This article is part of our DFS MLB series.
Monkey Knife Fight is a prop- and parlay-based daily fantasy sports site that offers participants a unique way of "sweating" their favorite sporting events. Unlike conventional DFS sites, there is no salary cap to be concerned with and no other participants to compete against. Monkey Knife Fight contestants do not select a lineup of players, as is typically the case in traditional DFS contests.
Rather, each Monkey Knife Fight contest is based on real-world athletes from a given slate of games exceeding certain, predetermined statistical benchmarks. In certain contests, the athlete's performance in a certain category must exceed that of another pre-selected athlete in that same game. In others, the athlete is simply competing against a predetermined figure in a certain category (i.e., a specific number of points in an NBA game, a specific number of touchdowns in an NFL game, etc.).
As such, the success of each Monkey Knife Fight contest participant is fully dependent on the accuracy of their predictions, as opposed to their performance against other fellow players. Monkey Knife Fight offers a wide variety of contests for each of the sports it covers (currently NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Soccer, and Golf). Among the most popular are Over/Under and Rapid Fire, which we will cover regularly in this column.
In Over/Under contests, participants win when they correctly predict if a certain number of pre-selected athletes will surpass a specified statistical milestone in that day's game. In Rapid Fire, participants attempt to predict the winner
Monkey Knife Fight is a prop- and parlay-based daily fantasy sports site that offers participants a unique way of "sweating" their favorite sporting events. Unlike conventional DFS sites, there is no salary cap to be concerned with and no other participants to compete against. Monkey Knife Fight contestants do not select a lineup of players, as is typically the case in traditional DFS contests.
Rather, each Monkey Knife Fight contest is based on real-world athletes from a given slate of games exceeding certain, predetermined statistical benchmarks. In certain contests, the athlete's performance in a certain category must exceed that of another pre-selected athlete in that same game. In others, the athlete is simply competing against a predetermined figure in a certain category (i.e., a specific number of points in an NBA game, a specific number of touchdowns in an NFL game, etc.).
As such, the success of each Monkey Knife Fight contest participant is fully dependent on the accuracy of their predictions, as opposed to their performance against other fellow players. Monkey Knife Fight offers a wide variety of contests for each of the sports it covers (currently NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Soccer, and Golf). Among the most popular are Over/Under and Rapid Fire, which we will cover regularly in this column.
In Over/Under contests, participants win when they correctly predict if a certain number of pre-selected athletes will surpass a specified statistical milestone in that day's game. In Rapid Fire, participants attempt to predict the winner of site-determined head-to-head matchups between athletes in a certain statistical category for that day's game. In Rapid Fire contests, certain athletes that are considered the "underdog" in the statistical matchup may be afforded an extra built-in value boost. That is denoted by a "+" symbol and the specific additional amount -- both displayed in green -- that the athlete will be awarded above the total they actually accrue in that category during their game.
One additional aspect of contest logistics that's particular to Monkey Knife Fight is payout structure. For each contest, participants select from a wide variety of buy-in amounts, which are revealed once they make their athlete selections for that particular contest. If a participant wins their contest, their payout is based on that buy-in amount and the preset multiplier the contest featured. The latter figure varies depending on the contest difficulty. For example, a Rapid Fire contest requiring only two correct predictions carries a 2.36x multiplier on the buy-in, while one requiring five correct predictions features a 17x multiplier.
MLB Friday, July 26- Over/Under and Rapid Fire Predictions
Over/Under (Goal: Pick two of two correctly to cash 2.58x your buy-in)
Danny Santana, TEX– Over/Under 1.5 total bases
The Pick: Over
Santana is enjoying a breakout season, with all three components of his current .322/.353/.578 slash line either equaling or surpassing career bests. Santana's 14 homers and 42 RBI are also new high-water marks, while his 149 total bases on the campaign rank as the second-highest figure of his big-league tenure. As impressive as his season has been from a big-picture perspective, Santana is arguably generating his best production in July.
The slugger has nine multi-hit efforts during the month and exploded for six RBI in a blowout win over Oakland on Thursday. His matchup Friday lines up very favorably as well. The switch-hitting Santana gets a crack at right-hander Daniel Mengden, who's allowed a .333 average, .407 wOBA, 6.63 xFIP, 27.8 percent line-drive rate and 48.4 percent hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Santana checks in with a .330 average and .379 wOBA against right-handed pitching, including an elite 33.3 percent line-drive rate when facing righties on the road.
Given the metrics cited and the fact the Oakland bullpen comes in allowing a .270 average and .334 wOBA over the last week, points me in the direction of the over on 1.5 total bases.
Marcus Semien, OAK- Over/Under 1.5 hits + walks
The Pick: Over
Rangers starter Lance Lynn has put together a rock-solid age-32 season, posting a 12-6 record and generating the second-best K/9 (10.1) of his career. Lynn's average velocity is even at the highest point of his career (93.9 mph), certainly a neat trick for a pitcher of his age. However, he's had a bit of trouble over a small sample against Semien, with the A's shortstop touching him up for a single, a double and a home run over six career plate appearances.
Semien has also been a constant presence on the bases during July despite just a .247 average for the month. That's due to the veteran continuing to display a keener eye at the plate than at any other point during his career. Semien owns a .341 on-base percentage in July, and his .351 season figure in that category is by far the best of his career. Semien's 11.4 percent walk rate and 13.7 percent strikeout rate are also excellent, and he boasts .339 wOBA and .348 OBP against right-handed pitching.
Finally, it's worth noting the Texas bullpen has also been vulnerable on the road of late. Rangers relievers will check into Friday allowing a .342 wOBA on the road over the last month.
Rapid Fire (Pick two of two correctly to cash 2.36x your buy-in)
Indians at Royals
Runs + RBI
Whit Merrifield (+0.5) vs. Hunter Dozier, Royals
The Pick: Dozier
Merrifield has been one of the bright spots for the Royals in an otherwise dismal season. The 30-year-old is currently matching last season's career-best .304 average, while his .492 slugging percentage is easily a new high-water mark. Merrifield will have a tough matchup on paper against Indians starter Zach Plesac, but there's reason for optimism. Plesac has been at his weakest on the road, as he's allowed a .349 wOBA and 5.87 xFIP to right-handed hitters while striking them out at a mediocre 16.4 percent clip. Merrifield counters with a .323 average, .360 wOBA, 32.0 percent line-drive rate and 40.9 percent hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Dozier has been impressive in his own right, as he's enjoying a breakout campaign with a .286/.373/.542 line and 39 extra-base hits (18 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs). The right-handed slugger will also be in a good spot on paper against Plesac, given the latter's vulnerability to right-handed hitters on the road already cited. Dozier has blasted righty arms to the tune of a .324 average and .408 wOBA at home.
With both KC hitters sporting impressive numbers, the tie-breaker for me comes down to pitch splits. Dozier owns a .420 wOBA and .390 ISO against the mid-90s fastball that qualifies as Plesac's most often thrown pitch to right-handed hitters, while Merrifield sports a middling .290 wOBA and .117 ISO against that offering. Dozier also has the advantage against the pitch that's a close second for Plesac against righties, the slider. He boasts a .326 wOBA and .393 CXwOBA against the pitch, while Merrifield owns respective .275 and .295 figures versus the slider.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor vs. Jose Ramirez (+0.5)
The Pick: Lindor
Lindor owns an outstanding .480 average with six extra-base hits (three doubles, three home runs) against Royals starter Jakob Junis over 26 career plate appearances. The All-Star shortstop has only struck out twice against Junis as well, and Lindor owns a .312 average versus right-handed pitchers on the season. Lindor's .372 on-base percentage and .388 wOBA against righties on the road are markedly better than his figures versus that handedness at home as well. Junis checks in surrendering a .301/.362/.434 line to the 149 lefty bats he's faced at home.
Ramirez has underperformed this season, although he's been looking much more like himself of late. The switch hitter has a .338 average, .353 OBP and .413 wOBA across 85 plate appearances in July. Those are by far his best numbers of the season, but Ramirez still sports an abysmal .156 average, .253 OBP and .238 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road. He has been mediocre against Junis over his career, posting a .250 average across 27 career plate appearances.
Despite the built in 0.5-bases advantage for Ramirez, I like Lindor's chances in this head-to-head.
