This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, June 21
YTD 100-98-1
Prior article (2-1 +0.45 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to
hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity
are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it
comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each
bet)
1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team
Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Baltimore Orioles 
at Houston Astros 
The Orioles are the top offense in baseball, and average 5.3 runs per game on the road. They lead baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road (154).
They are facing Jake Bloss in his MLB debut. Normally, I have learned to stay away from starting-pitching debuts, but Bloss has not pitched above Double-A. The Orioles are also 8-2 in their last 10 road games for the OVER on their team total.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Astros
Orioles OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings -125)
Boston Red Sox 
at Cincinnati Reds 
I have been going against the Red Sox versus left-handed pitching, but they are hot the last month with a 149 wRC+ (road). They are 8-2 in their last 10, which were against the Yankees, Phillies and sweeping the Blue Jays.
Kutter Crawford started off strong and then hit a bad stretchm, but it was against the Braves, Brewers and Orioles. His last two starts have been solid with 17 strikeouts, two walks, and five earned runs allowed.
Andrew Abbott has been decent on the season with a 3.51 ERA in his last seven starts, but the 25:14 K:BB ratio is disturbing and will cost him against a hot Red Sox lineup.
MLB Picks for Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds
Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -108)
Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The Phillies are 25-5 straight up at home in their last 30 games, but they have been struggling lately (4-6 last 10). But this team has been so good at home and they get Jordan Montgomery, who has a 6.88 ERA in his last seven starts. He has pitched better in his last two starts, but the numbers for Philly at home are just too strong to ignore. I am not a fan of Taijuan Walker on the other side against the Diamondbacks, who are 7-3 in their last 10.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Phillies
Phillies ML for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Orioles OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings -125)
Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -108)
Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
Phillies ML for 1.35 unit (DraftKings -135)
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