This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're one week into the MLB season! Thursday, though, was already planned to be limited in terms of action, and we've already lost a couple games to postponement as well. There is always that element in following a sport that fears inclement weather more than any other. We press on though, and we still play MLB DFS and hope for the best. Only six games are included in the DraftKings slate Thursday, starting at 1:10 p.m. ET. Onto the recommendations!
Pitching
Kevin Gausman, TOR at KC ($9,000): Gausman turned his career around with San Francisco, and then arguably kicked it up a notch last year, his first with the Blue Jays. His 3.35 ERA was good, but his 2.37 FIP was stellar. The Royals finished 24th in runs scored last year, didn't really upgrade the roster, and haven't exactly come out of the gate hot in 2023.
Tylor Megill, NYM ($7,800): Yes, Megill had a 5.13 ERA in 2022, but a 3.76 FIP. In his first start this year he allowed two runs and struck out seven in five innings. Sure, it was against the Marlins, who finished 28th in runs scored last year, but wouldn't you know it, he's getting to face the Marlins again Thursday. If he replicates what he did in his first start, and gets a win, he'll worth out for DFS purposes.
Top Target
Aaron Judge's campaign overshadowed what Kyle Schwarber ($5,500) did, but he led the National League with 46 home runs. The lefty feasted on right-handed pitchers, and since 2021 he has a .930 OPS versus righties. Hunter Greene has a massive fastball. He strikes out a ton of batters. He also has allowed 1.74 home runs per nine innings in his career, so Schwarber has a fantastic opportunity against the right hander.
Bargain Bat
What could get me to recommend a Nationals player, in this case Victor Robles ($2,200)? How about a trip to Coors Field? Robles hasn't shown homer power in his career, but his speed led to 18 doubles, two triples, and 15 stolen bases last year. Coors also plays well for doubles hitters. Kyle Freeland's home/road splits were extreme even for a Rockie last year, as he had a 3.08 ERA on the road but a 6.00 ERA at home.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays at Royals (Jordan Lyles): Bo Bichette ($5,200), Daulton Varsho ($3,900), Alejandro Kirk ($3,700)
Lyles is on his seventh MLB team. Why? Well, the fact he has a career 5.09 ERA probably speaks to that. He's below average at striking out batters and allowing home runs. Since 2021 lefties have hit .265 against him and righties have hit .285 against him. Stacking against Lyles has been a smart move for years, and when you have a lineup like the Blue Jays do, stacks is even smarter.
It's nice to see Bichette off to a strong start after he began 2022 cool and had to rebound, though he still finished with 24 homers and 13 stolen bases. In his career, he's slashed .298/.341/.492 and he's still only 25, so my faith is high in Dante's kid. Varsho is more of a counting-stats guy, posting a low OBP but managing 27 homers and 16 stolen bases. The lefty had an .801 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2022, so this matchup plays into his strengths. We shall see how Kirk hits primarily playing catcher, but he hit .285 with a .372 OBP in 2022. He also hit 14 home runs, which is plenty of power from the catching position.
Rockies vs. Nationals (Josiah Gray): C.J. Cron ($5,800), Kris Bryant ($5,100), Ryan McMahon ($4,200)
Gray simply can't stop allowing home runs. He has a career 5.99 FIP, and you can point at the fact he's allowed a staggering 2.41 home runs per nine innings. Now he has to try and pitch at Coors? Yeah, I don't see that going well for him.
Cron has taken to Coors Field as much as any hitter I can recall. Since joining the Rockies he has an 1.010 OPS at home, but he also already has three homers this season in spite of not playing a home game yet. Bryant's first season with Colorado was lost to injury, but quietly he still slashed .306/.376/.475. With his career .502 slugging percentage, I'd like to see what the one-time MVP can do in a healthy campaign at Coors. McMahon doesn't have quite as much power, but he has an .829 OPS at home since 2021. The southpaw also manages nicely against righties, managing an .806 OPS in those matchups in the same time frame.
