This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A murders row of pitchers kicks off the pricing on the seven-game main slate Thursday, which will force DFS players into some tough ownership decisions. Fortunately, we should be able to find enough value bats against bottom-end hurlers to balance out our lineups.
Pitching Overview
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,200) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first two months of the season, logging a 1.65 ERA with a 2.82 xFIP in 65.1 innings. My rule of never paying more than $11,000 for a hurler is a bit more relaxed on a shorter slate but it is worth noting that the Mets have made inroads against left-handed pitching this season, logging a .340 wOBA to go along with a .197 ISO
Chris Sale ($10,800) has been uncommonly great in May after a slow start to the year, striking out a jaw-dropping 44 percent of batters and logging a 2.59 xFIP in 32.1 frames. A DFS player's first instinct may be to have a bit of trepidation heading into a matchup against the Yankees but statistics tell us Sale should actually find some joy here, as the Bombers have notched a bottom-10 wOBA and a strikeout rate of 27 percent against southpaws this season.
Some may wonder whether Mike Minor ($10,300) can sustain his improbable run due to the 4.09 xFIP he has logged in 70.2 innings, but it must be noted that Minor currently owns the second most effective changeup in the league behind Ryu, which should allay fears that his current position is based on smoke and mirrors. The Royals are a bottom-3 team in the league according to wOBA and Minor hasn't had any issues pitching at home (2.08 ERA), making him worthy of a look.
We round out this foursome of powerhouses with Charlie Morton ($10,000), who has kept a 31 percent strikeout rate and a 54 percent groundball rate en route to a 2.54 ERA. While all of that is fantastic, Morton has had some real issues with the strike zone this year (11 percent walk rate) and the Twins hold the highest wOBA in the league against right-handed pitching. If you are deciding which elite pitcher to exclude on this jam-packed day, the matchup and Morton's trouble with command may be key factors.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,500) has given up homers at an alarming rate this year but has also notched a 29 percent strikeout rate in 58.2 innings. The White Sox hold a top- 5 strikeout rate and a bottom- 5 ISO against right-handers, which would seemingly make this a comfortable matchup for Carrasco, but prospective owners need to decide if he is worth more than a GPP play due to the other stud pitchers on the slate.
To that end, it will be tough to consider Martin Perez ($9,000) whose lack of command has led to a 4.38 xFIP. The matchup against the Rays lends itself to some big strikeout opportunities but we must also take into consideration that Tampa Bay holds a 10 percent walk rate against southpaws in 2019.
Looking for a low-cost option after splurging on one of the big four? Try Yusei Kikuchi ($6,800). Kikuchi doesn't do much aside from limit walks and get groundballs but that may be enough against the Angels, who hold a bottom-10 wOBA against left-handers this season.
Key Values
Many will likely be drawn to Josh Bell ($5,700) due to the monstrous .403 ISO he has tallied against right-handed pitching in 149 at-bats. Chase Anderson has thrown the ball well in general but holds a 4.80 xFIP against his opposite hand in 14 frames.
Joey Gallo ($5,600) is currently listed as day-to-day with a foot injury but he'll likely be fairly popular against Jakob Junis if he is ready to go, as Junis has allowed a .532 slugging percentage on the road.
J.D. Martinez ($5,200) may be seen as something close to a must-play at the top range against J.A. Happ. Happ has kept an ERA close to 6.00 at Yankee Stadium this year, while Martinez has tallied an absurd .500 ISO against lefty hurlers in 40 at-bats.
Joe Musgrove has taken it on the chin in May after a strong start to the season, logging an 8.25 ERA in 24 innings. Advanced metrics tell us that Musgrove hasn't been quite that bad (5.41 xFIP) but we can still look to someone like Mike Moustakas ($4,800), who has logged a .299 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Carlos Santana ($4,500) hasn't yet hit for power against left-handed pitching but carries a .380 wOBA against southpaws in 57 at-bats. Manny Banuelos has been smoked by both sides of the platoon this year, resulting in a 7.71 ERA in 35 innings.
Conversely, Justin Turner ($4,200) has brought the power (.215 ISO) against lefty hurlers while the wOBA has been lacking (.309). Jason Vargas has struggled against righties this season and a 5.89 xFIP indicates that he hasn't seen the worst of things yet.
Tyler Skaggs has been crushed on the road to the tune of a 6.56 ERA in 23.1 innings. Meanwhile, Mitch Haniger ($4,100) has tallied a .273 ISO and a .404 wOBA against southpaws in 44 at-bats.
Stacks
Indians against Manny Banuelos (White Sox)
Carlos Santana (C- $4,500) Jordan Luplow (OF $4,100) Jose Ramirez (3B -$3,900)
The Indians don't have the most intimidating offense but we simply must try to exploit Banuelos, who has allowed an on-base percentage north of .400 to both righty and lefty hitters. Luplow is head-and-shoulders above this group due to the .477 ISO he has logged against lefties in 44 at-bats.
Rangers against Jakob Junis (Royals)
Asdrubal Cabrera (3B - $4,000) Shin-Soo Choo (OF - $5,300) Ronald Guzman (1B - $4,000)
I've left Gallo out of this stack due to his uncertain status but we can find plenty of other bats to stack against Junis in a very friendly hitter's park. Guzman may fly under the radar, in particular, but he needs to be considered due to the .322 ISO he has notched against righty pitchers.
