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We're coming down the home stretch here. What an exciting time in the sport! There are a lot of storylines I'm watching closely, but perhaps the biggest one is the status of my dear darling Seattle Mariners.
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Seattle Mariners (-130) @ New York Mets (+110) | Over/Under 8
The M's were my preseason pick to win it all for 2023. In typical fashion, they got off to a super slow start that lasted a lot longer than I thought it would. Basically, trading wins and losses for most of the first four months, Seattle just kept hovering around .500 until July 24th when they were 8.5 games back of the division. Since then, there has been no hotter team in baseball than the Mariners, a franchise that just logged 21 wins in the month of August. After dropping the opener at Citi Field on Friday, can they bounce back?
The AL West is a wild race right now. The mermen hold a share of the division at the moment with the Houston Astros, with Texas just one game out. Although Seattle lost last night, Houston and Texas both did as well, so no harm no foul. In a rebound spot, the Mariners will be sending my preseason AL Cy Young pick, Luis Castillo to the bump. La Piedra has been nothing short of sensational in 2023, which is why he is an extremely short co-favorite with Gerrit Cole for the award. LC leads the MLB in WHIP (1.00), is fifth in ERA (3.01), and 10th in K's (181). And from this point forward, every pitch is so crucial for not just the Cy Young award, but the Mariners' season.
While the Mets have been one of the biggest disappointments this year, let's not lose sight of the fact that they are still a talented team that cannot be taken lightly. In the middle of this lineup is Florida Gator legend, Pete Alonso, who is sitting on 39 taters and 96 RBI's at the moment. LC will have his work cut out for him tonight, as Francisco Lindor, Franciso Alvarez, and Brandon Nimmo have also strung together solid seasons as well. For Castillo, the struggles have definitely been more so on the road than at home. Pitching to a 3.65 ERA and .241 OBA away (2.49 ERA and .180 OBA at home), Castillo needs to be sharp tonight against a Mets' lineup that does not strike out a lot (8th in fewest K's) and walks a fair amount (12th in BB's). It is worth noting that the perception of La Piedra's road struggles can be pinpointed to a couple bad starts against the Angels and Red Sox where he gave up 12 of his 30 runs on the year. Racking up eight quality starts in his last 12 tries, I feel good about my Cy Young winner staying hot.
With the Mets throwing out David Peterson tonight, it's worth mentioning that against lefties, Seattle is hitting an astounding .261 this season. Peterson is coming off a great outing against the Angels, but the Mariners are a different animal right now. Of course the one thing that is concerning for the M's offense is how strikeout prone they are. No team has punched out more than them this year except for Minnesota. Nonetheless the Mets pitching doesn't intimidate me, other than when Kodai Senga punched out 12 over seven innings last night. It's a great spot for SEA to get back in the win column. Let's look for Julio Rodriguez to stay hot. I think the M's win with margin tonight, so the run line is a solid look, but I'm just putting out the money line.
Best MLB Bet Today: Mariners ML -130
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