This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The final Sunday of September has arrived. By this point, we know a lot about the MLB season. What we can't know, of course, is what will happen in the 10 MLB games on the primary slate of contests on DraftKings. I've looked at the stats and matchups and have brought you these DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA at KC ($9,800): Castillo has given the Mariners exactly what they expected. He posted a 2.86 ERA with the Reds and since arriving has managed a…2.83 ERA. The Royals are firmly positioned at 24th in runs scored, making this a nice opportunity for Castillo as his team pushes for the playoffs against a squad with nothing really left to play for.
Freddy Peralta, MIL at CIN ($8,700): The only concern with Peralta is his shoulder, which removed him from his last start after two innings. Otherwise, we're talking about a pitcher with a 3.06 FIP, in line with his career 3.30 mark. Peralta has also produced a 2.67 ERA on the road. The Reds enter with a .306 team OBP. If Peralta can go at least five frames, he should be all good from a DFS perspective.
Adrian Sampson, CHC at PIT ($6,600): Say what you will about the feasibility of Sampson keeping his run going, but he's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and hasn't allowed more than one run in any of those appearances. I don't know if he can maintain this pace, but I do know the Pirates sit bottom-four in both runs scored and team OPS.
Top Targets
Over the last three weeks, Willy Adames ($6,000) has registered an 1.004 OPS. He's also hit 31 home runs, and Cincinnati plays in a ballpark with a reputation for ceding a lot of long balls. Rookie Nick Lodolo has posted a 3.90 ERA and has allowed five homers across his last five starts.
It's been an all-or-nothing season for Kyle Schwarber ($5,100), but that's to be expected from him and it's yielded 40 homers. And since 2020, the southpaw has slugged .545 against righties. Charlie Morton has traditionally suppressed home runs, but in his age-38 season has struggled to a 5.38 road ERA in part because he's allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings in away from home.
Bargain Bats
The Marlins don't offer many notable bats, but Garrett Cooper ($3,300) has at least been designated to hit. He's also recorded a .921 OPS the last three weeks. Anibal Sanchez has dropped his ERA down to 4.40, but still maintains a 6.29 FIP and has given up 1.97 home runs per nine innings.
With the season a wash, the Nationals are letting vaunted prospect CJ Abrams ($2,000) get used to the bigs. His impact has been limited, but he's produced a .730 OPS the last 21 days and the lefty has been better against righties. Edward Cabrera has a 2.91 ERA on the year, but a 4.26 at home. And that number is undercut by his 4.78 FIP.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Orioles (Austin Voth): Yordan Alvarez ($6,300), Kyle Tucker ($5,100), Trey Mancini ($3,700)
Voth has decidedly looked better since leaving Washington for Baltimore. That being said, his ERA this season is at 4.32 and his career mark is 4.88 ERA. He's also allowed lefties to hit .284 against the last couple years, so I have two southpaws below.
While Alvarez has mashed against his fellow lefties, the 1.050 OPS versus righties is what stands out along with a 1.188 OPS the last three weeks. Tucker is on the verge of his second straight 30-homer season and has also racked up 23 steals and an .874 road OPS. No other lefties to sneak into this stack, so I'm going with Mancini. I almost went with Jeremy Pena, but he's likely not going to play Sunday after having to go through concussion protocol yesterday. He cleared, but why risk him? Anyway, Mancini has produced a .751 OPS versus righties and 18 home runs. There wasn't a great option on the Astros beyond the high-salary players.
White Sox vs. Tigers (Tyler Alexander): Eloy Jimenez ($5,300), Jose Abreu ($5,100), Andrew Vaughn ($4,400)
Alexander can't claim his 4.91 ERA is chalked up to bad luck since he also lists a 4.91 FIP. During his career, the lefty has allowed 1.51 home runs per nine innings. This season, Alexander has recorded a 6.14 road ERA and will be in Chicago on Sunday.
Jimenez has hit 15 home runs even though he's only played in 77 games. Seven of them have come in the last three weeks, where he's also managed a 1.043 OPS. This is a stack for people who like players who hit for average as both Jimenez and Abreu are over .300. And since 2020, Abreu has a .907 OPS versus lefties. In his two MLB seasons, Vaughn has definitely preferred to see southpaws on the mound with an .866 career OPS against.
Twins vs. Angels (Jose Suarez): Carlos Correa ($5,200), Jose Miranda ($3,500), Gio Urshela ($3,400)
With several key Twins injured and a lefty on the mound for the opposition, this is the only combination I could really offer up. That being said, it was well worth it to me. Over his last six starts, Suarez has posted a 4.24 ERA, and it would be worth if he hadn't gotten to host the Detroit Tigers during that time. He's also produced a career 4.83 FIP, so stacking these three righties seems like the right decision.
In his first year as a Twin, Correa has excelled with a .942 OPS against lefties and a .901 at home. And over the last 21 days, he's done ever better with a 1.098 OPS. Miranda has been cold, but he's slugged .521 versus lefties as a rookie to go with 23 doubles and 15 homers this season. Expect contact from Urshela facing a lefty at home as he's hit .285 against southpaws and .289 at home.
