MLB Bets Tonight: Expert Picks for Padres vs. Phillies, Sept. 5

MLB Bets Tonight: Expert Picks for Padres vs. Phillies, Sept. 5

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks and Player Props 
Phillies vs. Padres, Sept. 5

Among the 15 games that are set to be played across baseball Tuesday is a matchup between the Phillies and Padres in San Diego. Let's dive into the betting market for this game and highlight some wagers that could prove to be profitable.

Mike Barner's season record: 27-29 (-8.00 units)

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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets

Trea Turner got off to a terrible start to his tenure with the Phillies. Through his first 58 games with the team, he had just five home runs and a .642 OPS. However, he has caught fire as they make a push for a playoff spot. Over the last 27 games, he has slugged 12 home runs and nine doubles, resulting in a 1.186 OPS.

Turner is in a great spot to remain productive in a matchup against Pedro Avila. Injuries have forced him into the starting rotation and he has responded by giving up 11 runs (six earned) over 7.1 innings. At Triple-A, he had a 7.07 FIP and a 1.85 WHIP over 19 appearances, 15 of which were starts. Don't expect him to be able to slow down Turner.

Game Focus Best Bet Padres vs. Phillies: 
Trea Turner over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

Turner isn't the only member of the Phillies who has increased his production down the stretch. Not known for his ability to hit for average, Kyle Schwarber is 17-for-57 (.298) with 10 home runs and three doubles over his last 16 games. He also continued to draw plenty of walks, registering a .481 OBP during that span.

With how often Schwarber has been getting on base, he has scored at least one run in 14 of those 16 games. It helps that he bats leadoff and has the red-hot Turner behind him in the lineup. With Avila on the mound, look for Schwarber to cross home plate at least one more time.

Game Focus Best Bet:
Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 runs scored (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

Since we are already on two player-prop overs for the Phillies, let's take the team as a whole to have a big night at the plate. With Schwarber and Turner leading the way, the Phillies have averaged 7.0 runs over their last 11 games. During that 11-game stretch, they scored at least five runs nine times. It's difficult to envision Avila being the pitcher that cools them off.

Game Focus Best Bet: 
Phillies over 4.5 runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Padres vs. Phillies:

Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for Tuesday: 

  • Trea Turner over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
  • Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 runs scored (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
  • Phillies over 4.5 runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Barner
Mike started covering fantasy sports in 2007, joining RotoWire in 2010. In 2018, he was a finalist for the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Mike also won the 2022-23 FSGA NBA Experts Champions league. In addition to RotoWire, Mike has written for Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, DK Live, RealTime Fantasy Sports, Lineup Lab and KFFL.com.
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