This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks: Free MLB Bets and Props Today
Wednesday of this week is a great one. We get to see a ton of aces on the bumpski. On days like this, it makes choosing the right bets so difficult because a lot of the time you just want to bet on all the top pitchers. The selection is an important part of the process. After some soul-searching, I think we managed to narrow it down to the best picks. Let's roll.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-265) @ Washington Nationals (+220) Over/Under 8.5
One of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball is Sugar Shane McClanahan. I truly believe he has the best and most electric arsenal we've seen from a lefty since Randy Johnson. He's got four pitches with insane movement that he can throw for strikes, in any count. In this contest, we have a matchup of the future against the past as McClanahan battles the once-good Patrick Corbin. How can we attack this?
Tampa Bay remains the only undefeated team in the MLB. Their 5-0 mark has largely been in thanks to their back-to-back cakewalk opponents with the Tigers and Nats. In his first start, Sugar Shane went six scoreless innings with one free pass and six punchouts vs. Detroit. Now getting one of the true rebuilding lineups, it seems like a good spot to take advantage of his strikeout number again. Washington has already seen Spencer Strider ring them up nine times, and Drew Rasmussen seven times thus far. Not to mention, the Rays should score a lot of runs today against Corbin, who had a 6.31 ERA last year. Coming off an outing where he was lucky to only surrender two earned runs in three innings, fortune should not be in Corbin's corner again.
The Rays have scored 37 runs on the season, which is good for second in the bigs behind the Dodgers. Tampa was great against lefties last season, smashing for a .256 batting average and .710 OPS, both over 20 points higher than against righties. There are certain times where you just can't overthink things. Today appears to be one of those times. You have a good team against a bad team featuring a great starting pitcher against one whose rapid decline needs to be studied by Neil Degrasse Tyson or Bill Nye the Science Guy. That's why we're doing a player performance double, something I cashed yesterday with Luis Castillo and the Mariners.
MLB Picks and Props for Rays vs Nationals
- Shane McClanahan 6+ K's AND Rays ML (+120)
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White Sox (-134) vs. Giants (+120) | O/U 7.5
Dylan Cease Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts
Because of the matchup in his first start, I was on the rare Dylan Cease under strikeouts against Houston, which I was glad to be wrong about. He was my preseason pick for AL Cy Young a season ago, so when the committee announced Verlander won, I went ballistic. Anyway, in the new season, I loved what I saw from the White Sox ace against the defending World Champion Astros. 6.1 innings, one run, no walks, 10 punchies. It's arguably the best I had ever seen him look aside from a near no-hitter against the Twins. If this is the Dylan Cease we will be getting in 2023, then maybe he is ready for the Cy Young.
I'll save you the suspense. I'm the unofficial president of the Dylan Cease fan club. The first thing on my twitter bio is "#1 Dylan Cease fan." I pretty much always root for him. If we're looking at his K prop number today, we have to like the matchup. Facing a Giants team that had the fifth most K's in the MLB a season ago (1,462), DC is set up well for a potential encore performance. San Francisco saw Gerrit Cole pile up double-digit punchouts on Opening Day. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in this SF lineup, so if Cease Daddy can attack the strike zone like he did against Houston, it will be a long day at the office for this offense. Because he has the best pitch in baseball with that slider, all Dealin' Dylan has to do is be around the zone, and the rest will come.
The 7.5 is a common theme number for him, so I would expect it a lot more early in the season. You can get the over at even money. I just can't fade him, not here. I'm looking for Dylan to possibly go alternate with 10+ K's. One time for CEASEEEE.
MLB Best Bets for White Sox vs Giants
- Dylan Cease O7.5 K's (+100)