This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Saturday's nine-game evening slate may be a tough one to navigate from a pitching perspective, as even the high-salary arms come with baggage. However, a soft matchup can help us find at least one viable value arm as we round out our lineup with reasonable bats.
Pitchers
Corbin Burnes ($10,600) didn't quite pitch up to his potential in his last matchup against the Cubs, but still managed to post 23.5 DraftKings points on the strength of 11 strikeouts over six innings. Those kinds of performances have become commonplace for him with a blistering 36 percent strikeout rate and a 1.99 ERA in 158 innings. Burnes will face a Mets offense that only registers a .308 wOBA against righties this year.
Lance Lynn ($9,200) has had a bit of trouble providing length of late, but it's difficult to ignore the 2.47 ERA and 28 percent strikeout rate from 146 frames. This is particularly true in a matchup against the Indians, who will carry a bottom-10 wOBA and 24 percent strikeout rate against righties. It's also worth noting Lynn's fastball rates as the ninth-most effective in the league among qualified pitchers (17.4 RAA).
Jaime Barria's ($5,800) inclusion as the least expensive pitcher on the slate is a bit confusing when we consider his 2.97 ERA across 30.1 home frames. While his advanced statistics don't exactly support that number, we can take the considerable savings in a matchup against the Mariners with their .299 wOBA and 25 percent strikeout rate against right-handers.
Top Hitters
Joey Votto ($5,800) has shown no signs of slowing down as we pull into the home stretch of the season, as evidenced by the .344 ISO in 61 at-bats this month. Erick Fedde has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard against both sides of the platoon, resulting in a 1.6 HR/9 rate from 127 frames. He's also struggled mightily in the second half of the campaign with a 5.63 ERA across 62.1 innings.
Eli Morgan's issues at home make him a prime target for DFS players. The 25-year-old has allowed a .620 slugging percentage in 39 innings at Progressive Field, which has contributed to an 8.31 ERA. Meanwhile, Yasmani Grandal ($4,800) has posted a .282 ISO in 195 at-bats against righties to make him an excellent find under $5,000.
It's hard to overstate how badly Vladimir Gutierrez has struggled during September. He's managed a 7.63 ERA from 15.1 frames while allowing a .629 slugging percentage. Juan Soto ($6,200) may be the most expensive hitter on the slate, but that salary will be well spent by those who roster him considering his .253 ISO and .460(!) wOBA over 282 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.
Value Bats
Austin Hays ($3,400) has excelled this month with a .356 ISO and .421 wOBA in 87 at-bats. Jordan Lyles has recently shown improvement, but the righty has given up a .528 slugging percentage on the road and that gives us the opportunity to roster a few value options from a Baltimore offense that boasts a few powerful bats.
The Angels has been ravaged by injuries this season, which allows us to dig through the alternates in order to find potential value plays. Jack Mayfield ($2,100) comes to mind due to a .217 ISO he across 83 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well this year overall, but has also allowed 22 homers in 121 innings to opposite-handed hitters.
DJ Peters ($2,500) isn't exactly a common name in DFS circles, but prospective poolies should take note of the .280 ISO from 125 at-bats against righties. Chris Ellis' 2.49 ERA is paper-thin, as advanced statistics tell us the 29-year-old has kept a 5.70 xFIP through 26.1 frames. He had his last turn in the rotation skipped due to arm fatigue, which gives us even more reason to try to find some Texas bats.
Stacks to Consider
Nationals against Vladimir Gutierrez: Juan Soto ($6,200), Ryan Zimmerman ($4,000), Luis Garcia ($3,700)
We covered Gutierrez's struggles in the previous section, but it may be worthwhile to mention he's put up more than 0.5 DraftKings points only once over his last four outings. Having Soto on our rosters will make construction more difficult, but we can soften the blow with a bat like Garcia and his .218 ISO in 87 September at-bats.
