This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is all about afternoon baseball. Only two of the 13 games taking place are in the evening, but only the first nine games on the slate are on the featured DFS docket for DraftKings. You'll have to be ready early, as the first pitch of the day is at 12:35 p.m. EDT. Time for my DFS recommendations!
Pitching
Justin Verlander, HOU at TEX ($10,100): So far, so good for Verlander is his return from injury. He's made three starts and posted a 1.89 ERA. The Rangers are in the top 10 of the league in runs scored so far, but they ranked 28th last season. I don't think two big bats is going to turn the offense around that much, so I expect them to drop down the rankings there.
Michael Kopech, CWS vs. KC ($9,600): Kopech and his big fastball are off to a hot start, and he has a 0.64 ERA through three games. He's also struck out 9.64 batters per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Royals are in the bottom five in runs scored.
Freddy Peralta, MIL at PIT ($7,700): After a couple bad starts, Peralta only allowed one run and struck out six in five innings in his last outing. His 3.74 FIP compared to his 7.50 ERA is a sign he's been unlucky, and last season he had a 3.11 FIP. Facing the Pirates is a great way to stay on track as a pitcher too, as they ranked last in runs scored in 2021.
Top Targets
Following up his MVP season in 2021, Bryce Harper ($6,100) has a .274/.329/.521 slash line. The walks haven't been there, but that's a quibble, especially for a DFS player. You might see the Rockies on the road and think that Antonio Senzatela will benefit from being away from Coors Field. However, Senzatela actually has a 5.07 road ERA since 2020.
It's business as usual for Aaron Judge ($5,700) to start the year. He's slugged .545, in line with his career .554 slugging percentage. Judge also is coming off a campaign where he hit 39 home runs. Bruce Zimmermann is off to a strong start to the season, but he came into the year with a career 5.30 ERA so consider me skeptical.
Bargain Bats
Andrew McCutchen ($3,600) has spent the last few seasons thrashing left-handed pitchers. He has a .993 OPS versus lefties since 2020. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana turns basically every righty into a batting champion. Since 2020, righties have hit .321 against the Pirates pitcher.
Quietly, Garrett Cooper ($3,300) has been an effective bat for the Marlins for a few years. Since 2019 he has a .283/.360/.458 slash line. He'll likely be facing Patrick Corbin, who has been the polar opposite of effective. Since 2019, Corbin has a 4.67 ERA, and this year his ERA has soared to 11.20.
Stacks to Consider
Padres at Tyler Mahle ($7,600): Manny Machado ($5,900), Jake Cronenworth ($4,700), Eric Hosmer ($3,800)
Mahle has a 6.88 ERA through four starts even though he hasn't even allowed a home run yet. He's allowed 1.37 homers per nine innings in his career, so that's not likely to continue. Mahle has a career 4.43 ERA, so mediocrity is to be expected, and his recent struggles makes this stack that much more enticing.
Machado is off to a stellar start to the season, slashing .366/.444/.577 with three homers and three stolen bases. That comes after he had 28 homers and 12 stolen bases in 2021. Cronenworth is off to a slow start, but his career slash line is .266/.343/.454 so I'm not concerned. That's especially true since he's a lefty and Mahle is a righty, and Cronenworth has an .842 OPS versus righties since 2020. Hosmer is off to a surprisingly-good start to 2022, as he's posted a .410/.463/.607 slash line. That obviously won't continue, but this is another case of a lefty getting to face a righty.
Mariners vs. Jeffrey Springs ($4,000): Ty France ($5,600), J.P. Crawford ($5,400), Adam Frazier ($5,100)
When I planned this stack, Corey Kluber was started Thursday. Then, his start got pushed to Friday, making this a bullpen game for the Rays. Even so, I am happy with this stack. There are matchups to be found in a bullpen game, and the Mariners have more potency in their lineup than in season's past.
France has hit .300 over the last three seasons, and he's starting to show some real power as well. This year he's slugged .620 and hit five home runs already. Crawford got to play his first full MLB season last year and hit .273 in the process. He's crushing it to start the season with a .349/.455/.587 slash line. Frazier is having a little trouble getting on base so far, but he's still getting to lead off for the Mariners. Last year he hit .305 with a .368 OBP, so I think he'll turn it around.
Astros vs. Martin Perez ($6,200): Alex Bregman ($5,100), Jeremy Pena ($4,800), Yuli Gurriel ($3,600)
Perez's 3.86 ERA flatters him a bit, as he just pitched six shutout innings on the road against the Athletics. In his career, he has a 4.70 ERA and 4.51 FIP. Also, the southpaw has allowed righties to his .283 against him. Naturally, I've picked three righties to stack for Thursday.
Bregman has never had an OPS lower than .777 in a season and in his last full season he had an 1.015 OPS. This year he's slashed .267/.384/.467. The rookie Pena has stepped in as shortstop for the Astros and he's slugged .475 with three home runs already. Gurriel is off to a slow start to the season, but he's a career .292 hitter. He'll be just fine. The 38-year-old also has a .927 OPS against lefties since 2020.
