This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Well, we got off to a nice start with last night's Red Sox win, which I suggested on Draft Kings at +105.
Before we get to the ALDS bets, I want to throw out some futures bets to consider.
I like the White Sox at +700 to win the World Series. I also like White Sox/Brewers World Series matchup at +1600.
The White Sox were third in the majors this season with a 109 wRC+, and they got the following game totals from some of their best position players:
Tim Anderson: 123
Eloy Jimenez: 55
Luis Robert: 68
Yasmani Grandal: 93
They got healthy in time for the playoffs, and with the Blue Jays out of the mix, I think there's a case this should be the most feared lineup in October. The Astros certainly have a case as well, but center field is a pretty big hole for Houston, and they're much more heavily favored by the books — last year was the year to profit off Houston in the playoffs, as the betting public was still dinging them for the cheating scandal.
If you want to bet the Dodgers, I'd rather just make calculated bets each series like the one I suggested for tonight's Wild Card game, as there's just not much value in betting them to win the NL or the WS at current odds.
As for the Brewers side of that World Series matchup bet, Milwaukee has the second-best pitching staff behind the Dodgers and a really strong defensive unit. The hitting isn't quite where I'd want it to be on a potential pennant winner, but if it were, their odds would be right there with the Dodgers.
ALDS PICKS
Houston Astros (-130) vs. Chicago White Sox (+110)
Since I like the White Sox to win this series, I'd rather just bet on them on a game-by-game basis, as they're not giving us much value at +110 for a series underdog. You can bet them for Game 1 at +125 and Game 2 at +115, so if they split those two, you'd come out ahead.
However, here's a nice series parlay wager: White Sox and Brewers win at +250.
Tampa Bay Rays (-165) vs. Boston Red Sox (+140)
Tampa Bay mashes lefties, and the Red Sox will be starting lefties in the first two games of the series. However, the Red Sox mash righties, and the Rays will be starting righties in two of the first three games of the series. I'd also give Boston a slight edge in starting pitching and I'd give Tampa Bay's bullpen a slight edge. This is annoying, because I think this series is closer than the lines suggest, but I'm still going with the Rays because of how much deeper their offense is.
So can we find a better value than Rays -165?
How about Rays and Brewers win at +170. We're now pretty reliant on the Brewers to beat Atlanta with these two series parlays — maybe that's too much exposure. We could also do the White Sox and Rays win at +240 or the White Sox, Rays and Brewers win at +475.
I really don't love our options with either ALDS from a betting value standpoint, as I like the Rays and White Sox, but ideally the White Sox would be +120 and the Rays would be -150, or something along those lines. Hopefully I gave you something useful to chew on here. My favorite bet on the board is probably still the White Sox to win the World Series at +700.
