This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's seven-game main slate doesn't leave us with a ton of options for value arms, but we should be able to insert some cheap bats into our stacks against pitchers who seem likely to blow up.
Pitching Overview
Stephen Strasburg's ($11,800) combination of strikeouts and grounders always makes him a potential high-scorer on DFS slates. While the Cardinals may not strike out as much as we might want, they have logged a bottom-10 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2019.
Jose Berrios ($10,200) has had something of an up-and-down season, which has resulted in solid, if not spectacular numbers across the board. The White Sox find themselves near the bottom of the pile in nearly every offensive category against right-handed pitching, including wOBA (.296) and ISO (.146).
Robbie Ray ($9,800) has built a reputation as a strikeout machine but hasn't quite been able to take the next step in his career due to unreasonably high walk and home run rates. The Marlins hold the lowest ISO (.139) and the second-lowest walk rate (six percent) against southpaws this year, making this a much safer spot than usual for a hurler like Ray.
Cole Hamels ($8,700) finds himself in a fantastic spot Monday. We've talked before about his dominance at Wrigley Field (2.66 ERA), and he will gain another advantage from his home ballpark, as the Reds have kept the sixth-lowest wOBA in the league on the road.
Zach Davies' ($6,100) price just keeps on falling. This could potentially make him a low-cost option against the Padres, who have logged a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate against righty pitchers. The issue here is that Davies has become something of a five-inning pitcher over the last month, making it imperative that he gets off to a fast start.
Key Values
Most Mets hitters will cost a fortune Monday, but Robinson Cano ($4,900) sneaks in here at a reasonable price despite notching a .333 ISO in 33 September at-bats. This makes him an intriguing option as he heads to Colorado to face Antonio Senzatela, who has allowed a .567 slugging percentage to lefty hitters in 47.2 frames.
Garrett Richards was once one of the most promising young pitchers in the league, but a spate of arm issues has left him looking to pick up the pieces. His rehab starts in the minors haven't exactly inspired confidence, as he has allowed 11 runs in nine innings across three different levels this year. Mike Moustakas ($4,800) recently returned from his own injury issues but appears to be back to his old self, as he has logged a .247 ISO in 23 at-bats this month.
Reynaldo Lopez is capable of throwing absolute gems when he is on, but we always need to be on the lookout for the blowup against elite offenses. This is particularly the case against lefty hitters, as Lopez has logged a 6.20 xFIP against them in 78 innings. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco ($4,600) has notched a .212 ISO and a .382 wOBA against righty pitchers this season.
Mark Canha ($4,400) has kept a reverse split in 2019, logging a .249 ISO and a .397 wOBA in 261 at-bats against right-handed pitching. This makes him someone to strongly consider against Glenn Sparkman, who has allowed a .483 slugging percentage to same-handed hitters in 60.1 innings.
I'm not entirely sure why Kyle Schwarber ($3,900) is so inexpensive, but prospective owners should take it and run due to the .285 ISO he has logged against right-handers. Kevin Gausman has exclusively been a bullpen pitcher since joining the Reds, and has allowed a .452 slugging percentage against opposite-handed batters in 42.1 innings overall this year.
Stacks
Jorge Polanco (SS- $4,600) Luis Arraez (2B/3B -$4,000) Eddie Rosario ($4,300)
Twins against Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)
Lopez can be a goldmine against the right offense, as evidenced by the fact that he has posted less than 10 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts. Fortunately, we can fit several big hitters into our lineups at reasonable prices.
Brewers against Garrett Richards (Padres)
Mike Moustakas (2B/3B - $4,800) Yasmani Grandal (C - $4,500) Ryan Braun (OF - $4,000)
We would want to test Richards after so much time away from the highest level regardless of where he was pitching, but the fact that his season debut will take place at a hitter's haven like Miller Park only adds to the allure of the stack. Don't be afraid to throw in some low-cost options here, as this has the potential to be an all-out shellacking.
