Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

With May approaching, the resumption of life as we once knew it finally seems to be getting closer.  Although things will certainly be different, including likely baseball games without fans, it would appear that by summer there should be live games in some shape or form.  With that, here are five tidbits before diving into this week's Minor League Barometer.

1.      First base in the minors is about as shallow as it has ever been in terms of elite talent.

2.      Michael Kopech's value likely ticks up for this season due to the delay, as does value for Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk.

3.      Keep an eye on the depth in the minor league system for the Blue Jays at the hitting positions.  They already have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third and Bo Bichette at shortstop, but Jordan Groshans and Orelvis Martinez are highly touted young phenoms at those respective positions.  This embarrassment of riches could make the Blue Jays primed for a big trade if they start the season hot, particularly for a frontline rotation anchor.

4.      The Indians system could have a boom-or-bust season.  The Tribe have a couple high upside teenagers in George Valera and Brayan Rocchio, with several players close to the big leagues (Bobby Bradley, Daniel Johnson, James Karinchak).  The progress of the aforementioned neophytes, as well as the contributions of the more experienced prospects, could shape the Indians outlook significantly for the foreseeable future.

5.      "The Martian" Jasson Dominguez received most of the pub from the J-2 signing class, and rightly so.  But it would be foolish to underestimate the second best prospect, Erick Pena of the Royals.  He has the tools to be the cleanup hitter for the Royals down the road.

Let's take a closer look at some more intriguing prospects.

UPGRADE

Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD – I think the long layoff has people overanalyzing things they shouldn't overanalyze.  The rumor circulated in mid-March that Lux might start the season in the minors, and suddenly his stock was supposedly on the downward trend.  Do the Dodgers have a plethora of middle infield options?  Sure.  Do any of them have the upside of Lux?  No.  He made his MLB debut at age 21 last September and subsequently appeared in 23 gamed down the stretch for the Dodgers.  Max Muncy is going to play first and Cody Bellinger is in the outfield.  So the competition is Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor.  Serviceable major leaguers who should be utilitymen, particularly with the addition of the 26th roster spot.  This seems to me like a classic case of overthinking.  Lux is 22 and has the chance to be a superstar.  Lux also probably gives the Dodgers the best chance to win now as well.  In other words, if Lux is somehow being discounted during the layoff, snatch him up.

Alek Thomas, OF, ARI – The Diamondbacks are stacked when it comes to future phenoms in the outfield.  Kristian Robinson is among the elite outfield prospects in baseball, while 2019 draftee Corbin Carroll is not that far behind.  Thomas is the third in the trio, and he raked as an 18-year-old at Low-A in 2019.  Thomas slashed .312/.393/.479 with eight home runs, 48 RBI and 11 steals in 91 games at that level.  His numbers dipped in 23 games at High-A, but the sample size is small, he still had two home runs and four steals during that span, and his youth cannot be discounted.  Now as a 19-year-old, Thomas will return to High-A this season and should take full advantage of the friendly hitting confines of the California League.

Jazz Chisholm, SS, MIA – Chisholm checks off several boxes from a fantasy perspective.  He's a top-notch prospect with a clear path to the big leagues.  He has hit at least 20 home runs and swiped at least 15 bags in each of the last two seasons.  That type of power/speed combination, with room to grow as well at just 22, should make him a hot commodity.  He does strike out a bit too much, but that is less of an issue in today's game.  He won't hit .300, but he also shouldn't hit .220 like he did last year either (he was much better in terms of average after a dreadful first two months in 2019).  In sum, Chisholm at his peak could have 30/25 potential, which is exceedingly valuable in the fantasy realm no matter what his average looks like.  He could even debut in the big leagues in 2020.

Hudson Head, OF, SD – Head is a chic pick to skyrocket up the prospect ranks.  The toolsy prep center fielder from Texas lasted until the third round of the 2019 draft for some reason, but he had first-round talent.  Head is polished beyond his years with the bat, makes consistent contact and hits to all fields.  He has above-average speed and should provide some steals.  Whether his power stroke develops will determine if he can become a future fantasy stud.  He has plenty of room to grow, excellent bat speed and the right swing for this to happen.  Head will not see the big leagues for a few years, but he could end up being one of the better outfield prospects in baseball by the time he is ready for his premiere.

CHECK STATUS

Jhoan Duran, P, MIN – Pundits are split on whether Duran will remain a starter or end up in the bullpen.  He can hit triple digits on the radar gun with his heater, and also has a power sinker that induces a bevy of ground balls.  In seven starts at Double-A to finish the 2019 campaign, Duran posted a 2.67 GO:AO.  He notched a 41:9 K:BB in 37 innings at that level, though his ERA was 4.86.  The development of a third pitch, likely a curveball, will go a long way toward determining Duran's future path.  He can get by now with only two pitches, albeit two stellar offerings.  However, he likely will return to Double-A in 2020 to work on that third pitch, as well as ensure his newfound control is legitimate.

Shane Baz, P, TB – It looks like the Rays got a steal with Baz, who was once the No. 12 pick in the draft but struggled with control early in his professional career.  The Player To Be Named in the Chris Archer deal, Baz rebounded in 2019 at Low-A.  He accumulated 87 strikeouts in 81.1 innings.  Although he did walk 37 batters during that time, Baz managed to limit the damage en route to a 2.99 ERA.  Batters hit a putrid .213 against him.  Baz should start at High-A and will turn 21 in June.  His 100 mph fastball as well as superb slider should give him an edge, though the Rays arguably have the most unique deployment of pitchers at the big-league level.  In other words, Baz could end up being an opener or a member of the bullpen instead of a more traditional starter.

Francisco Morales, P, PHI – There seems to be a theme developing in this section, as Morales is another starter who could end up being incredibly effective in the bullpen.  Still, his numbers look impressive at Low-A from a season ago, as he posted a 3.82 ERA and 129:46 K:BB in 96.2 innings as a teenager.  Of course, this may not be surprising given his size, athleticism and devastating fastball-slider combination.  He really doesn't have a third pitch, though, and has had issues locating his pitches at times.  He will need to be more consistent with his control and work on that third pitch (maybe a changeup, maybe something else)  to secure his path as a future frontline starter in the Phillies organization.

Heliot Ramos, OF, SF – I've gone back and forth a lot over the last two years on Ramos, who is just two years older than Marco Luciano but has already played at Double-A.  Ramos is athletic and explosive, and hit higher than .300 with 13 home runs in 76 games at High-A before a promotion.  He scuffled a bit in a small sample size of 25 games to end the season, albeit as one of the youngest players at Double-A.  Ramos strikes out a bit much for my liking, and he hasn't converted that raw power into a plethora of home runs just yet.  As he fills out and matures, the power numbers should go up, but any steals likely will evaporate.  He's so young that it's difficult to get a handle on whether he will hit for average at the higher levels, or cut down the strike zone at the very least.  Will experience improve his plate discipline and patience at the dish?  Ramos also had an oblique strain in March, but that may be moot by the time play resumes.  Ramos could explode into one of the best prospects in baseball, or he could scuffle against older competition.

DOWNGRADE

Matthew Liberatore, P, STL – It seems weird that the Rays would essentially give up on Liberatore after just a year and change of starts.  It's not like they received a Herculean haul in return.  Do they know something that we don't?  Liberatore's surface stats for the 2019 campaign are fine.  In 16 outings (15 starts) as a 19-year-old at Low-A, the southpaw compiled a 3.10 ERA and 76:31 K:BB in 78.1 innings.  He missed a bit of time due to back spasms in August.  He struggled a bit with control, though he did induce a bevy of ground balls (1.52 GO:AO).  Liberatore has four pitches already, which includes a standout curveball.  The southpaw does not seem to project as a frontline rotation anchor, though, which may mean the Rays have less of a use for him than other organizations (see discussion on Shane Baz above).  Or perhaps Tampa felt it had simply too many arms with Baz, Shane McClanahan, Joe Ryan and Brendan McKay at or near the big leagues.  Still, after selecting Liberatore in the first round of the 2018 draft, this seems curiously like the Rays trying to gain as much value as they could for Liberatore before others catch on.

Yerry Rodriguez, P, TEX – Rodriguez had been brought along slowly by the Rangers, though he also had a PED suspension in 2017.  Still, as a 21-year-old at Low-A in 2019, he was dominant in 13 starts.  Rodriguez posted a 2.08 ERA and 85:21 K:BB in 73.2 innings.  The opposition hit a paltry .176 against him.  Unfortunately, Rodriguez was shut down midseason due to a UCL injury, and a decision still has not yet been made as to whether he will undergo Tommy John surgery.  This certainly casts a dark cloud over Rodriguez in the near future, as he turned 22 in the offseason.  Although now could be the best time to have the surgery given the uncertainty surrounding the 202 campaign, it is likely Rodriguez would miss all of the 2021 season as well if he went under the knife.  Then suddenly he would be a 24-year-old hurler upon his return who has never pitched above Low-A.  That would certainly diminish his prospect value significantly.

Jonathan India, 3B, CIN – Admittedly I have been hard on India, but those are the expectations when you are a top-5 pick in the MLB draft (2018).  India has underwhelmed to say the least.  He's never hit above .270 at any level, hit a career-high 11 home runs in 121 games last season, mostly at High-A, and has only average speed.  The lack of power is particularly disturbing for a third baseman, as are the low RBI totals.  India does have a good eye at the dish, but none of his tools are flashing now, and he projects more as a utilityman than an everyday player.  The narrative could certainly change with a big season, likely starting at Double-A for the 23-year-old, but another mediocre campaign could completely wipe him off the prospect map.

Austin Beck, OF, OAK – Beck is also a first-round pick (2017) who has failed to live up to lofty expectations.  Beck was supposed to have plus power and plus speed, but neither has shown up thus far during his brief time in the minors.  Even worse, Beck has poor discipline at the plate, as he fanned 126 times in just 85 games at High-A in 2019.  He draws a limited number of walks and makes inconsistent contact.  Beck will be given every opportunity to turn things around.  He's likely to repeat High-A if play continues in 2020, and he must show some progress.  Unlike the aforementioned India, who still should make his way to the big leagues at some point, Beck is at risk of toiling in the minors indefinitely without at least some improvement.