This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday's five-game main slate is a little light on value pitchers, but we can find at least one arm in a fantastic matchup to save money. On the offensive side, we have a pitcher who has been unable to find himself for the better part of a month facing an offense that most may not be looking at.
Pitching Overview
Sean Manaea ($10,400) has been fantastic in September after spending more than a year on the injured list due to a shoulder issue, logging a 1.14 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 23.2 innings. The Mariners are a fine target for righties but have actually performed quite well against left-handed pitching, as evidenced by the .188 ISO and 11 percent walk rate they have logged this year.
Zack Wheeler ($10,200) may not light up the stat sheet, but he has been a solidly consistent pitcher in 2019, tallying a 3.99 ERA with a 44 percent groundball rate in 187.1 innings. He has allowed just 20 home runs over that span. He will be a popular option on a short slate, as the Marlins hold the second-lowest wOBA in the league against right-handed pitching to go along with a 25 percent strikeout rate.
Time is running out for the other shoe to drop on Aaron Civale ($9,600), who carries a 1.82 ERA despite the 4.53 xFIP he has kept in 54.1 frames. The White Sox are generally thought of as a safe landing spot for righty pitchers, but prospective owners would be wise to be a bit wary, as they hold the sixth-highest wOBA in the league over the last calendar month.
Jose Quintana ($7,400) has the perfect matchup for his price Thursday, as he will take on a Pirates offense that holds the lowest wOBA in the league against southpaws (.286). Quintana doesn't have a blistering strikeout rate, but the veteran can still be relied upon to keep the ball in the park and limit walks.
Key Values
Dylan Cease has gotten his share of strikeouts in 2019, but sky-high walk and home run rates have resulted in a 5.79 ERA in 73 innings (14 starts). Meanwhile, Oscar Mercado ($4,900) has capped off the year with his best month of the season, logging a .267 ISO and a .384 wOBA in 86 September at-bats.
Matt Olson ($4,600) has shown tremendous power against right-handed pitching this season, logging a .293 ISO in 321 at-bats. Felix Hernandez has had an incredibly tough time with hitters from both sides of the platoon in 2019, but is a bit more vulnerable against lefties, as we can see from the .578 slugging percentage he has allowed in 26 frames.
Yuli Gurriel ($4,500) may not get much press in a stacked Astros lineup, but the 35-year-old has had a productive year against same-handed pitchers, logging a .247 ISO and a .381 wOBA in 401 at-bats. Jaime Barria has been hammered by righty hitters in 2019, allowing a dreadful .714 slugging percentage in 40.2 innings.
No one will ever confuse David Fletcher ($3,900) for a power hitter, but the 25-year-old has found a knack for getting on base in September, notching a .409 OBP in 84 at-bats. On the flip side, Wade Miley has had a historically bad month, allowing 18 earned runs in just 7.1 innings over four starts.
Stacks
A's against Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Matt Olson (1B - $4,600) Jurickson Profar (2B - $3,500) Matt Chapman (3B - $4,100)
It must be said that King Felix has thrown the ball much better at home this year, but even his starts at Safeco Field haven't been all that pretty, as he has allowed six homers and a .457 slugging percentage in 30 innings.
Angels against Wade Miley (Astros)
Albert Pujols (1B - $4,000) David Fletcher (3B/SS -$3,900) Andrelton Simmons (SS -$3,500)
The Angels aren't generally the first place most DFS players will look for a stack, but Miley has had such a tough time in September that it's worth seeing if he has recovered. If not, we potentially have a scarce stack here that won't break the bank.
