This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
14 games are featured in a Tuesday main slate that is loaded with top-tier pitching.
Pitching Breakdown
Clayton Kershaw ($12,000) leads a whopping six arms with five-figure salaries, and he's going to be incredibly popular against a surging yet still awful Marlins lineup. Miami fans only 21.9 percent of the time against lefties, which could cap his upside, but the floor seems incredibly high against a lineup with the third-lowest wRC+ at 81.
Mike Clevinger ($10,700) and Chris Sale ($10,500) are set to face off against each other. Sale's feast or famine nature has continued all year, as he's topped 50 FDP in three of his last five starts but been worth just 18 total FDP in the other two outings. The Indians put the ball in play against lefties, suggesting a 10+ K outing from Sale isn't in the cards. Clevinger has been the opposite, showing amazing consistency. His 30 FDP outing July 12 against Minnesota is his lowest total of the second half, with every other outing being worth at least 43 FDP. For differing reasons, both are intriguing GPP targets with likely low-ish ownership.
Matthew Boyd ($10,400) and Lance Lynn ($10,300) are likely going to be forgotten about among the other big names, and both appear to offer some value. Boyd just put up 50 FDP against the Mariners three starts ago, and has fanned at least eight in seven of his last eight outings. Mix in the Mariners' 26.4 percent K rate and there's a recipe for success. Lynn's season continues to defy logic, as his 3.66 xFIP is a career low, while his 10.34 K/9 is a career high at age 32. He's gone for 45 or more FDP in four straight, and 40 or more in nine of 12. I'm not sure why you'd fade that against a Blue Jays side that ranks 25th with a .305 wOBA against righties while fanning 24.6 percent of the time.
Zack Wheeler ($10,100) has been great since returning from injury prior to the trade deadline, allowing only three runs over 20.1 innings. The Braves have had his number though, scoring 13 runs across 24.2 innings. Form versus history is the decision for GPPs, as Wheeler cannot be considered for cash given the matchup. Domingo German ($9,600) rounds out the upper echelon of arms, and gets lowly Baltimore. The win potential is huge and obvious, and he's been worth 113 FDP total in three previous starts against the O's with a low of 30. That's some attractive savings for cash lineups. Jack Flaherty ($8,900) is in the same relative spot against the Royals. There's a huge win chance (-200), and he's fanned at least seven in five straight starts with a 34 FDP floor in that stretch.
A plethora of southpaws are available for the taking, but none seem to have plus matchups. Max Fried ($8,400) is arguable in the best form, but faces a Mets side that ranks seventh with a .340 wOBA while fanning only 23.8 percent of the time. Madison Bumgarner ($8,600) presents worse against an A's lineup that fans a league-low 17.7 percent of the time while posting a .343 wOBA against lefties. Jose Quintana ($8,900) doesn't move the needle much against the Phillies either, a lineup that has only a 94 wRC+ but fans 22.1 percent of the time. We can find plenty wrong with Brendan McKay ($8,000) and we'll be stacking against Alex Wood ($7,600) later.
Joe Ross ($7,100) and Brett Anderson ($6,700) aren't foolproof but look to be my preferred targets if I'm paying down for pitching. Ross hasn't allowed a run over his last two starts, fanning eight in 11.1 innings. He's been brutal at home, but the Reds' carry only a 90 wRC+ into Tuesday, hopefully keeping Ross' combustibility in check. Meanwhile, Anderson has averaged 27.1 FDP over his last seven appearances and faces a Giants offense that is coming back to earth after a mid-July surge. San Francisco has a .291 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against lefties, even if they fan only 23.7 percent of the time.
Key Chalk/Value
Chalk always starts in Coors Field, where Jon Gray ($6,500) will battle Arizona's Zac Gallen ($7,000). Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) leads five players priced above 4k, so high exposure may be a challenge. Some secondary options that could pan out include Jake Lamb ($2,900), who has decent success against Gray in limited at-bats, or Jarrod Dyson ($3,200) as Gray has been more vulnerable to lefties. Daniel Murphy ($3,200) is in play as well, hitting third between Trevor Story ($4,500) and Nolan Arenado ($4,400).
The Yankees have faced the Orioles five times since the All-Star break and have scored at least eight runs every time out. John Means ($6,100) hasn't been awful this year, but appears to be fading down the stretch, having allowed seven runs over his last seven innings, including four in 3.2 last time out against New York. DJ LeMahieu ($4,300) has crushed lefties all year to the tune of a .446 wOBA and 182 wRC+, while the power potential from Aaron Judge ($4,000) and Gary Sanchez ($4,000) isn't overpriced here. Mike Tauchman ($3,800) has cooled some over his last two games, and I don't love the price, but he works, as does Gleyber Torres ($3,600), who has homered three times in the last two games.
A 10-run total feels low for Minnesota and Milwaukee with Martin Perez ($6,200) and Chase Anderson ($7,200) facing off. Perez has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts, allowing 32 hits across 21 innings. Milwaukee doesn't have great splits against lefties however, and with Christian Yelich ($4,700) still a question mark, we're left looking at Keston Hiura ($3,400), Lorenzo Cain ($3,000) and Manny Pina ($2,300) to get us exposure against Perez. Anderson has been quietly effective, allowing two or fewer runs in nine straight starts. I wouldn't fade the Twins sluggers, but I'm not running to buy them either with so many other plus matchups available.
Ignoring the Cardinals bats against Glenn Sparkman ($5,900) doesn't seem wise, as he's allowed 22 runs across his last four starts, spanning just 19.2 innings. Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) is the obvious play, but Sparkman's .375 wOBA allowed to lefties means we could find some value in Dexter Fowler ($3,300), Kolten Wong ($2,900) and even Matt Carpenter ($2,900).
Stacks
Nationals vs. Wood (Reds)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,200), Trea Turner (SS - $3,500), Howie Kendrick (1B - $2,400)
Wood hasn't thrown enough to have discernible splits, but he has allowed nine runs across 14.1 frames to date. Rendon is a heck of an anchor here, sporting a .419 wOBA, 159 wRC+ and .307 ISO against lefties. Turner's price is simply too low for his upside even if his .337 wOBA since the All-Star break isn't ideal. A healthy Kendrick and his .390 wOBA and 140 wRC+ work very well given the price, as does whomever is behind the dish between Yan Gomes ($2,700) and Kurt Suzuki ($2,100), both of whom have a .392 wOBA and 141 wRC+ or better against southpaws.
Dodgers vs. Jordan Yamamoto (Marlins)
Cody Bellinger (1B - $4,600), Max Muncy (2B - $3,800), Corey Seager (SS - $3,200)
Yamamoto has come back to earth after a hot first month, allowing four or more runs in four straight starts while never lasting more than six frames, surrendering 19 runs over his last 20.0 innings overall. While he's allowed only a .333 wOBA to lefties since the All-Star break, he's also surrendered a 7.80 FIP and 60.0 percent hard-hit rate. Cost isn't an issue here; maybe that makes Dodger lefties incredibly chalky, but seemingly rightfully so.
Cubs vs. Jason Vargas (Phillies)
Javier Baez (SS - $4,200), Kris Bryant (3B - $3,800), Nicholas Castellanos (OF - $3,500)
The Cubs are terrific against lefties top to bottom, so there's no shortage of options, but with Bryant coming in at a sub 4K price, these three aren't too cost prohibitive. Bryant has a .469 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .365 ISO against lefties to date. Baez checks in at .423/163/.352, while Castellanos has enjoyed the protection his new lineup offers him, collecting 17 hits, 10 for extra-bases, in 11 games (46 ABs) since joining the Cubs. Victor Caratini ($2,600) is a decent fall-back option if you need to save.
