This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This is my first PrizePicks article, and I can't wait to get into it. I've always loved props more than moneylines, and that's essentially what we're doing here on Prize Picks. It's much easier to analyze what a player will do rather than get a read on how a game will play out. With that said, let's dive into the PrizePicks plays we love for this Monday card.
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Best PrizePicks Plays for Monday, March 31
Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. ATH: More 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
I had Tucker as my top recommendation in my DraftKings article, and we're going right back to him for all the same reasons. This guy is simply one of the best producers in baseball, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game this season. He also hasn't scored fewer than seven fantasy points in any game, and this could be his best matchup of the season.
Tucker matches up with Joey Estes, who has a 5.16 career ERA. It also gives Tucker the platoon advantage from the left side, and he's posted a .389 OBP and .933 OPS against righties since 2023. It also makes this 30-20 threat more likely to steal, with Tucker recording over 75 percent of his swipes against righties.
Bowden Francis, TOR vs. WAS: More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
Francis is the best option on this slate, and it's hard to believe this strikeout line is so low. This is his first start of the season, but he had a 1.53 ERA and 0.53 WHIP across his final nine starts last year. He also had an 8.5 K/9 rate in that span, surpassing this total in seven of those.
All of that makes Francis intriguing against anyone but Washington is one of the best matchups in baseball. The Nationals were 24th or 25th in xwOBA, OPS and runs scored last season. Most importantly, they've allowed the opposing starter to record at least eight strikeouts in all three games this year. That equates to a league-worst 35 percent strikeout rate, which means Francis only needs to reach the fifth inning to surpass that total if that rate sustains.
Cade Povich, BAL vs. BOS: Less Than 4.5 Strikeouts
The Red Sox have revamped their lineup, and it might be one of the best offenses in baseball. They had trouble getting that going against the top of the Rangers' rotation, but facing the back end of Baltimore's rotation might be just what the doctor ordered.
Povich is their opposition here, with the lefty posing a 5.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP last season. He also had three or fewer strikeouts in half of those, and he only surpassed six Ks when he faced the Tigers and White Sox. Povich also might have trouble getting past the fifth inning, throwing just 82 pitches in his final spring training start nearly two weeks ago.
Gary Sanchez, BAL vs. BOS: Less Than 0.5 Walks
This was a strange one to see, but it's one of my favorite picks out there. Sanchez is primarily a backup option behind Adley Rutschman and traditionally has one of the worst eyes in baseball. He had an ugly 27.1 percent K rate last season while posting a 9.6 percent BB rate. In total, he recorded a walk in only 26 of 91 games last year.
The reason PrizePicks believes he might walk is because he faces a lefty with poor control. That should earn Sanchez a start near the bottom of the lineup, but he might only face Sean Newcomb once or twice with how limited his pitch count might be. If that ends up happening, Sanchez might get pulled for a pinch-hitter after one or two at-bats. That would be an ideal scenario to cash this pick, especially since there's no harm if he doesn't make the lineup anyway.
