Offseason Deep Dives: Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter is just 25 years old, but his professional career has already been filled with twists and turns and ups and downs.

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, Leiter was viewed as a likely quick-riser through the minors following a dominant final season at Vanderbilt. The Rangers certainly saw him that way, assigning him to Double-A Frisco in 2022 to kick off his pro career. Leiter was ranked as a top-20 prospect by many outlets heading into that season.

Unfortunately, in his first two seasons in the Rangers' system, Leiter looked closer to a non-prospect than an elite one. He struck out batters at a 28 percent clip during his 43 appearances over that stretch (42 at Frisco, one at Triple-A Round Rock), but Leiter also sported a bloated 13.4 percent walk rate as well as a 5.37 ERA. He spent time on the development list in both of those seasons, first in 2022 due to what the Rangers said was arm fatigue and then in 2023 while he worked on his mechanics.

Leiter was better in 2024 at Round Rock but really struggled when being broken in at the major-league level, holding an 8.83 ERA and 31:17 K:BB across 35.2 frames. He ended that season in the Rangers' bullpen and came into spring training in 2025 looking like a long shot to make the Opening Day rotation.

Due in part to injuries to Cody Bradford (elbow) and Jon Gray (wrist) but also Leiter's strong Cactus League showing, the young right-hander opened this past season among the Rangers' starting five. He wound up making 29 starts for Texas, finishing with a 10-10 record, a 3.86 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and a 148:67 K:BB over 151.2 innings. It was good enough to make Leiter the No. 56 starting pitcher in fantasy, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values.

Any evaluation of Leiter has to begin with his four-seamer. He was already a hard thrower, but Leiter showed even more velocity on his heater in 2025, averaging 97.3 mph with the pitch. It's not just the velocity that makes the offering so good, either.

Leiter ranked in the 81st percentile in fastball spin rate and got 17.4 inches of induced vertical break, which ranked 13th among the 40 pitches that threw at least 1,000 four-seamers. He also ranked in the 89th percentile in extension. All of these factors led to a perceived velocity of 98 mph on the four-seamer, which, as you can see below in the image taken from Baseball Savant, was topped only by Paul Skenes' 98.7 mph among those 40 hurlers.

Opposing batters hit only .189 with a .293 slugging percentage and .281 wOBA off of Leiter's four-seamer in 2025. The pitch garnered a run value of plus-11, which ranked 20th among 204 qualified hurlers on Baseball Savant's leaderboard.

The rest of Leiter's arsenal is less consistent but has shown promise, particularly his changeup. Leiter began throwing a "kick changeup" toward the end of the 2024 season and carried that new pitch into 2025. He got excellent results with the offering, as it produced a .186 average, .320 slugging percentage, .255 wOBA and 32.2 percent whiff rate.

It should come as no surprise, then, that Leiter took off after he leaned more heavily into his four-seamer and kick change:

First 13 Starts

Final 16 Starts

There were still some bumps in the road — he failed to go five innings in five of his final 16 outings — but Leiter found much more consistency down the stretch while throwing more four-seamers and changeups and fewer sinkers and sliders. Leiter's slider can be a really good pitch, and there will be times — particularly when he's facing a lineup filled with right-handed bats — when he will use it often, but in general he seemed to find the right pitch mix during those last 16 starts.

Control has never been a strong suit for Leiter, even dating back to college. His walk rate in the minors was 12.4 percent, and it's been 10.3 percent thus far at the big-league level. Leiter managed to get his walk rate to 9.5 percent during his final 16 starts, which isn't great but is acceptable, if he's able to maintain it. Realistically, he's likely to always have below-average control and a below-average WHIP, and because Leiter is a flyball pitcher who will have home run problems at times, there will be some blowup starts.

Globe Life Field ranks 22nd in Baseball Savant's Park Factors over the last three seasons and 13th for home runs, which should help limit those blowup outings. Leiter was indeed better at home in 2025, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.21 WHIP there compared to a 4.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road. The Rangers also had a very good defensive club last season, ranking sixth in Outs Above Average. They did, however, lose Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia and replaced them with inferior defenders in Josh Smith (probably, anyway) and Brandon Nimmo, respectively, so Texas' defense seems likely to take a step back in 2026.

Leiter's early NFBC ADP is 260.8, and he's the 74th starting pitcher off the board, which suggests people aren't totally buying into the improvement the young right-hander made down the stretch this past season. I'm somewhat on the fence with Leiter, but I lean more toward buying than selling at the current cost.