This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Free MLB Picks Today: MLB Bets to Target for Thursday, April 6
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Season 4-7 -4.92 units
Prior Article 1-5 -6.63 units
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Last Friday was a rough one going 0-3 on sides in which I went 2 units on each. Baseball is a highly variant sport and handicapping will have a lot of swings, both high and low.
An early season observation is that offense is way up and you have to adjust accordingly. We have also seen a significant increase in margin of victory on a per-game basis. I will look at laying -1.5 a lot more vs. just taking the money line as well as looking at OVER on team totals. The weather has played havoc with today's card as we have 4 postponements already. With an abbreviated card, you want to play it conservatively. It looks like a lot of chalk today.
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Washington Nationals 
at Colorado Rockies 
The Nationals have gotten off to a 1-5 start and look to be headed toward one of the worst records in baseball already. They have allowed at least 6 runs in 5 out of 6 games.
Josiah Gray has a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings against the Rockies with just one of those games in Coors. While a young pitcher can develop a lot from 2021 to 2023, those numbers are hard to ignore. Gray was roughed up in his first start against the Braves for 5 earned runs in 5 innings including 3 home runs.
The Rockies have started 2-4, losing 4 in a row but all 6 games have been on the road. The Rockies are a much different team in Coors Field as their offense sees a significant park boost. They averaged 5.6 runs per game (1st in MLB) at home in 2022 while only scoring 2.99 runs per game on the road.
An interesting trend is the OVER is 12-5 in the last 17 games between these two teams in Colorado which speaks to the awful pitching on both sides. The Rockies are 18-12 straight up in their last 30 home games as favorites with 18 out of 30 also going OVER the total.
MLB Best Bets for Nationals at Rockies
- Rockies -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Rockies OVER 5.5 runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)
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San Diego Padres 
at Atlanta Braves 
Two of the best teams in the National League face off on Thursday with Blake Snell against Spencer Strider. I was on the losing side with Snell in his last start, and while his numbers since July 1 of last year are outstanding, this is not the spot to ride him.
The Braves are off to a 5-1 start (swept the Cardinals in St. Louis) and have been dominant at home going 14-2 in their last 16. Strider looked strong in his first start against the Nationals going 6.0 innings and allowing 0 runs with 9 strikeouts and three walks. Snell's start against Colorado was a mixed bag going just 4.1 innings, but nine strikeouts, three walks, and three earned runs allowed.
MLB Best Bets for Padres at Braves
- Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 1.05 units (DraftKings -105)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rockies -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Rockies OVER 5.5 runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)
- Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +130)
- Braves OVER 4.5 runs for 1.05 units (DraftKings -105)
