Monday brings us Day 3 at the Australian Open and the final day of first round matches. The action is in high gear on DraftKings, as they feature their $15 Line Painter contest with $10k to first. Let's break down some of my top plays.
Check out our DFS Optimizer for full projections.
Top Tier
Elena Rybakina ($11,200) over Kaja Juvan
These two met in the second round here three years ago with Rybakina picking up a routine 2&1 victory. Juvan hasn't really done much since then to make you think a different result is incoming as her UTR is .2 lower compared to then and her last grand slam victory came at the 2024 Australian Open. Meanwhile, Rybakina is playing some of her best tennis having won the WTA finals.
Yibing Wu ($10,100) over Luca Nardi
Wu couldn't have asked for a better first round draw after not losing a set through three qualifying matches. Nardi is one of the weakest players in the tournament having never won a grand slam match across seven attempts. Wu most recently beat Fabian Marozsan who knocked off 24th seeded Arthur Rinderknech yesterday, and then took a set off Andrey Rublev. I don't think he'll be too popular considering his 168th ATP ranking, although his UTR is much higher at 61st in the world.
Middle Tier
Rafael Jodar ($9,400) over Rei Sakamoto
This is an intriguing matchup between two 19-year-old qualifiers. Jodar won the U.S. Open Juniors in 2024 and beat Learner Tien in the Next Gen ATP Finals in December, showing that his ceiling is high. He's over a half UTR point higher than Sakamoto, who has never defeated a 15 UTR.
Gael Monfils ($8,800) over Dane Sweeny
This will be the last Australian Open appearance for Monfils, who has historically played well down under with a quarterfinal showing in 2022 and a Round of 16 run last year. The 39-year-old is still playing well and gets a good draw against the Australian qualifier who has never won a grand slam match.
Lower Tier
Dino Prizmic ($7,900) over James Duckworth
Duckworth will have the home crowd on his side, but even that's only led to a 5-12 career record at the event. The career grinder is a steady baseliner but doesn't have much to hurt you with. 20-year-old Prizmic got through qualifying without dropping a set and is an up-and-coming player to keep an eye on.
Raphael Collignon ($4,500) over Lorenzo Musetti
I'm digging pretty deep for the upset here in the $4k range, but the sportsbooks have Collignon at roughly 23 percent to win, so it's not that much of a stretch. We know that Musetti's best surface is clay, where he's easily a top-10 player, but he's struggled at the Australian Open with a sub .500 record having never made the fourth round. Collignon played well in Brisbane, beating Denis Shapovalov and Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets.
