This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Even on a big slate, I like having the crutch of picking on the Padres with a cheap pitcher.
With the Padres hosting the Rockies in a matinee, that isn't an option Tuesday, which is one of a few small twists that adds up to create a uniquely challenging big slate.
Yu Darvish is cheap, but he's coming back from a bout with influenza to face the Braves -- on the road no less.
Gerrit Cole is affordable relatively to the elite numbers he's posted this season, but he'll face an Angels team that simply doesn't strike out much, in addition to being above average production wise.
A pair of young mid-tier starters are matched up against each other as Jack Flaherty and Jose Berrios go at Target Field.
All in all, it's going to be a great night of games to watch, but building lineups today has felt difficult thus far.
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Pitcher
Cash: Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. TOR ($10,000) -- The Blue Jays have been a league-average offense against right-handed pitching (101 wRC+), while showing an ability to somewhat limit strikeouts (22.6% K%) this season. Considering that five of the top seven pitchers in terms of K-BB% are pitching on the road Tuesday with mostly tough matchups, the list of "safe" cash plays is shorter than usual for a big slate. Without question, Thor has warts with his command, which makes him surprisingly hittable at times for a pitcher with his arsenal, but he continues to miss bats at an excellent clip with 54 strikeouts in 46.2 innings this season (10.4 K/9). Run support could be an issue, however, as the Mets' lineup has been awful against left-handed pitching this season (60 wRC+, 26.8% K%).
Also consider: Zack Greinke, AZ vs. MIL ($9,500)
GPP: Gerrit Cole, HOU at LAA ($11,800) -- Cole's dominance in 2018 is particularly apparent when you look at his game log -- his lowest FanDuel point total this season is 43 -- and that occured when he faced the Angels for on April 23. Put another way, Cole's performance this season is better than the average performance of the rest of the starters on the board Tuesday by at least seven points. The Angels continue to be a strong offense, both in terms of overall production against righties (110 wRC+) and their stinginess with strikeouts (19.0% K%). Is Cole taking the leap to elite status for good -- a la Max Scherzer in 2013? It certainly looks that way.
Cheap GPP: Jose Berrios, MIN vs. STL ($7,500) -- Berrios has struggled over his last four starts, allowing at least four runs each time out, and posting an 11:8 K:BB in that span (18.1 innings). A quick glance at the velocity charts shows that very little has changed on that front, and perhaps those struggles can be attributed to a couple of difficult road matchups against the Angels and Yankees, and a pair of days where he just didn't have his best stuff against the White Sox and Reds. Tuesday's home matchup against the Cardinals is hardly a cake walk (94 wRC+, 22.9%), but the price has fallen enough to consider buying in with the hope of a bounce back. The ownership rate might be pretty low with Berrios, since there will be a lot of interest in Cards starter Jack Flaherty ($5,800) on the other side of this matchup.
Catcher/First Base
Edwin Encarnacion, CLE at DET ($3,700) -- Francisco Liriano's rebound to begin 2018 is a nice story. Even if it continues, right-handed power bats might be his Achillies heel. Since the start of 2016, Liriano has allowed a 1.31 HR/9 and .350 wOBA to righties, and the latter mark falls in the bottom-five of the 28 starting pitchers in action for Tuesday's main slate. The Wilmer Flores against a lefty option exists Tuesday as well ($2,600 against Jaime Garcia at the Blue Jays) as a cheap alternative or to fill the Utility slot.
Second Base
Jose Altuve, HOU at LAA ($4,200) -- Altuve has been a regular consideration in my lineups at his currently depressed price. The lack of power (two homers) and speed (two steals) along with a step back across the board in his slash line (.305/.358/.402) has made playing him frequently a disappointment all too often, but Angels starter Jaime Barria is a low-K% righty who has shown a reverse split early in his big-league career (.336 wOBA allowed to righties). With or without Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera is a consideration for this spot as well, but at $3,900, you may have the extra $300 available to go with Altuve instead.
The cheapest play I like is Rougned Odor at $2,200 against Mike Leake, but that seems highly unlikely to fly under the radar, even though he's hit seventh for the Rangers in each of his two games since returning from the DL.
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD at MIA ($3,000) -- Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen has struggled in a big way this season, and he'll face a Dodgers lineup that is expected to have Turner in it for the first time in 2018 on Tuesday night. Turner's ability to mash lefties includes an 1.108 OPS against southpaws last season, while Chen has a two-year split against righties that includes a 1.83 HR/9. The only real drawback of targeting Dodgers bats against Chen is that the game is being played in Miami, where run production is suppressed more than any other park in play Tuesday (three-year run index: 84, RH HR: 83, LH HR 86). Ownership rates on Turner might be extremely high given the low price and favorable matchup, leaving Colin Moran ($2,900) as a pivot option in tournaments against Reynaldo Lopez (1.89 HR/9, .320 wOBA vs. LHH since the start of 2016).
Shortstop
Trea Turner, WAS at ARI ($3,800) -- The price hasn't changed since Friday when I recommended Turner against Arizona starter Matt Koch, even though the matchup is tougher this time around against Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees. Turner's top-end speed gives him plenty of paths to make value at this price, and the 8.5 over/under in the Nats-D-backs matchup may get overlooked with Tanaka and Gio Gonzalez squaring off. Tanaka's ongoing struggle with homers includes a 1.40 HR/9 since the start of 2016, giving Turner an extra nudge in this spot.
Outfield
David Peralta, ARI vs. MIL ($3,300) -- Peralta's career-high .504 SLG might be used as an argument that the humidor at Chase Field isn't working. The splits tell a different story, as he's slugging .422 at Chase Field in 2018 after slugging .477 and .470 at home in 2016 and 2017, respectively. While the humidor is working almost exactly as expected/predicted, Arizona bats can still be viable in the right matchups. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 13.9% K%, 1.19 HR/9 and .339 wOBA allowed against lefties since the start of 2016, making this a particularly enticing matchup for Peralta, who boasts a career 17.7% K% against right-handed pitching. Moreover, the D-backs have Zack Greinke starting Tuesday, giving them a better chance to operate with a lead in the late innings, and potentially avoid some of the Brewers' dominant relievers (plus, Josh Hader pitched two innings Monday is likely unavailable).
Gregory Polanco, PIT vs. CHW ($3,500) -- The Pirates are projected to score five runs against Reynaldo Lopez and the White Sox on Tuesday, and the lefty-righty matchup against Lopez is particularly favorable considering Lopez's splits (1.89 HR/9, .320 wOBA vs. LHH since the start of 2016). Polanco was red-hot to begin the season, but he cooled off for nearly three weeks to close out April. Since the calendar flipped to May, Polanco is hitting .306/.396/.583 with two homers, five RBI and a stolen base in 10 games. Similar to Nomar Mazara in Texas, I am optimistic that we're going to see the best season yet from Polanco in 2018, which makes me content to continue utilizing him as long as he stays in the mid-$3K range.
Adam Jones, BAL vs. PHI ($3,100) -- The Orioles' 17-run outburst Sunday against the Rays felt long overdue, but the Baltimore offense showed signs of life earlier in the week with 11 runs last Thursday against the Royals and nine runs Friday in the series opener with Tampa Bay. Since May 4, Jones has been locked in as the O's No. 2 hitter, after he started the first 31 games in the clean-up spot for manager Buck Showalter. The matchup Tuesday is righty-righty against Nick Pivetta, which should keep ownership rates light, but Pivetta's 2.16 HR/9 and .375 wOBA allowed against righties are among the worst splits on the board Tuesday night.
