.
Golden State Warriors UNDER 66.5 wins
Though I'm not making this bet with much conviction, we have to talk about the Warriors' O/U, as it sets a historic mark. The 66.5 projected wins is the highest mark that I could find in the last decade, and it comes as no surprise. Not only did the Warriors set a record with their 73 wins from last season, they added one of the top five players in the league in Kevin Durant. There have only been 12 teams in NBA history who have won more than 66 games, and only two of those have won more than 69. That alone makes me lean toward an under here with Golden State, but considering it may take time for all of these superstars to gel, it should make that 67-win mark especially tough to achieve. History alone tells us to bet an under in this incredibly rare circumstance, but there's no way to predict how a team this stacked is going to perform.
Some other bets that I'm leaning towards are:
San Antonio Spurs OVER 56.5 wins
Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 46.5 wins
Utah Jazz UNDER 47.5 wins
Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 39.5 wins
Denver Nuggets OVER 34.5 wins
