This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Friday, Sept. 1
Season: 95-114-1 -43.95 units
Prior Article: 2-4 -2.38 units
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Seattle Mariners 
at Cincinnati Reds 
Trends usually last five or 10 games in baseball before the oddsmakers made adjustments to bring things back to 50/50, but there is a strong trend for the Reds at home right now.
The Reds are 23-4 in their last 27 games at home to the UNDER. You rarely see a trend play how this strong for this long. The main reason is the ballpark definitely is one of the best hitting parks, the Reds offense really jumped in June, and the Reds' pitching has been dismal.
The Reds home totals were in the 10-11 range before finally getting slightly adjusted down recently in the 9.5-10 range. The total in the game tonight is 10 mainly because of rookie Connor Phillips. Rookie pitchers are tough to gauge because they could be nervous and walk a lot of batters early on or they could find success because the opposing team has not seen them.
I am going to follow the trends and go with the UNDER. The Mariners have gone 7-3 to the UNDER 10 runs in their last 10.
MLB Best Bets for Mariners at Reds
- Mariners/Reds UNDER 10 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
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Minnesota Twins 
at Cleveland Guardians 
I'm going back to the well with one of my favorite system plays – two stud starting pitchers, at least one weak offensive team, and a close moneyline. We have a great pitching matchup with Sonny Gray against Tanner Bibee. The Guardians pitching factory develops someone every year it seems, and Bibee has been the guy with a 14-8 record to the UNDER. But he is 9-1 to the UNDER at home this season.
The UNDER is 14-6 and 20-10 in Cleveland over the last 20 and 30 games. The starting pitching combined with their weak offense is a recipe for UNDER and it has played out over the long term.
MLB Best Bets for Twins at Guardians
- Twins/Guardians UNDER 8 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
Milwaukee Brewers 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
This time of year, oddsmakers are more focused on CFB and NFL, so you can find some soft lines in other sports like MLB. Andre Jackson's strikeout prop is 3.5 with some juice, but he averages 1 strikeout per inning and the Brewers are fifth worst in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
MLB Best Bets Brewers at Pirates
- Andre Jackson OVER 3.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
Miami Marlins 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
The Dodgers are on a run where you need to find any way to get them at reasonable prices and love the matchup in Miami with Clayton Kershaw tonight. Kershaw is 8-2 in his last 10 road games and the average score in those games has been 5.7-3.0. The Dodgers are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 against the Marlins.
MLB Best Bets Marlins at Dodgers
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
Boston Red Sox 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
The trends on this are also strong with the Red Sox OVER in 11 out of their last 12 road games, and 16-2 to the OVER in their last 18 overall. The Red Sox pitching staff is gassed and the number of eight is definitely within reach with Kutter Crawford against Zach Eflin.
MLB Best Bets Red Sox at Rays
- Red Sox/Rays OVER 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Mariners/Reds UNDER 10 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -102)
- Twins/Guardians UNDER 8 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
- Andre Jackson OVER 3.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
- Red Sox/Rays OVER 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
