This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A larger than usual 11-game slate is on tap Saturday evening. I won't hide it, my picks yesterday ended up being pretty bad. Seems a rebound is in order, so let's dive in and see where we can find some guys to click this evening.
Pitching
Three arms are priced in five-figures, but none are in good form, suggesting we don't need to target any of them. Their matchups aren't bad, so feel free to use any of them if they fit your budget; they'll likely come with low usage.
But I think we can save a bit on the bump. A pitcher's duel could be in store in St. Louis, with both Charlie Morton ($9,700) and Jordan Montgomery ($9,400) in elite form. Morton has posted 48 FanDuel points (FDP) or better in three of his last four outings, striking out at least seven in all four while fanning 23 in his last two. Montgomery, meanwhile, is coming off a complete-game one-hitter, needing only 99 pitches, so there shouldn't be a concern of fatigue. He's now allowed just one run across his last 25.2 innings, striking out 24. In the same price tier, Sonny Gray ($9,200) gets a rapidly fading San Francisco offense, and Merrill Kelly ($9,000) profiles similarly with the White Sox inured and limping into September.
Domingo German ($8,600) will likely be popular against Oakland, and rightfully so. But he's coming off of a season-long 6.1 innings, speaking to his low ceiling. He's a fine cash play, but I'd stay away in GPPs. For a little savings, Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,200) against Texas has more upside.
For me, the pay down options start and stop at David Peterson ($7,500) vs. Colorado. The Rockies don't strike out a lot, but the number goes up on the road where they have just a 68 wRC+. He'll need the strikeouts to play up here as he doesn't have innings upside, but he's proven capable of 30 FDP.
Top Targets
Athletics' starter Adam Oller is allowing a .435 wOBA to righties at home, where he has a 7.71 ERA and 7.38 FIP. As such, it makes sense to build around Aaron Judge ($5,000) despite the huge price tag, as he's the only Yankee regular with a wOBA greater than .351 against righties, checking in with a .448 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .362 ISO.
Stacking the Astros' core is not an option due to elevated prices. But I'd expect a bounce back showing after they were shut out Friday. Yordan Alvarez ($4,200) has a team-leading .428 wOBA, 187 wRC+ and .325 ISO, while Alex Bregman ($4,500) is surging as the price indicates, with three multi-hit games in his last four, and checks in second with a .395 wOBA, 163 wRC+ and .235 ISO against righties. Finally, Kyle Tucker ($4,100) could go overlooked and has a decent .382 wOBA, 154 wRC+ and .236 ISO in this spot.
Bargain Bats
I'm not sure which is worse; Dallas Keuchel on the mound, or the Tigers' offense he's facing. If we trust him to continue his struggles, small shares of the Detroit lineup make sense. Javier Baez ($2,800) makes the most sense if he's back in the lineup, with a .367 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Kody Clemens ($2,000) has shown capable against lefties, and Eric Haase ($2,600) is 6-for-13 with a homer against Keuchel.
Similarly awful have been the Reds all season, but grabbing a share against Paolo Espino, who has allowed 17 runs across his last five starts, makes some sense. Jake Fraley ($2,900) has a team-best .374 wOBA and .277 ISO against righties.
Ha-Seong Kim ($2,600) has a team-best .363 wOBA and 137 wRC+ against lefties and has collected five hits in his last two games. He's a nice option Saturday, especially if he remains in the leadoff spot.
Stack to Consider
Mariners vs. Guardians (Zach Plesac): Julio Rodriguez ($3,700), Mitch Haniger ($3,700), Jesse Winker ($2,600)
Truth be told, I don't love stacking any lineup Saturday, and the Vegas run totals seem to agree, with all games coming in with over/unders between 7 and 8.5 runs. This game sits on the low side, but that's because of Luis Castillo's presence on the mound for Seattle. Plesac opposing him has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts, and has a 5.88 ERA and 4.82 FIP in the second half. He doesn't have targetable splits against left- or right-handers, so we're falling back on taking the top of the Mariners' order. Haniger is a fine stand-alone play, having posted double-digit fantasy points in four of five. Rodriguez has just one hit in his last 15 at bats, but it left the yard, and we know the upside he comes with. Winker simply helps balance this financially, giving us a lefty bat to pair with two righties and more top-of-the-order presence.
