MLB Barometer: Five Biggest Deadline Deals

The MLB trade deadline and the week leading up to it featured nearly 60 trades. I'll cover every fantasy-relevant trade in a longer article later this week, but for now, here's a quick look at five of the biggest deals of the deadline.

For any prospect included in one of these deals, I'll note his current level and his current rank on our Top 400 Prospect Rankings. I'll leave the deeper analysis there to those more qualified. For every major leaguer, I'll note their old and new park factors in terms of wOBA, the best measure of overall offense. (Higher means more hitter-friendly.) I'll also note their old role and their new one, or at least my best guess as of late Tuesday night.

Yankees get 3B/OF Jazz Chisholm
Marlins get C Agustin Ramirez (AAA, 138), 2B Jared Serna (A+, 196), SS Abrahan Ramirez (R, NR)

Much is the same for Chisholm after this move. He was an everyday player when healthy (which he's been all season) in Miami, and the same will be true in New York. He'll probably find himself hitting lower in the order more frequently, and he won't get an overall park upgrade, as Yankee Stadium checks in as more pitcher-friendly than loanDepot Park despite boosting left-handed power. He hasn't yet played a home game as a Yankee, but he's homered four times in a pair of away games against the Phillies and I'm already willing to consider the move an upgrade for a player who's been an MLB The Show cover athlete but has yet to eclipse 3.0 WAR in a season due to injuries and inconsistency.

That's provided that the frequently anti-fun Yankees organization allows itself to be brought up to Chisholm's level rather than demanding he stoop down to theirs, of course. If the team keeps feeding off his energy as it has the past few days, we could look back on this as the move that decides the AL East, especially since the Orioles failed to add anyone whose potential matches what Chisholm can provide. Take his 14 homers, 12 steals and 136 wRC+ in 60 games in an injury-shortened 2022 season and imagine the boost in counting stats that comes from sharing a lineup with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto instead of Otto Lopez and Nick Gordon, and you get an idea of the possible upside here.

Dodgers get SP Jack Flaherty
Tigers get C Thayron Liranzo (A+, 262), SS Trey Sweeney (AAA, NR)

Flaherty is having an outstanding comeback campaign after settling for a one-year prove-it contract with the Tigers. Among the 82 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched this year, he ranks 11th in ERA (2.95) and third in both xFIP (2.57) and SIERA (2.69). He's a great addition for the Dodgers, giving the team a terrifying three-headed monster of Flaherty, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw to leads its rotation. It's hard to envision any opposing team being favored in a playoff series if those three enter October in good shape.

Flaherty gets a boost to his win chances with the move to Los Angeles and should improve on his 7-5 record, but the fact that someone pitching like this could only garner such a modest return suggests that teams were worried about his health. The shoulder issues that plagued him in previous seasons haven't been a concern, but he's dealt with recurring back problems in recent weeks, receiving a painkilling injection on two occasions. Toss in Ken Rosenthal's report that the Yankees backed out of a deal for Flaherty due to medical concerns and it seems that while the Dodgers were comfortable adding him, they weren't pushed into much of a bidding war. Expect Flaherty to continue pitching well and to earn more wins for his efforts, but also expect him to be handled quite carefully until October, and that's the good outcome. The bad outcome is that the teams who declined to outbid the Dodgers are correct, and Flaherty's season is about to go off the rails.

Padres get RP Tanner Scott, RP Bryan Hoeing
Marlins get SP Robby Snelling (AA, 131), SP Adam Mazur (AAA, 193), 3B Graham Pauley (AAA 393), 2B Jay Beshears (A+, NR)

Scott was always going to be dealt at the deadline given that he was on an expiring deal and the Marlins had long since become sellers, but there were other potential landing spots where he'd have better odds of remaining a true closer than he does in San Diego. With the Padres, he'll have to displace Robert Suarez, who has 23 saves and a 1.48 ERA on the year. Suarez has allowed an earned run in just four appearances all season and in just one of his last 13, so he certainly doesn't deserve a demotion to a setup job. Scott does have an even better ERA (1.18) than Suarez and a better strikeout rate (29.1 percent vs. 26.1 percent), but his walk rate is nearly three times as high (14.8 percent vs. 5.0 percent). Scott throws from the left side and Suarez throws from the right, so it's possible the Padres intend to set up a co-closer situation. Hoeing adds depth to an already deep bullpen that also gained Jason Adam from the Rays. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher are the favorites to close in Miami after multiple players were shipped out by the Marlins.

Phillies get RP Carlos Estevez
Angels get SP George Klassen (A+, 164), SP Samuel Aldegheri (AA, 349)

Estevez is a quality addition to an already deep Phillies bullpen, as the 31-year old is in the midst of a career year with personal bests in ERA (2.38), WHIP (0.74), K-BB% (21.8) and SIERA (3.38). Those numbers helped him earn 20 saves for the Angels, and they would be enough to make him the top option in many contenders' bullpens. With the Phillies, that doesn't necessarily stand out among a high-leverage group that includes Jeff Hoffman (1.02 ERA, 26.9 K-BB%), Matt Strahm (1.80 ERA, 30.3 K-BB%) and Orion Kerkering (2.27 ERA, 21.9 K-BB%), to say nothing of the usually dominant Jose Alvarado, who still leads the team with 13 saves despite a recent slump that increased his ERA to 4.25. Estevez seems totally cool being just one of the guys, telling reporters he expected to be a "grain of sand" on a "beautiful beach these guys built." He might be a grain of sand that earns a meaningful number of saves, but he'll have a far smaller save share than he had in Los Angeles and a smaller share than he might have had in many other potential landing spots. As for his former team, fireballer Ben Joyce stands ready to take over the ninth inning with potential competitor Luis Garcia shipped to Boston in a separate deal.

Cardinals get SP Erick Fedde, OF Tommy Pham
Dodgers get IF/OF Tommy Edman, RP Michael Kopech, SP Oliver Gonzalez (DSL, NR)
White Sox get 3B Miguel Vargas, 2B Jeral Perez (A, 226), 3B Alexander Albertus (A, NR), player to be named later

This deal was a strange way for the White Sox to combine three of their biggest trade chips, landing Miguel Vargas of all people as the headliner. With Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert staying put, it's the sort of deadline that might cause the few remaining White Sox fans to find another hobby. That said, Vargas is probably the biggest winner here. As a good, but not great, hitter who doesn't add much with his glove or legs, he may turn out to be little more than a Quad-A player, but now that he's on a Quad-A team instead of a World Series contender, he'll have a chance to prove he's more than that. The move is also an upgrade for Fedde (3.11 ERA, 4.05 SIERA), who's in a much better environment for wins in St. Louis. Edman's fantasy value doesn't change much with the move, as he should feature regularly across multiple positions for his new club just as he did for his old one, though it's encouraging to see the Dodgers decide he's worth adding. He's eight games into his rehab assignment after a lengthy recovery from October wrist surgery. 

Pham and Kopech get to trade a race to avoid the worst record of all time for a race for the postseason, but their fantasy values both diminish with the deal. Pham was starting nearly every game for the White Sox and typically led off. He may be on the short side of a platoon with St. Louis, though he could also start against righties whenever the Cardinals decide they don't need Michael Siani's elite glove in center field. Pham has a 102 wRC+ on the season overall, but his 92 wRC+ against righties barely beats Siani's 87 wRC+ mark in that same split, so that might not happen that often. Kopech was the preferred closing option in the White Sox bullpen, earning nine saves while no one else earned more than two, but his 4.74 ERA and 1.35 WHIP wouldn't have led to that many chances on many other teams. He'll be much lower on the depth chart as a Dodger, although there's an outside chance his new organization can bring the best out of a pitcher who was a highly rated prospect in his heyday and should have some good years ahead of him still at age 28. The Dodgers have a fluid closer depth chart at the moment, with Evan Phillips sputtering and Daniel Hudson, Alex Vesia and Brent Honeywell all earning saves in July, but Kopech will likely start out behind most of those relievers and maybe others as well.