This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Fourth-round play at the U.S. Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. It's likely to be a mixed bag for the five Americans in action, while top-eight men's seeds will be looking to stem the tide after the recent surprise exits of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Casper Ruud (+235) vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz's game is better suited for fast surfaces, but these two are much closer to each other in hard-court proficiency than these odds suggest. Ruud reached the final of the U.S. Open in 2022, while Fritz hasn't been to a Grand Slam semifinal. The Norwegian also has a superior 22-6 hard-court record in 2024 compared to Fritz's 16-7 mark, and Ruud has won both of their previous encounters. Fritz is a much bigger server, but Ruud's forehand will be the top weapon on the court.
Yafan Wang (+330) vs. Paula Badosa
Wang has already taken out a pair of big names in this tournament, beating Maria Sakkari and Victoria Azarenka. Badosa was on a roll heading into the U.S. Open, but the Spaniard needed a third-set tiebreak to overcome an upset bid from 122nd-ranked Elena Gabriela Ruse in the third round. Despite the 29th-ranked Badosa having a 51-spot edge in the rankings, Wang has looked more impressive here en route to the Round of 16. Their only previous meeting came on hard court five years ago, and Wang cruised to victory in that one.
Honorable Mention
Donna Vekic (+185) vs. Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Alexander Zverev (-350) vs. Brandon Nakashima
Nakashima's enjoying a strong stretch and is into his second career Round of 16 at a Grand Slam, but the fourth-ranked Zverev has earned his 46-spot edge in the rankings with a 55-16 record in 2024, including a semifinal showing at the Australian Open and final at the French Open. Nakashima's just 20-15 this year, and Zverev leads their career head-to-head 2-0, with both wins coming in Grand Slams. Even with the crowd in Nakashima's corner, this will be a daunting challenge for the American.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-700) vs. Elise Mertens
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Andrey Rublev (-120) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Rublev has a three-spot edge in the rankings at No. 6, and the Russian has been in superior form recently, having reached a Masters 1000 final at the Canadian Open in the lead-up to the U.S. Open. His 4-3 overall head-to-head edge against Dimitrov includes a 4-1 advantage on outdoor hard courts, and one of those wins came at the U.S. Open. Rublev's 0-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, but he has had little trouble reaching that stage, as he's looking for his seventh quarterfinal in his last 10 Grand Slam appearances and third straight at the U.S. Open. Dimitrov is playing his 14th U.S. Open main draw and has only surpassed the Round of 16 once before.
Coco Gauff (-185) vs. Emma Navarro
This will be the rubber match between these two young Americans, as Gauff won 6-3, 6-1 on the hard courts of Auckland in January before Navarro got revenge on the Grand Slam stage with a 6-4, 6-3 win at Wimbledon in July. While Gauff's victory came shortly before Navarro really started to break out, it's still a better analogue for this match, as the third-ranked Gauff's game is much better suited to hard courts than grass. The reigning U.S. Open champion has won 10 consecutive matches at this venue, while the 12th-ranked Navarro came into this year's tournament with a 0-2 career U.S. Open record.
Honorable Mention
Frances Tiafoe (-120) vs. Alexei Popyrin
