This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: MLB Awards and Stat Leaders 2025
Family, as you know I've been all systems go on the college baseball side for quite some time. And while I do love me some College Baseball, MLB is where my roots stem. So, I decided to shift focus for a moment and hand-deliver to you my best preseason bets for the 2025 awards markets.
If you read my preseason MLB article last year on the awards, then you may remember I was conflicted about some of the markets, largely because half the fields were upside down on unbettable numbers, but this year, that's not the case. As always, it's good to take a position on a player/team with a path at a forgiving number to build the portfolio with, but keep in mind to stay sharp during the season so you can dive back in.
Without further ado...
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AL MVP
Wyatt Langford +5000 (FD)
By now you should all now I'm president of the Wyatt Langford fan club as he's a big day one incubator guy of mine. I will also die on the hill that I'm the first person in the media to say he's the next Mike Trout. FanDuel opened a comically ludicrous 200/1 price on him in December. I can only surmise they were asleep at the wheel with the NFL playoffs going on (you remember the preseason 300/1 I gave out on him last year). Obviously, that got bet down aggressively, and when I was about to take a piece, it got cut. Nevertheless, I took him at 125/1 on BetMGM around the same time. Because I'm writing it up way later than that, I have to give it at the current number, but 50/1 is still good.
Langford was rough in stretches last season as a rookie, which isn't unbelievable considering he went straight from Florida to the pros, a rare feat for anybody. But when he looked like he turned the corner in June, it was mesmerizing at every turn. Though a lot of the second half was a slump for him, his "ah-ha" moment began in September when he hit .300 with eight homers, 20 RBI's, took seven bags, and a .996 OPS.
I believe that hot finish - after fine-tuning some mechanics - is what propels him to the next level as a sophomore. While the field has two incredible favorites in Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr, the number is too long on a player who should take an incredible leap in 2025. I believe Langford can finish in the neighborhood of 30+ homers, 30+ steals, 40 doubles, 10 triples with an average of .300 or better and an OPS of 1.000 or higher, not to mention his budding gloves in left field. Some day soon, he's going to show people why he was drafted so high and called up as early as he was.
The rest of the field has interesting candidates, but at the current numbers I feel it's better to wait and dip in during the season. Both Judge and Witt Jr. are too short at the moment to take a position on.
NL MVP
Elly De La Cruz +2000 (FD)
Eleanor Roosevelt De La Cruz, as I call him, is an interesting choice for me this year. In my heart of hearts, I know he's not likely to win. It's not just because he struck out at an insanely high 31.3% rate (212 K's) last season. Or because his batting average (.259) is lower than what it takes to be an NFL linebacker. Or because his 29 errors last season may repeat this year in the same vicinity. It's because when Shohei Ohtani even breathes, it's Page 1, and that's hard to compete with from anybody.
However, at the best available number in the marketplace, it's too much of a good price for a guy who could reasonably be in the 35+ homer/70+ steal range in 2025. EDLC was extremely raw when he came up a couple of years ago - still is - but he's improved a lot in his short time.
It would be surprising if he didn't continue to iron out the flaws in his game to become a more well-rounded ballplayer. Clearly an athletic freak that jumps off the charts with every single advanced metric has as high a ceiling as anyone. I believe in the Reds this season and if they are going to make waves, Elly will have to play a big part in that. There's a lot deeper of a field in the NL (even excluding Ohtani), but look at the board and tell me who has a higher upside than Cincy's cornerstone. The only comparable player is Ronald Acuna, who will miss the first month or so.
Corbin Carroll +4000 (FD)
Carroll has become one of the better players in the game over the last couple of seasons. I don't think he gets quite the due or praise as he should because he plays for Arizona, but I also wouldn't put him in the "superstar" status just yet. His 2023 ROY campaign was magnificent (25 HR/54 SB), while his "down year" in 2024 was still pretty good (22 HR/35 SB). It was still a letdown last season, but based on everything I've read and his strong spring training, it seems like 2025 will be a monster third campaign for the Diamondback.
Of all the legitimate NL MVP contenders, Carroll joins the ranks of the few who are true five-tool players. He's going to stuff the stat sheets with every meaningful offensive category, in addition to playing great defense. I like Arizona a lot this year and with Carroll being a huge contributor on a rebound season, he can realistically be a 30/50 guy that racks up 120+ runs, 30+ doubles, 10+ triples, and 75+ RBI's. The big question is whether he can bump up the average a little bit. His .231 was brutal last season, though his .285 in 2023 was solid. I understand a lot of nerds have deemed batting average a "useless stat" which is preposterous. But a lot of the other advanced metrics will help his case like they have in the past.
There are only three spots where 40/1 is provided -- FanDuel, BetMGM and BetRivers -- which is a huge misprice in my opinion. Some shops have in the 20/1 range (give or take), where it's much more appropriate. This is definitely a bet to take before Opening Day.
The BetRivers bonus code gets new players a second-chance bet worth up to $500.
AL Cy Young
Cole Ragans +1000 (DK)
Swole Cole is somebody I said I had as a dark horse (when he was a longer shot) before he got smashed down to 14/1 and became a favorite. By now, there's no more mystery to Ragans. He's a bonafide stud ace.
While I usually try to refrain from taking obvious shorter favorites this early, 10/1 is a decent number on a great pitcher that you can't deny has a realistic chance. A lot of the media and market is clamoring over Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet (understandably so), but the Ragans train hasn't gotten as much hype.
The Royals ace quietly had an awesome 2024 campaign. His 3.14 ERA (8th in AL) and 223 K's (2nd in AL) would have made a strong case for him in the award in most years, but Skubal was just too dominant. The lefty has been a different pitcher since he arrived in KC, and in his second full season with the team, I think it's reasonable to believe he can replicate if not surpass a great 2024 year. His advanced metrics are still among the best in the MLB, especially in whiff and chase rates.
And of course, he pitches in what I still consider a very weak division. I know people will argue that the AL Central sent three teams to the playoffs last season, but I wasn't that impressed by any one of them. It's a division he should be able to carve up and juice those numbers to throughout the season.
It's very likely Skubal regresses this season; even winning consecutive awards is challenging enough. Crochet has a lot of hype as he has vicious stuff as a lefty, but his health concerns along with moving to Monstars level of competition in the AL East and having shown no proof of being able to handle a full season-long workload, leave room for others to slide in. 10/1 is still a price I would consider a bit too long.
Cy Young longshots to consider
Hunter Brown (+2500)
Joe Ryan (+4500)
NL Cy Young
Spencer Schwellenbach +3500 (DK)
Based on what I've seen, the NL field looks a lot deeper than the AL one. But perhaps the best bang for your buck is Schwellenbach at 35/1 on DK (best available number). Of course, it's difficult to jump from making 21 starts as a rookie to winning Cy Young, though that's what Paul Skenes is attempting to do as well.
Though he was only called up at the end of May, the kid did nothing but impress. A 3.35 ERA and 127 K/23 BB ratio in 123.2 innings in arguably the hardest division in baseball is remarkable. The elite command and control is a rarity for a young pitcher, but it allows Schwellenbach to dictate opposing batters. I suppose a full season workload and jumping from 123.2 innings to the 160 range could have an affect, but at this number it's worth the risk.
His vastly effective six-pitch arsenal provides a lot of diverse ways for him to get hitters out two or three times through a lineup. There certainly is some risk with him, but the price offsets it a bit.
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AL Rookie of the Year
I have mentioned it several times over the last couple of months. The 2025 rookie classes are the deepest in at least a decade. Tons of star power at every odds tier changes the narrative on how to bet it. Therefore, this of all seasons is where you can take some longer shots. Some of these longshots I really like may not get an immediate call up, so you can wait on them until their promotion is near.
Cam Smith +900 (Caesars)
Let's be real with ourselves; me giving Smith out at this number is a formality. I really gave him at 150/1 on March 4th after "nuking" my $30 dollar limit on Caesars. Also hit him again at 40/1, but enough about me.
I expressed my opinion pretty loudly on how I thought the Cubs fumbled the bag on the Kyle Tucker trade in giving Smith away for a likely one-year rental. But I saw an opportunity with a Houston offense in the process of retooling. Knowing Cam's prowess very well from the last two seasons at Florida State allowed me an insight most don't have.
His massive jump from '23 to '24 not only put him in the first round, but it signified what kind of upward trajectory he was on, with a lot more room to continue growing. Coupled with the fact that his minor league and early spring training numbers were enough to peak even the most remote possibility of an early call-up, it made it worth a taste.
Smith can flat-out rake, which will give him a high-floor, high-ceiling profile for average and power. When I started writing this article last night, he was 20/1, but got crushed down into the triple-digit numbers since he got the official call up. The truth is if you didn't take it when he was 30/1, or even 20/1 you missed the boat big time.
Though some rookie struggles are likely, it's hard to deny his impressive spring training numbers (.342 average, 4 homers, 1.130 OPS). At this point the best approach is to wait and see.
AL Rookie of the Year Longshots
Christian Moore +3000 (ESPN)
Incredible development at Tennessee catapulted the College World Series hero into last summer's first round. Ultimately I thought there was a real case he should have been taken ahead of Travis Bazzana. Offensively, he's one of the more dangerous rookies in this class. And the fact that he's on an Angels team that is aggressive with their prospects, Moore is probably going to get a lot of at bats this season. I don't think his call up is too far off, so it's worth it to get in on him now.
Jac Caglianone +4500 (DK)
Those of you who read my MLB Draft article in July will know this was the guy I felt should have been the top pick. What's even crazier is that he fell out of the top five, which is something that will haunt those teams that passed up on him for a long time. Cags is a freak with probably the most raw power of any rookie. But his well-improved contact rate and hitting ability from 2023 to 2024 has made him even more dangerous.
Like I felt with Skenes last year, the same thing goes for the Italian prince of Tampa in that it won't be long before he gets his chance in KC. I think, realistically, it would be shocking if he doesn't get the nod by mid-May. Even missing 30-45 games, his abilities are so outrageous that he may still belt 20+ taters and 60+ RBI's. Make sure you take a piece on Jac by Cags sooner than later.
Jacob Wilson +1300 (BetRivers)
Not the sexiest name of the class, but this dude can play. I got an extensive look at him in his last couple of years at Grand Canyon, and the thing that stood out is his Gold Glove level defense and incredible strike zone recognition. In three years at GCU, he only struck out 31 times in 155 games (697 plate appearances).
After getting his feet wet with the A's for 28 games last season, he should be ready to take a big jump this year as a high average, high on base guy. The power won't likely be anything special, so I wouldn't expect more than 15 homers (optimistic) at the absolute most. He's definitely somebody I would buy now due to his incredibly high floor.
NL Rookie of the Year
The NL field has two stars I watched extensively in college in Dylan Crews and Matt Shaw. While both are more than capable of winning, it's too deep of a class to be taking preseason swings on candidates 5/1 or less. That's why we're going down the board.
Quinn Mathews +3000 (FD)
The NL has a lot more elite pitching rookies than the AL, allowing a better chance for an arm to win again in this conference. I remember being in absolute shock that Quinn fell to the fourth round in the 2023 draft out of Stanford. Coming into the draft, I felt he was a first rounder and nothing later than a mid second, so when the Cardinals got him at that spot I believed it was maybe the steal of the draft.
Mathews is another big-time college guy for me who was an absolute horse. His lanky 6'5" lefty frame helped him create so much deception against hitters that he was a nightmare to face. The stuff isn't the best, but it's still really good. A low to mid-90s heater with a Chris Sale type of slider generates so much swing and miss that he motored all the way to AAA ball in one season.
With a lot of question marks in the St. Louis rotation, it won't be long before Quinn is ripping on a big league mound. What makes him even more dangerous is the amount of experience he has, especially as an older prospect at 24. The four-year Stanford prospect only threw six innings in spring training, but was dominant as usual (six shutty, nine k's). I actually spoke about him on March 3rd on a podcast at 50/1, but was bet down aggressively. He'll likely be getting an early call up.
Chase Dollander +6000 (Caesars)
Dolly is my true day-one incubator guy. I was enamored by Dollander when I first saw him pitch at Tennessee in 2022. I thought to myself, this kid is going to be very special. Most won't know this, but Paul Skenes is everything he was supposed to be. Coming into the 2023 season, Dolly was the top pitching prospect in the class with a great chance to go 1.1 to the Pirates. Unfortunately, some mechanical issues and command breakdowns caused a regression and he lost the aura as "the guy" for that season. Obviously, Skenes's outrageous season helped with that.
I still believe he is the guy and is the most talented arm in the minor leagues. Pitching in Coors will hurt his numbers, but he is going to take Colorado pitching into the 21st century as the first true ace they've had in two decades. No doubt in my mind whatsoever. His spring training was a big mixed bag filled with either great starts or disasters, though some of the bad was misleading.
It's an elite four to five pitch mix anchored by a ferocious 96-99 MPH heater that generates a lot of whiffs. As a strikeout pitcher (169 K's in 118 innings in MILB), he'll be able to navigate the troubles most pitchers have had in Colorado. Though he was reassigned to the minors to begin the season, I know in my bones he is going to be up soon enough. I grabbed him at 150/1 a couple months ago, but this number is plenty appetizing.
NL Rookie of the Year Longshots
Chase Burns +5000 (FanDuel)
Two summers ago, I said after Wake Forest polished him up, he will have the higher MLB ceiling than Paul Skenes. And I believe that. His fastball tops out at 102 MPH and his ultra-demonic slider is the second-best in all of baseball behind Dylan Cease. The timeline is murky since he has barely been pitching in spring training or the minors and Cincy's rotation is somewhat stocked at the moment.
Make no mistake, though, the kid is going to be a menace that made you question saying we won't see another Skenes type for another decade. I get a tad worried that his chance may not come until June, but with how good he is he could move through the farm extremely quick. I would definitely keep a close eye on him. If he starts ripping it up in AA ball after about four or five starts and it's still late April, you should just buy while the books are sleeping.
MLB Stat Leaders
Cole Ragans to lead MLB in Strikeouts +2500 (DK)
I talked about Swole Cole quite a bit on the Cy Young bit, but K's will be the biggest part of his game this season. In order to have a realistic chance at nabbing this, you need to be in the 250+ range. Last year, Skubal's league-leading 228 punchies was an outlier and the lowest since a winner had since 1994 Randy Johnson's 204 (excluding 2020 COVID season). Only four times has a winner had less than 250 since 2008.
While innings are certainly a big part of this, it's the efficiency of K/9 that often propels this race. Skubal's 10.7 K/9 was the lowest a winner had since 2014 David Price's 9.8 K/9. At a minimum, having an 11.0 or better is almost a necessity.
Ragans' 223 K's were fifth best in the majors a season ago to go along with his 12th most innings (186.1). The 10.8 K/9 was also the third-best. Having improved tremendously since his move over to KC, it's not ridiculous to think he can have an even better year in 2025. His advanced metrics in chase and whiff rate tell us a lot for his future outlook. And playing in the AL Central should certainly help too.
If Ragans can push the innings closer to 200 and get the K/9 up in to the 11-11.5 range, there will definitely be a strong chance for him to be in the conversation. And if the walks and efficiency is cleaned up, then I really love his odds. But really 25/1 is way too big of a number for a guy with this much potential.
Jarren Duran to lead MLB in Runs Scored +4000 (DK)
Runs scored is an intriguing market filled with a lot of variance. The leader hasn't finished below 120 runs since 2014 Mike Trout's 115 (2020 excluded), so the ballpark starts there. You pretty much need a candidate who has 120-140 potential, which often results in a top-of-the-lineup speedster winning... or just an absolute slugger that's belting 40+ bombs.
This is a wide-open race with plenty of viable options, but at 40/1, I don't understand why Duran is so far down this list. In his breakout year, he amassed 111 plate touches on a Red Sox offense that was good, but figures to be potentially top three this season with a ton of new additions. His incredible speed gives him the ability to score from first on a ball hit in the gap, while his strong on-base prowess will increase his chances (.342 in 2024). Not to mention the fact that his leadoff spot in the order gooses his opportunities.
Players like Corbin Carroll, Elly, and Lindor are good bets that figure to be in the conversation, but somebody like Duran should be about half of where he currently sits.
Home Run Leaders
In this age of baseball with Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, you need somebody who has a chance at 50 jacks. In a down year, 45 may be enough. There has not been a leader with less than 47 bombs since 2014 Nelson Cruz (40).
Shohei Ohtani +650 (DK)
While Ohtani is a threat every year, you would think he's not bettable with a low price, so imagine my surprise when I saw +650 show up on DK. This is pretty self-explanatory. Though 2024 was his first 50-homer season, the move to the Dodgers unlocked an even higher ceiling of production for the superstar. With LAD slated to be just as good as last season, it's reasonable to see it happen again. But the number is long, so it's worth it.
Brent Rooker +2000 (Caesars)
An interesting dark horse resides out in formerly Oakland - now Sacramento. Rooker has blossomed into a star before our very eyes these last couple of seasons. Coming off a 39 bomb season and a fresh extension, we may see a big encore in 2025.
I think the A's are a sneaky team this season with a pretty solid lineup in their "new park" out in Sacramento's Sutter Health Park. The dimensions are a bit similar to the Coliseum, though right field is a bit more friendly. Regardless, he could see an uptick in power with his improved approach at the plate.
He's among the top of the board in most advanced metrics with barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. He could stand to clean up the chase and whiff rates, so if he does do that I think approaching a 50-homer season is in the cards.
20/1 is a solid number here for a premier power bat.
I will be updating my futures throughout the season, so stay tuned. Next up will be team futures.
