This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, June 26
YTD 99-99-1
Prior article 1-1 ( +0.60 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Cleveland Guardians 
at Baltimore Orioles 
I love taking good teams getting plus money, and we get that again with the Guardians against the Orioles. Now I know the starting pitching matchup is not ideal with Carlos Carrasco versus Grayson Rodriguez, but the Guardians' offense plus their bullpen put them in a great spot each game, especially at this price.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Orioles
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (DraftKings +164)
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Chicago Cubs 
at San Francisco Giants 
I was going to take the Giants yesterday just off the sheer angle of how bad the Cubs have been on the road, but their starting pitching situation was in flux and it ended up a bullpen game. It did not matter as the Giants won, 5-1.
The Cubs originally were starting Shota Imanaga, but it is now Hayden Wesneski, who has not started since May 8. His numbers from May 13 through June 21 are 18.1 innings, 20 strikeouts, 11 walks, 5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 2.9 HR/9. The Giants should be able to get to him early and often.
The Giants are going with Hayden Birdsong, who had good numbers at Double-A but has struggled in two starts at Triple-A. This is a pure fade of the Cubs, who are 15-25 on the road, 5-15 in their last 20 (3.7-4.8 average runs per game for a -1.1 run differential). They are also 11-1 to the UNDER in their last 12 games against right-handed starting pitchers.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Giants
- Giants ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -122)
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were -130 yesterday, but the Blue Jays had the starting pitching edge and won the game, 9-4. Now we get the Red Sox with a significant pitching advantage with Kutter Crawford against Yariel Rodriguez. The Red Sox moneyline of -155 is above my threshold for a straight bet, so I look toward the run line or an alternative way to get behind Boston.
The Red Sox are averaging 5.6 runs per game in June; which is 0.63 runs per inning (I use 8.0 instead of 9.0 when a team is at home). This would put them at 3.2 runs over 5.0 innings, giving us great value with OVER 2.5 tonight against one of the worst pitchers in the American League.
MLB Picks for Blue Jays at Red Sox
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (DraftKings +164)
- Giants ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -122)
- Red Sox OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
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