This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Previews, Picks, and Predictions for Aug. 3
The MLB trade deadline ended with the less-than-average flurry of last-minute trades being completed among the league's buyers and sellers mainly because the Yankees were absent from any movements. Briefly, I give the Philadelphia Phillies an A+ for their acquisition of AL All-Star pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who will add significant depth to the backend of their starting rotation.
Lorenzen is a 31-year-old right-hander who spent his first seven years with the Cincinnati Reds before spending one year each with the Los Angeles Angels and then this year with the Chicago White Sox. On a weak team this year he went 5-7 but posted a 3.58 ERA and a career-best 1.098 WHIP.
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How Do Newly Acquired Starters Do in Their First Start with Their New Team?
There have been many solid betting opportunities after the MLB trade deadline has passed that have been consistent money makers over decades of action. Simply, starting pitchers who were acquired from the other league (Lorenzen came from the AL and isnow pitching in the NL) who are making their first start with their new club have gone 91-78 for 54 percent averaging a +102 wager on the money line and earning a 11 percent ROI since 2005. If this first start is on the road the results improve to 45-38 for 54 percent, but has averaged a +122 wager and increasing the ROI to a highly profitable 18.8 percent since 2005. Last, if the starter and his team are favored on the road, the record improves to 17-9 for 65 percent, averaging a -134 wager and earning a 24 percent ROI since 2005. Moreover, the under bet has produced a 16-8-2 record for 67% winning bets in this situation.
This set of parameters initially supports a bet on the Texas Rangers and newly acquired right-hander Max Scherzer, but given that he is at home and a heavy favorite, I would pass and would only bet a pizza money amount on the Rangers if they fall behind at any point during the first three innings of play.
The Most Puzzling Current Starting Pitching Trend Ever Seen
Last Friday, Minnesota Twins starter Sonny Gray recorded his 15th consecutive start without earning a win when the Kansas City Royals came from behind and won 8-5. Gray posted his fourth quality start in his last six, completing six innings of work while allowing three earned runs and striking out five batters. His last win was April 30 against the Royals.
Gray is too good a starting pitcher and the lucky baseball horseshoe will start turning in his favor down the stretch of the season. He will be making his fifth inter-league start this season and in his previous four he has amassed a 3.43 ERA and a 1.381 WHIP and striking out 24 batters over 21 innings of work.
St. Louis Cardinals skipper Oliver Marmol is just 11-28, losing 20 units per-unit-wagered when facing a team that has won between 50 and 55 percent of its games. The Cardinals are 14-24 losing 20 units per-unit-wagered in home games with a posted total between 8.5 and 10 runs this season. The Cardinals are coming off a 7-3 loss against the Twins Tuesday. However, they are only 4-13, losing 11.1 units per-unit-wagered following a win of four or more runs this season.
Player Prop Best for the Wednesday Card
- Bet Sonny Gray Over 17.5 outs recorded +115 at BetMGM
- Bet the Twins' Byron Buxton to hit a double +360 at Bet365
- Bet the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt to hit a double +425 at Bet365
- Bet the Angels' Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 strikeoutsn-140 at PointsBet
- Bet the A's JP Spears Over 16.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM
