This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're back to a full calendar of games, which is nice after a light Monday slate. Four games are cut off from the main slate due to first pitch being slated for 6:40 p.m. EDT, but there is still plenty of ground to cover.
Pitching
Carlos Rodon ($10,100) has been lights out to begin the season, averaging 30.4 DK points per game. On Tuesday, he draws a matchup against Oakland and is a must start in all contest formats unless you are taking a completely contrarian approach.
Luis Severino ($9,200) is a nice large-field tournament target. He showed his upside in an April 14 start against Toronto when he delivered 24.3 DK points. Severino will take on Baltimore on Tuesday, a lineup that has struck out at a 26.7 percent clip – second-highest in the league. His price is aggressive, but that should keep his roster rate down. In that same tier, the Red Sox are getting too much respect for the second night in a row. Kevin Gausman ($8,700) is the sixth-highest priced pitcher and has struck out 17 across his last 13.2 innings to provide a nice floor.
There are also three lower-tier pitchers that pique my interest in Chris Paddack ($7,000), Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,300) and Marcus Stroman ($5,900). Of the trio, Stroman is my favorite target. He's run into some bad luck this season, highlighted by a 44.9 percent left-on-base rate. At his minimal cost, reaching double-digit DK points would be an acceptable – albeit not ideal – outcome.
Top Hitters
Jazz Chisholm ($5,300) has a lot going for him. He has finally been moved to the leadoff spot in Miami, and his skillset is conducive to racking up DK points. Chisholm has been aggressive on the basepaths early and also has a career seven percent walk rate. That puts less pressure on him to go yard to put up a big points total, but nine of his 13 hits this season have gone for extra bases so he has plenty of pop as well.
Even when taking into account the fact that he's given up only one home run this season across 10.1 innings, Jordan Lyles has surrendered 1.8 HR/9 since the beginning of the 2021 campaign. That makes a lot of the Yankees lineup strong plays on the slate, but Aaron Judge ($5,300) has the fifth-highest xWOBA in the league at .449.
Mookie Betts ($4,800) has dipped below the $5,000 price point for the first time this season. Zach Davies is hardly an imposing matchup, and Betts also has multiple paths to production as the leadoff hitter in Los Angeles.
Value Hitters
Jesus Sanchez ($3,600) has a .259 ISO this season and .226 for his career. He and the Marlins will square off against Josiah Gray, who has allowed a career 2.2 HR/9 and an 11 percent walk rate since the start of 2021. As an added bonus, Sanchez will be playing in Nationals Park, which is more conducive to power than LoanDepot Park.
Lourdes Gurriel ($3,300) has primarily hit fourth in Toronto's lineup in recent games. Given the quality of the top of the order, that alone is enough to consider him severely mispriced.
Robbie Grossman ($3,400) has yet to hit for any power this season (0.26 ISO) but he is the leadoff hitter in Detroit and has continued to show tremendous on-base skills. Despite his skills and role remaining largely the same, his price has dropped from $4,700 to $3,400 since Opening Day.
Stacks to Target
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Davies: Mookie Betts ($4,800), Freddie Freeman ($5,200), Trea Turner ($5,200), Max Muncy ($4,500)
The Dodgers can score on any pitcher given the quality of their lineup, but they will face one of the most favorable matchups possible in Davies. He checks every box possible, including allowing a high contact rate (17.1 K% since the start of 2021), lots of home runs (1.8 HR/9) and plenty of free passes (11.1 BB%). The only downside to the Dodgers is the price associated with them, so be prepared to pay down at pitcher to make this work.
Chicago White Sox vs. Daniel Lynch: Tim Anderson ($5,300), AJ Pollock ($3,900), Yasmani Grandal ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,700)
The White Sox have a beat up lineup without Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert (potentially) and Yoan Moncada. However, the top of their order is still very solid and capable of stringing together runs. With some lack of star power and Lynch performing well his last turn through the rotation, the White Sox could fly under the radar.
Miami Marlins vs. Josiah Gray: Jazz Chisholm ($5,300), Jesus Aguilar ($3,800), Jorge Soler ($4,100), Jesus Sanchez ($3,600)
Miami is the value stack of the day due to Gray's aforementioned high rate of surrendering walks and home runs. The Marlins offense has been pretty poor to start the season, but the matchup and a positive shift in park make them intriguing. On top of that, the savings would allow lineups to jam in two of the top pitchers on the slate.
