This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a short Monday card with only seven games. As we'll discuss, dominant pitching is the theme of the day, though there is also one standout value in particular. As a contest note, the slate tonight kicks off at 6:10 p.m. EDT, an hour earlier than usual.
Pitching
There are a number of elite starting pitchers on the slate, though the standout is Walker Buehler ($8,800) due to his matchup against the Diamondbacks. His skills haven't stood out through three starts, as he's struck out only 11 and walked five across 15 innings. However, he has a lengthy track record of success, so combined with facing a poor lineup and substantial savings from the other aces on the slate, I'm willing to take the chance.
Of course, each of Corbin Burnes ($10,200), Shane Bieber ($9,600) and Max Scherzer ($9,300) are also viable. Of that trio, my preference is to lean on Burnes and Scherezer, as each have shown superior skills to Bieber early on.
Jose Berrios ($5,500) is egregiously priced. He faces a difficult matchup against Boston, but he just put up 21.5 DK points against them his last time through the rotation. He'll be extremely popular, so it's not a terrible idea to fade him in large-field tournaments.
Kyle Gibson ($6,800) is a mediocre option priced between the extremes already presented. He draws a start at home against Colorado, and is a boom-bust option to pivot off Berrios and save cap space from the elites.
Top Hitters
The Phillies' lineup has yet to get fully on track, but they will have a strong opportunity to do so Monday against Kyle Freeland. Nick Castellanos ($5,400) is my player to single out thanks to his handedness advantage and prime spot in the batting order.
It's difficult to pick out star players on this slate due to the high number of quality pitchers. That said, Miles Mikolas regularly posts strikeout rates below 20 percent, leaving him as a viable pitcher to pick on. Pete Alonso ($5,200) isn't priced among the highest tier of hitters, but still has elite skills.
Yordan Alvarez ($5,500) will take on Dane Dunning, who has been surrendering walks and home runs at a concerning clip early in the season. While it's a very small sample, he hasn't done anything across his career to suggest that we should avoid targeting him.
Value Hitters
Both Hunter Renfroe ($3,400) and Andrew McCutchen's ($3,300) price have fallen steeply since opening day. Neither is off to a particularly booming start, but it's worth rostering them in a mediocre matchup against Sam Long.
Watch for the Astros' lineup, but if either Chas McCormick ($2,600) or Jose Siri ($2,800) lead off, they become very strong plays. Houston has rotated the leadoff spot of late with Jose Altuve out, starting with Jeremy Pena ($4,800). It's possible Pena returns to the role, but his price has risen far too much to be highlighted as a value.
Adolis Garcia ($3,400) has been inconsistent early this season, but his strikeout rate (26.6%) is mediocre and his BABIP (.216) has been at least a contributing cause to his results being poor. Even with that all said, Garcia is averaging 7.2 DK points on the season.
Josh Naylor ($2,500) has gotten off to a hot start since being activated from the injured list. He has a contact-heavy approach at the plate, so rostering him at this price point is a nice way to save.
Stacks to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kyle Freeland: Jean Segura ($4,700), Nick Castellanos ($5,300), J.T. Realmuto ($5,100), Rhys Hoskins ($5,100)
The Phillies square off against Freeland, who has a HR/9 of 1.3 and a strikeout rate of only 18.2% across the last three seasons (2022 included). Given that, I'm expecting a lot of hard contact. Freeland is a lefty, so Bryce Harper ($5,900) and Kyle Schwarber ($5,400) were both left off the example, but that isn't a necessity. Segura has occupied the leadoff spot, and he becomes far less appealing if he falls back down the order.
New York Mets vs. Miles Mikolas: Brandon Nimmo ($4,800), Starling Marte ($5,700), Francisco Lindor ($5,400), Pete Alonso ($5,200)
Like Freeland, Mikolas surrenders a lot of contact, as he has only an 18.3% strikeout rate since returning to the majors in 2018. He has had strong results this season in a small sample, but has had matchups against light-hitting teams such as the Marlins and Pirates. Because of that, his raw starts are inflated, so I'm interested in a Mets stack. It's also possible they are slightly less popular than the Phillies.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Sam Long: Andrew McCutchen ($3,330), Willy Adames ($4,500), Christian Yelich ($4,300), Hunter Renfroe ($3,400)
This is the value stack of the day. Long has better statistics and skills than either of Freeland or Mikolas, but he's still not an imposing pitcher. More importantly, the Milwaukee hitters are mispriced given that they will be facing a southpaw. The hitters listed above have served as the top four of the lineup when facing a lefty, which is a base that should allow a roster construction with two preferred ace pitchers rather than relying on some of the shaky value options.
