This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 2-2 -0.2
Overall 145-116-2 +10.56
Boston Red Sox 
vs. New York Yankees 
8:08 pm EDT
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Gerrit Cole
Opening Line – Yankees -115 / 9; Current Line -123 / 8
Slight money on the Yankees, but a lot on the under which has moved a full run from 9 to 8. I think a few things are contributing to the move. J.D. Martinez might not play due to an ankle injury, but Bobby Dalbec has been just as good over the last two months. Also, the Yankees are without DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit.
The weather is also a factor as the game-time temperature is set to be 58 degrees with 8-10 MPH winds blowing in.
The season series is Red Sox 10-9 with the runs scored being just about dead even. In the games at Boston, The Yankees won 5-4 but the average score was 4.5-4.1 in favor of the Red Sox. Only 2 of the 9 games were less than 8 runs.
The Red Sox are a much better team at home hitting .281/.350/.481 vs. .241/.307/.418 on the road. Eovaldi is also a better pitcher at home with a 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP vs. 4.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road. He has had one bad start since August 11th and it was at home against the Yankees.
Cole pitched okay his last time out against Boston, going 6 innings with 6 strikeouts, 3 walks, and 3 earned runs. But he has not pitched great over his last 5 starts with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.
The Yankees have a significant edge in the bullpen, but in a one-game series in which these teams have had an extra day of rest it will not be as much of an edge. Also, the Red Sox will have more pitchers available in the bullpen vs. a normal regular-season game.
The Yankees have taken 5 in a row against the Red Sox and the total has gone under in 6 out of the last 7 games in Boston. The Red Sox are 8-2 in Eovaldi's last 10 home starts with the two losses coming against the Yankees. There is something I noticed on DraftKings that is very telling, though. Eovaldi is actually a stronger favorite over Cole in fewest hits, home runs, and walks allowed.
Boston is the 2nd highest scoring team at home in the first 5 innings at 3.64 runs per game. I feel more confident in the Red Sox being able to have the lead after the 5th inning vs. anything else tonight.
BET – Red Sox F5 (+100) for 1 RW buck
BET – Red Sox over 1.5 runs F5 (-140) for 1 RW buck
