This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Jose Berrios started the season a little slowly, but has looked much more like himself in his last two outings, and appears sharp at the moment. By contrast, Guardians starter Aaron Civale has been getting hammered, not making it past 4 innings in any of his starts thus far, and allowing 8 baserunners (better than two per inning) over his last pair of starts. With Toronto being offered at a pick'em price to have a lead after 5 innings, that seems more than reasonable, especially with Civale faring poorly against the Blue Jays last year (6 innings, 11 baserunners, 4 earned runs). By comparison, Berrios had a 2.25 ERA vs. the Guardians over 12 innings (two starts) in 2021.
MLB Best Bet for Blue Jays-Guardians: Toronto Blue Jays F5 -0.5, -110
Houston Astros 
vs. Detroit Tigers 
These are two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions right now, with the Astros playing about as well as they normally do, while Detroit has essentially fallen off the map this year, starting out 8-15 while going 2-8 over their last ten games. The Astros themselves are currently 8-2 vs. LHP, which should help their cause tonight, though it's worth noting Skubal threw a 7-inning one-hitter versus them last year. On the Astros side, Jose Urquidy was great at home last year, posting a 3.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in Minute Maid Park. Nice plus price on the run line here for a team with the clear edge.
MLB Best Bet for Astros-Tigers: Houston Astros Run Line +125
Seattle Mariners 
vs. Tampa Bay Rays 
(Robbie Ray vs. Shane McClanahan)
The Mariners are getting very little respect in the betting market, setting up shop in the Electric Factory tonight (where they are 7-2) with their reigning Cy Young award winner on the mound. While Rays starter Shane McClanahan is among the league leaders in strikeouts, teams haven't had much trouble getting to him, as he's allowed multiple runs in each of his last four starts while not going very deep into games. Ray has largely been in the same boat, but obviously has a better long-term resume than McClanahan, and the Mariners have won both of his home starts. I'm just not seeing why the Mariners should be an underdog here, especially with the mental boost they should receive from returning home tonight after a very tough road trip. Expecting a good effort.
MLB Best Bet for Mariners-Rays: Seattle Mariners Moneyline +117
Bonus Player Prop: Jesus Luzardo
As RotoWire readers probably know, Jesus Luzardo was an extremely well-regarded prospect in the A's system before being traded late last year (after a mostly terrible season) to the Marlins for Starling Marte. That deal sent up a bunch of red flags because even for a player like Marte (and especially for a short-term rental), it seemed a very bad sign that Oakland was willing to cut bait with Luzardo so early. With all that being said, Luzardo has looked great so far this year, racking up 28 strikeouts in just 20.1 innings while pitching to a good ERA/WHIP. Meanwhile, the Padres are among the league leaders in team strikeouts, and actually struck out 23 times yesterday alone (in a doubleheader). Good plus-money price on the capable Luzardo to record a pretty modest half-dozen strikeouts.
MLB Prop Bet for Marlins-Padres: over 5.5 strikeouts, +122
RotoWire Record
12-13, -0.73 units
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