This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's back to a full slate Tuesday night and weather may only be a problem for Boston-Kansas City. That means the options are endless with some high-end pitchers likely deciding a lot of games. There are still decent mid-range plays, but you'll likely need to spend on at least one arm to have success.
PITCHING
It's a good day to spend a little on pitching with the top options standing above the rest. Stephen Strasburg ($11,500) is as good as it gets because while he's giving up a run or two, he's usually good for a quality start and at least seven strikeouts with 35-point upside. The best part is that the White Sox have the highest K% (27.9) against righties in the last month with a .287 wOBA. Blake Snell ($11,000) is in the same mold because of matchup, as the Tigers have a 24.4 K% and .297 wOBA against southpaws since the beginning of May.
Chris Paddack ($10,000) doesn't have the consistency, but he's in a spot to succeed against the Phillies, who have a 24.1 K% and .295 wOBA against righty arms in the last month. Masahiro Tanaka ($9,300) will get similar consideration due to price, but his upside has been capped around 20-25 points in recent outings due to low strikeout numbers. Either way, the Blue Jays have the worst wOBA (.273) against righty hurlers over the last month. There are others like Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,300) and Frankie Montas ($10,400), who probably aren't worth the price due to matchup. The Diamondbacks are lighting up lefties and the Angels rarely strikeout.
Luis Castillo ($10,100) has a chance to get back on track against the Cardinals, though I'd be worried about their solid 21.7 K% against righty arms in the last month. I'd rather test my luck on Griffin Canning ($8,500) because while the A's are hitting well, he gave up one run in six innings in his last start against them. If you want the better matchup, Wade Miley ($8,200) is the play since the Mariners strike out a ton against lefty arms with a 27.5 K% in the last month.
Slightly cheaper, Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,000) and Chase Anderson ($7,200) are in good situations. Rodriguez has more upside, but Anderson could get more attention because he faces the Marlins. I'm not sure he's worth it considering he's yet to go more than five innings this season. It's tough sledding if you want to go cheaper, but Steven Brault ($6,400) is a possibility since he's only given up six hits in his last 11 innings and the Braves are below average in most categories against southpaws.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
Out of 15 games, two are set to have over/unders above 9.5 runs in Baltimore-Texas and Boston-Kansas City. I'll start with the biggest favorite, the Rangers, against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .364 wOBA and 2.78 HR/9 to righties, and 5.69 xFIP against lefties. Two of their biggest bats are injured, but Shin-Soo Choo ($5,100) has cranked his ISO to .306 against righty arms, while others like Danny Santana ($4,800) and Logan Forsythe ($4,200) are cheaper and get on base more often. I'd also consider Ronald Guzman ($3,800) and Delino DeShields Jr. ($3,800) because of price.
Rodriguez is a trickier situation because his early numbers have been horrible against lefties, yet he's allowing just a .299 wOBA to righties. I'd look at Alex Gordon ($4,300) and Nicky Lopez ($3,200), but wouldn't be comfortable with either. It's easier to spend more money on Boston's run of lefties against Glenn Sparkman, who has allowed a .354 OBP to 48 lefties faced. Andrew Benintendi ($4,700) and Brock Holt ($3,700) are in the best range if you don't want to spend an overwhelming amount.
Reynaldo Lopez has probably struggled more than any other pitcher on the slate giving up 19 hits and 13 runs in his last two starts and while the Nationals are struggling themselves, it's easier to trust the bats in this situation. He's worse against lefties, though has bad numbers against both sides of the plate and while you could spend on bigger bats, both Kurt Suzuki ($4,200) and Gerardo Parra ($4,100) have OBPs close to .400 in the past month against righty arms. It's similar pricing for the Rays against Ryan Carpenter, who has given up six homers in his four starts. Avisail Garcia ($5,100) would be a nice power play if healthy, while Willy Adames ($3,400) and Daniel Robertson ($3,100) provide nice value if the Rays get to Carpenter early.
Any Yankees righty is in play against Clayton Richard, who allowed a .345 wOBA to righty hitters last year. I'd also look at lefty Dodgers against Taylor Clarke, who has given up a .422 OBP to 45 faced. Cody Bellinger ($5,800) leads the way, but you can save a few on Alex Verdugo ($4,200).
STACKS
Padres vs. Jerad Eickhoff (Phillies)
(1B Eric Hosmer - $4,200), (OF Hunter Renfroe - $5,300), (2B Ian Kinsler - $3,400)
It's hard not to go against Eickhoff, who has allowed 17 runs and 10 homers in his last four starts. That's perfect territory for Renfroe, who has smoked righty hurlers with a .455 ISO in his last 71 plate appearances. Kinsler's price lets you roster Renfroe and I'd also throw lefty Josh Naylor ($3,700) into the mix if he gets another start. Eickhoff has allowed a .354 OBP to 67 lefties faced.
Brewers vs. Pablo Lopez (Marlins)
(OF Christian Yelich - $5,900), (OF Ryan Braun - $4,600), (2B/3B Hernan Perez - $4,100)
This is a play against Lopez, who has allowed a .381 wOBA on the road with that number at .414 against righty bats. Yelich is someone that can break the slate if he has another monster outing, which is more than possible. There are a few ways to save money with him and I chose Braun and Perez, who both provide decent power and ability to get on base. Orlando Arcia ($4,200) had his price bumped due to recent success and matchup, but Jesus Aguilar ($3,400) is still nice value.
Orioles vs. Drew Smyly (Rangers)
(2B/3B Hanser Alberto - $3,500), (1B Renato Nunez - $4,900), (C Pedro Severino - $3,800)
Smyly is another guy that's getting blasted every outing, allowing four homers in his last two to go with a 2.33 HR/9 allowed and 6.07 xFIP for the season. If you're into the Orioles, it's hard to not go both Nunez and Severino at their prices. Nunez has a .370 ISO and .356 OBP in his last 59 PA against lefties, while Severino is at .345 and .471 in his last 34. Alberto is more of a value play, as Trey Mancini ($5,000) remains Baltimore's best hitter.
