Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports. When players suffer injuries, whether major or minor, it changes the landscape of the league. It impacts statistical output, wins, losses, and a litany of other things, not just for the injured player and their team, but often for an entire playoff race. This, of course, means an injury can also impact betting, be it bets that have already been logged or bets that will be made in the near future. With that in mind, let's look at a few significant recent injuries and assess how they may impact the MLB betting landscape. Injuries suck, but if you ignore them, you're ignoring reality, and we'll leave that to any White Sox fans who bet on their team to win the World Series this season.
Canadian sports fans, this article is sponsored by NorthStar Bets. Click here to get in on the action.
Looking Long
You may have heard that Ronald Acuna, the reigning NL MVP, tore his ACL. He is done for the year. That is such a bummer, especially given that he was coming off a remarkable 40/70 season, one which literally rewrote the MLB record books. Prior to the season, Atlanta had the second-best odds of winning the World Series. Now, Acuna and Spencer Strider (elbow) are done for the year, though the team has only fallen to fourth in terms of World Series odds. I would not be looking to take that bet just yet, but if the odds continue to get longer, I'd be interested.
Acuna's injury likely paves the way for the Phillies, already ahead in the NL East battle, to win the division, and they will likely battle the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. The books have already recalibrated on the Phillies and have them with the third-best odds to win the World Series. Of course, if you actually fear teams getting a bye (I don't), that may be a reason to steer clear. Atlanta will likely still grab a wild-card spot, though, and don't forget that when Acuna tore his ACL in 2021, Atlanta went on to win the World Series without him.
When the Padres went all-in, part of that was signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. Even though the Padres traded Juan Soto away to the Yankees this winter, they then poached Luis Arraez from the "technically an MLB team" that is the Miami Marlins, making this all feel more like a recalibration than a capitulation. If the season ended today, the Padres would have a wild card spot, but the expectation is that Bogaerts will be out into August with a broken shoulder.
Last season, Bogaerts debuted with San Diego with 19 homers, 19 stolen bases, a .280 average and 4.7 fWAR. Could his absence lead to the Padres falling behind the Giants in their own division, or the (slumping) Cubs and (surging) Cardinals in the NL Central? Well…maybe not. Bogaerts was still doing well in the field and on the base paths, but he was having the worst hitting season of his career. Through 47 games, he had a 0.4 fWAR, and yet the Padres were still prevailing. They remain a long shot to win the National League pennant or the World Series, but don't get discouraged about any Padres bets because of this. In terms of long-shot bets in the NL, they are my favorite.
Short Hoppers
Ranger Suarez, an early favorite for NL Cy Young thanks to his 1.70 ERA through 12 starts, took a comebacker off his hand Saturday. Fortunately, his X-rays came back negative, so any Cy Young bets related to him remain safe, but his pitching hand is swollen, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't miss a start or two. Keep an eye on the Phillies' rotation. If they have to call up a Triple-A pitcher or try to swing a bullpen game in Suarez's absence, that could be a good chance to bet against the team with the best record in baseball. At present, his next start is scheduled to be against the Mets in London, but if he misses more time, the Red Sox and Orioles loom after the Phillies return from England.
Vaughn Grissom, who admittedly wasn't hitting well but still was Boston's starting shortstop, is the latest Boston player to hit the IL after straining his hamstring Saturday against the Tigers. The oft-injured Tyler O'Neill (knee) is there again, as are Triston Casas (ribs), Trevor Story (shoulder), Masataka Yoshida (thumb) and Garrett Whitlock (elbow). It seems like a good time to bet against the banged-up Red Sox. This run of injuries may also push the Red Sox out of the playoff race, which is good news for anyone who bet on the Twins or Astros before the season. Those teams' slow starts mean they're facing more of a battle to get into the postseason than expected, but Boston could fall out of the picture before too long.
