This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
As I write this Monday afternoon, we still have baseball. The A's are beating up on the Angels, two games were postponed, and a slew of other contests are set to kick off as scheduled. Whether that is still the case once this article is published, who knows? Whether this is my last baseball article of 2020 is similarly unknown. I woke up to lots of "RIP baseball" type Twitter threads after the news about the 11 (late edit: 14?) Marlins players who had tested positive. When asked a couple weeks ago what I thought the odds were of a completed 60-game season, I was probably on the high side at 70 percent. The odds now? Lots would argue zero percent, but I'll be Mr. Optimistic and go 10 percent. All that doom and gloom aside, this week I'm going to flip last week's analysis and look at pitchers with better-than-average hard-hit rates, but relatively high ERAs. Sure, this in a vacuum doesn't mean that these pitchers are going to see their ERA improve, but it is one data point to dive further into.
All numbers are 2019 numbers.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies (HH rate: 31.4%, ERA: 3.96)
Wheeler's hard-hit rate ranked sixth best among qualified starters, so while a 3.96 ERA isn't awful by any means, he could be in line for improvements this year. In his Phillies debut, we saw that, as the right-hander went seven strong innings against the Marlins, allowing one run on five hits with
As I write this Monday afternoon, we still have baseball. The A's are beating up on the Angels, two games were postponed, and a slew of other contests are set to kick off as scheduled. Whether that is still the case once this article is published, who knows? Whether this is my last baseball article of 2020 is similarly unknown. I woke up to lots of "RIP baseball" type Twitter threads after the news about the 11 (late edit: 14?) Marlins players who had tested positive. When asked a couple weeks ago what I thought the odds were of a completed 60-game season, I was probably on the high side at 70 percent. The odds now? Lots would argue zero percent, but I'll be Mr. Optimistic and go 10 percent. All that doom and gloom aside, this week I'm going to flip last week's analysis and look at pitchers with better-than-average hard-hit rates, but relatively high ERAs. Sure, this in a vacuum doesn't mean that these pitchers are going to see their ERA improve, but it is one data point to dive further into.
All numbers are 2019 numbers.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies (HH rate: 31.4%, ERA: 3.96)
Wheeler's hard-hit rate ranked sixth best among qualified starters, so while a 3.96 ERA isn't awful by any means, he could be in line for improvements this year. In his Phillies debut, we saw that, as the right-hander went seven strong innings against the Marlins, allowing one run on five hits with a 4:2 K:BB. Of course, now he goes from facing the Marlins to facing a legitimate lineup against the Yankees, but Wheeler should be fine despite the low strikeout total. His fastball against the Marlins averaged 96.8 mph coming off last year's 96.7 mph. Half his batted balls came on the ground after last year's 43.7 percent GB rate. Wheeler missed two full years (2015 to 2016) due to Tommy John surgery and complications in his recovery, but he then rallied to make 60 starts over the last two-year period. Wheeler's 3.47 FIP last year is probably a decent predictor of this year's ERA.
Ivan Nova, Tigers (HH rate: 33.1%, ERA: 4.72)
A soft-tosser (91.3 mph average fastball in his 2020 debut) pitching for a team with no playoff aspirations doesn't exactly present a very appealing fantasy profile, but Nova at least gives you innings, even if his ceiling is probably an ERA in the 4.30 range. Nova's 32.3 percent career hard-hit rate is excellent, even though his swing and miss rates (8.4 SwStr percentage for example) are well below average. Simply, batters don't seem to have a very hard time putting the ball in play against Nova, but when they do, the contact is relatively light, otherwise he'd likely have hung up his spikes long ago. Nova walked four in his 2020 debut while allowing a pair of home runs, though he was fortunate in that only one homer came with a man on base, and he managed five innings of three-run ball. Nova is probably a streaming/AL-only option at best, though there is some hope that he can improve the ERA a bit.
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs (HH rate: 33.8%, ERA: 3.46)
Hendricks' hard-hit rate in 2019 was actually a career-worst, as his career rate is an excellent 28.7 percent. Both numbers are still good. For Hendricks, it wasn't tough to see that his 2.13 ERA season back in 2016 would be the outlier, as while his 8.1 K/9 was okay, it wasn't elite, and it was the driver in his FIP being a full point higher at 3.16. Not surprisingly, Hendricks' ERA the subsequent season was 3.33, and that's probably about what we can expect this year…or maybe not, Hendricks' got an early jump on the NL Cy Young discussion, throwing a complete-game three-hit shutout against a pretty good team, the Brewers. He also struck out nine and didn't walk anyone. Hendricks obviously isn't going to have a 0.00 ERA in his 11 or 12 starts, but he did have an eight-start stretch last year where he clocked in at 1.99 and we could see some crazy streaks, particularly if pitchers luck out and time things to where they face teams with a couple starts out due to COVID-19.
Rick Porcello, Mets (HH rate: 34.2%, ERA: 5.52)
It's really tough to get excited about Porcello these days, low hard-hit rate aside. It's even tougher after his Mets debut in which the right-hander lasted just two innings, allowing six runs on seven hits with three walks. Obviously his .636 BABIP is not sustainable, though despite injuries to Marcus Stroman (calf) and Noah Syndergaard (elbow), Porcello's spot in the rotation may already be tenuous. He's expected to make his next start, but he'll again face the Braves, so that may not go well. Porcello's hard-hit rate was once in the 22 to 27 percent range back with the Tigers, but it's been more in the 33 to 38 percent range in recent years. Still decent, but trending poorly. I'd steer clear.
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox (HH rate: 35.1%, ERA: 5.38)
Lopez didn't make it out of the first inning in his first start, resulting in a 54.00 ERA and a trip to the IL with shoulder inflammation. Seems like he started the game with a sore shoulder, but who knows. After looking through Lopez's second-half numbers and his hard-hit rate, I was somewhat optimistic, but that's probably out the window now. Witness the improvement:
| IH | 2H |
ERA | 6.34 | 4.29 |
K% | 19.5% | 22.5% |
BB% | 8.5% | 7.3% |
The overall 8.0 BB percentage is still too high, and it's always been a problem for Lopez. In addition, his fastball clocked in at an average of 92.4 mph in his first start, down over three full mph from last year. Maybe the 10 days off will do wonders and he comes back strong, but I'll be firmly in wait-and-see mode.
Martin Perez, Red Sox (HH rate: 35.2%, ERA: 5.12)
Tough to really buy into an ERA improvement for a guy now in the AL East. Indeed, Perez managed to lose to the Orioles in his first start, tossing five innings of four-run ball but striking out just two. I guess if you really want to be optimistic, Perez finished the outing with three scoreless innings. That said, Perez is now 29 and the owner of a 4.73 career ERA and 1.49 WHIP in over 900 innings. That's probably a big enough sample size for us to say that he belongs in the bullpen at best, and the KBO at worst. With a career 8.2 percent swinging strike rate, Perez simply does not miss enough bats, making an above-average hard-hit rate less important.
Joe Musgrove, Pirates (HH rate: 37.1%, ERA: 4.44)
There was some good and bad in Musgrove's 2020 debut, as a pair of home runs resulted in three runs allowed in 5.2 innings. He also walked three but did fan seven in the loss. It seems like he's been a breakout candidate for years, but he still has just a career 4.38 ERA and just can't seem to make the next step forward. Much of the optimism comes from Musgrove's solid career ratios, including an 8.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 3.87 FIP that is a full half-run below his ERA. So, what's stopping him from cashing in on the underlying metrics? One thing has to be the Pirates' defense. In FanGraphs' 2019 rankings, the Pirates finished last in team defense, even below the Orioles. Another thing has to be his fastball regressing. So, while Musgrove's slider took a big step forward in 2019, his fastball command took a step back. He simply hasn't put everything together, but if he does, the results could be there.
German Marquez, Rockies (HH rate: 37.9%, ERA: 4.76)
Marquez was a tough-luck loser on Friday, allowing just one run on two hits over 5.2 innings with a 6:3 K:BB in a loss to Texas. The Rockies' hitters couldn't manage a single run against Lance Lynn and the Texas bullpen. Marquez remains a difficult guy to roster outside of deep leagues, as you really don't want to use him at Coors Field, where he had a 6.26 ERA last season. His work on the road since 2018 has been stellar (3.25 ERA) and he'll miss enough bats to help you in the strikeout category, but unless you have a deep enough roster to use him as a streamer, he's not worth the downside, especially if the Rockies can't score runs.
Jon Lester, Cubs (HH rate: 38.6%, ERA: 4.46)
Unlike some others on this list, Lester's 2020 debut went well. All he did was toss five hitless innings against an improved Reds offense. Somewhat concerning, however, is that he struck out just one and generated a miniscule 1.3 percent swinging-strike rate while averaging just 89.2 mph with his fastball. The contact though was right at people, so despite that 11 of the 16 balls in play were hit in the air, they were mostly hit at people. Lester, 36, may be on the back side of his career, but incredibly, last year marked the 12th consecutive season in which he's made at least 31 starts. The 4.36 ERA wasn't good obviously, but he may still have some left in the tank.
