This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
All 30 teams are featured in Friday's main slate, and we're cautiously optimistic the weather is calming a bit.
Pitching Overview
Patrick Corbin ($11,200) leads a surprisingly thin pitching slate, at least price-wise. He's gone for 31 or more DraftKings points (DKP) in three of his last four, and while the matchup doesn't set up prominently against the Reds, there's not much to disapprove of either. Cincinnati fans only 20.2 percent of the time against lefties but has a meager 84 wRC+ and .150 ISO.
Chris Sale ($10,800) was rained out Thursday, but still gets the Yankees here. The price seems discounted based on the matchup, but the Yankees whiff a whopping 27.2 percent of the time against lefties, bringing a .295 wOBA, .139 ISO and 81 wRC+ to the table. Sale has been worth just 36.5 DKP combined in his last two outings, but went for 40-plus in two consecutive outings prior, and is 3-3 with a 1.93 ERA over his last eight starts against them, fanning 75 in 56.0 innings.
Kenta Maeda ($10,300) is the only other five-figure arm on the slate, and is an interesting case. He's not in great form, sprinkling in a 41.2 DKP and 27.7 DKP outing amidst four games of 14.3 points or less. Philadelphia travelled across the country following Thursday's loss and has only a .169 ISO and 94 wRC+ against righties. The matchup sets up well, but Maeda looks like a GPP pivot over the top two only.
There appears to be plenty of value in the next wave of pricing. Brad Peacock ($9,900) leads the way. He's been worth 26.5 DKP or more in three of four and gets an Athletics' side that has only a .312 wOBA against righties, though fans only 20.2 percent of the time. Jose Berrios ($9,300) is priced at a season-low, but the Rays rank seventh with a .340 wOBA against righties. German Marquez ($9,500) is a nonconventional GPP option pitching at home. He gets a woeful Blue Jays offense that fans 25.4 percent of the time while carrying only a .286 wOBA and 76 wRC+. He'll be low owned thanks to Coors Field. Lefty Caleb Smith ($9,700) faces a Padres' team team with a 26.9 strikeout rate, while his adversary, Joey Lucchesi ($8,800) gets a Marlins offense that ranks last against lefties with just a .261 wOBA and 63 wRC+.
Mike Foltynewicz ($8,500) is going to be very popular as a second arm. He has shown better velocity in his last two starts, averaging 21.3 DKP, and gets a Tigers offense that ranks last with a .280 wOBA, adding a .142 ISO and 26.2 strikeout rate. Finally, Danny Duffy ($7,200) is as low as I'd go here. He's been worth 14.5 DKP or more in three straight, including an earlier matchup against the Rangers, who fan 28.0 percent of the time against lefties. There's obviously some combustibility concerns, but the hope would be the Ks offset the damage.
Key Value/Chalk
Colorado, versus Edwin Jackson ($5,200), who has allowed 14 runs in 14.0 innings to date, couldn't be more chalky. He's allowing a .559 wOBA to righties, which makes Trevor Story ($5,800) and Nolan Arenado ($5,900) cash game anchors. Cheaper buy-ins to the Rockies include Brendan Rodgers ($4,500) and Chris Iannetta ($4,300).
Despite the moderate, at best, appeal I find in Duffy above, the Kansas City-Texas game comes with a robust 10.5 run total. Hunter Dozier ($5,300) and Alex Gordon ($5,100) present the best against righty Ariel Jurado ($4,900), while Logan Forsythe ($4,200) is a nice pivot to the usual suspects in the Rangers lineup while offering some position flexibility.
Milwaukee-Pittsburgh looks like another game to target, having a run total of 9.5 with struggling starters Jhoulys Chacin ($5,300) and Chris Archer ($7,400) squaring off. Josh Bell ($5,700) can be an anchor, though Chacin has struggled more against same-handed bats to date, allowing a .393 wOBA to righties on the road. Starling Marte ($4,700, .201 ISO) makes for a reasonable pivot. Archer has been awful in his last five starts, allowed 22 runs across 22.2 innings, and similarly to Chacin, has struggled against same-handed bats. While most may target Christian Yelich ($5,900), Lorenzo Cain ($3,900) looks like a better value option if he's hitting in the top third of the lineup. BvP guys will love his 9-of-18 history against Archer. The Brewers are certainly stackable where affordable.
Only Minnesota-Tampa, Oakland-Houston, Washington-Cincinnati, Philadelphia-Los Angeles, and Miami-San Diego have run totals under nine, so there aren't a lot of games to obviously stay away from. A sneaky game to target could be Baltimore-San Francisco. Giants' starter Drew Pomeranz ($6,000) has allowed 17 runs and 22 hits in his last four appearances, spanning just 13.0 innings, and is allowing a .418 wOBA and 1.001 OPS to righties. Some savings can be found in Keon Broxton ($3,800), Hanser Alberto ($3,900) and/or Pedro Severino ($3,600). A resurgent Pablo Sandoval ($4,400) and usual suspect Brandon Belt ($4,100) are options on the other side facing Andrew Cashner ($6,600), who has allowed a homer in five straight starts.
Stacks
Nationals vs. Tyler Mahle (Reds)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $5,800), Howie Kendrick (1B/3B - $5,600), Juan Soto (OF - $5,600)
Highly cost prohibitive, and highly chalky, but if you can find two pitchers with whom you're comfortable, building around this stack looks lucrative. The Nats are hot as a squad suddenly, so don't be afraid to move one piece out for a cheaper option. But in order, these three have respective wOBAs of .426, .384 and .380, while all carrying ISOs of .212 or better. Kendrick has nine hits and eight RBI in his last four games, bringing a hot element to the table, while Mahle has allowed five homers over his last 17.1 frames and is surrendering a .376 wOBA to lefties, boosting Soto's appeal.
Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $5,500), Willson Contreras (C - $4,500), Kyle Schwarber (OF - $3,900)
Rizzo looks like a must-own guy Friday. He's in great form, has a .441 wOBA and .338 ISO against righties and faces a pitcher in Mikolas who is allowing a .401 wOBA to lefties. That latter number is what put Schwarber on radars as his swing and miss tendencies usually have him overlooked. Javier Baez ($4,600) and David Bote ($4,100) are also options, but Contreras gets my nod here if you're willing to pay up at catcher. He's sporting a .416 wOBA and .276 ISO against same-handed pitching.
Indians vs. Dylan Covey (White Sox)
Francisco Lindor (SS - $5,200), Carlos Santana (1B - $5,200), Oscar Mercado (OF - $4,300)
I'll give credit to DK, as their pricing clearly reflects the matchup/opportunity presented. The top three bats price-wise also represent the top three options for the Indians in wOBA, with Lindor's .374 wOBA being the lowest, as is his 132 wRC+. Mercado has a limited sample size, but with three multihit games in his last four, it looks like pitchers haven't got the scouting report on him yet. Covey has allowed a homer in four straight and four runs or more in three of his lasts four starts, only once lasting six innings.
