This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A limited five-game slate is on the docket Monday evening, with first pitch coming at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitching Breakdown
Patrick Corbin ($10,500) leads the way in this limited slate. He's had a floor of 28 FanDuel points over his last eight starts, topping out at 61 while hitting 40 in six of those outings. Mix in that he's fared well against Philadelphia (seven runs, 16 hits allowed over 19 innings, 24 K's), and he's an automatic cash game buy.
A surging Adam Wainwright ($9,200) follows and offers some salary relief. He's averaged 40 FDP over his last four starts entering a matchup with a slumping Diamondbacks' offense. Wainwright dominated Arizona back in mid-July for 52 FDP, fanning seven over seven innings while allowing just four hits and one run.
Steven Matz ($8,900) will certainly draw some eyes in a plus matchup against the Marlins. Miami's season-long struggles against lefties include a .289 wOBA and 79 wRC+, both the second-lowest in the league ahead of Pittsburgh. Matz has allowed seven runs and 18 hits to Miami across three starts, spanning 15.2 innings, striking out 16.
Zach Eflin's price ($8,200) doesn't match the name for me, but he hasn't allowed a run in his last two outings, has three quality starts in his last five, and has dominated the Nationals across three starts, allowing four runs and 12 hits while striking out 21 in 18 innings.
None of the options from $5K to $6K figure to work enough innings to provide a return, so we're left looking at Arizona's Alex Young ($7,500) as the absolute cheapest option to consider. The Cardinals don't hit lefties terrifically, owning a .317 wOBA and below-average 96 wRC+, and Young has allowed only five runs in his last five starts.
Key Values/Chalk
With so few games, there aren't going to be a lot of contrarian options to go against the grain. Baltimore-Toronto looks like the likeliest game to target for offense, with a run total of 10.5 and a juicy pitching matchup for hitters with Clay Buchholz and Chandler Shepherd squaring off.
Buchholz just faced the Orioles in his last start and surrendered 10 hits and seven runs over just 3.2 innings. He's been marginally better at home but is still allowing a .364 wOBA to lefties and .377 wOBA to righties. Jonathan Villar ($3,500), Anthony Santander ($3,200) and Renato Nunez ($2,900) all fit in to most budgets.
Shepherd. meanwhile. doesn't have enough innings to provide splits to attack. Buying into the Blue Jays' lineup almost always starts with their youngsters, and with Bo Bichette ($3,900) questionable due to a concussion, we're left with Cavan Biggio ($3,800) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,200), the latter of which is riding a six-game hitting streak. Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000) is appealing too at a lower cost.
I expect some will target Mets bats against Caleb Smith, who is limping to the finish, allowing seven runs over his last two starts and five or more in three of his preceding four starts. Pete Alonso ($4,200), Todd Frazier ($2,900), Brandon Nimmo ($2,800), J.D. Davis ($2,600) and Wilson Ramos ($2,500) are all lineup regulars that have wOBAs of .370 or better against lefties. But targeting the Mets here is really on Smith's current form, as he's fared well against this lineup, fanning 14 over 11.0 innings while allowing four runs and seven hits.
Boston bats are always in play, especially J.D. Martinez ($4,000) when facing a lefty, but Tampa starter Blake Snell isn't expected to work deep into the contest, and there's been no mention of who will follow him, so attacking the southpaw isn't quite as obvious.
Stacks
Rays vs. Red Sox (RHP Jhoulys Chacin)
Austin Meadows (OF - $4,400), Brandon Lowe (2B - $2,900), Willy Adames (SS - $2,900)
Chacin falls into the same territory as his adversary in Snell, as he may not work too deep into the game. But with a 5.07 xFIP, he's worth targeting against even if he throws only a handful of innings. Meadows has been incredibly hot in September, owning a .513 wOBA, 232 wRC+ and .417 ISO. Lowe and Adames are less-traditional options here but rank second and third on the team behind Meadows with a .376 and .353 wOBA, respectively. They give us some different, low-owned, cheaply priced options at secondary positions.
Phillies at Nationals (LHP Patrick Corbin)
Bryce Harper (OF - $4,100), Rhys Hoskins (C/1B - $3,500), Jean Segura (SS - $2,800)
This is obviously for GPPs only, but there isn't a much more contrarian play available on this small slate than targeting bats against the top arm. Hoskins hits lefties well, owning a .421 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .292 ISO while having some success against Corbin in limited at bats. Harper owns a .397 wOBA and .302 ISO against lefties and has collected some hits against Corbin in the past. Segura is back from a hamstring injury, hits atop the lineup and has a .376 wOBA against lefties.
